Billboard Hot 100 Update: Week of August 20th

In the run toward the end of the fall, this week's Billboard top ten shows major movement with two new songs entering the top tier and major records being broken.

1. Rude - MAGIC!
2. All About That Bass - Meghan Trainor
3. Stay With Me - Sam Smith
4. Break Free - Ariana Grande feat. Zedd
5. Fancy - Iggy Azalea feat. Charli XCX
6. Am I Wrong - Nico and Vinz
7. Problem - Ariana Grande feat. Iggy Azalea
8. Black Widow - Iggy Azalea feat. Rita Ora
9. Chandelier - Sia
10. Bang Bang - Jessie J, Ariana Grande and Nicki Minaj 

You read that right...that's three top 10's apiece for Iggy and Ariana this week. They join Adele and Ashanti as the only female artists to have three top 10s simultaneously, with Ariana being only in company with Adele for females with lead billing on all three tracks. Male acts who have completed this task: The Beatles (two weeks with 5 songs in the top ten), 50 Cent and T-Pain (both with four top ten songs at once), Akon, The Bee Gees, Chris Brown, Lil Wayne and Usher.

I'd like to point out how remarkable it is that Ariana and Iggy are the ones with three subsequent top tens. It's really hard to pinpoint who this is bigger for, because I wouldn't have expected it for either artist a few months ago. Ariana has definitely shed the Nickelodeon mold and is certifiably one of the world's biggest pop stars. She's listed as leading artist on all three tracks, and some might argue she's featured on "Bang Bang," but all three ladies pull similar weight on that song. Neither song sounds like each other, and with her album due to launch the day after the VMAs where she'll be performing twice, Ariana is going to be untouchable. She's a megastar. That might be hyperbole, but look at that impressive feat.

Similarly, this is just nuts to think that Iggy is a member of this club. We've heard the "white female rapper" argument over and over, and there was praise when she was able to land #s 1 and 2 simultaneously earlier this summer, but now she's got three songs in the top ten, two of which she's lead. For someone who many didn't think would be a star, she's shining a lot brighter than her counterparts, as not only one of the biggest female names in music of the moment, but one of the biggest rappers in the world right now. The list of artists/bands who have had at least three songs in the top ten at once includes a lot of big names and contains a handful of notable rappers who probably jumped this hurdle through tracks of their own and features. Iggy joins that prestigious list and breaks down major barriers.

Overall, it's pretty impressive that Ariana and Iggy were able to secure this record, let alone do it in the same week. This is big for the music world going forward. 

It looks like Sam Smith won't be getting his #1 with "Stay With Me" :( That's okay, the fact that he has any major success at all is a plus for the music world. A #2 peak isn't shabby at all. Adele, who many compare to Sam Smith, didn't capture her first #1, let alone worldwide success on this major a scale, until "Rolling In The Deep," which was the lead single from her second album. Still, Smith is performing at the VMAs, and depending on what he performs, "Stay With Me" could see a slight bump on the charts, or he could catalyze the launch of his next single, "I'm Not the Only One."

This will be the last week for "Rude" on top, as next week will either be "All About That Bass" or "Shake It Off" by Taylor Swift, which Billboard is hyping up for a huge opening week. Its sales are tracking lower than "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together," and nowadays, it is hard to debut at #1. With "Rude" falling and "AATB" skyrocketing, it's at least obvious the latter will trump the former, but where its for the #1 or #2 spot is still questionable. For "All About That Bass," the jump to #2 just adds onto an impressive run for a song that came out of nowhere and is possibly headed toward a #1 debut. We really need to keep an eye on Meghan Trainor's future. She struck the right chord of relatable subject matter + catchy beat + ear worm chorus = major success.

It looks like the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning debut of the music videos for "Break Free" and "Black Widow" did wonders for their chart positions. I've been saying for weeks that these songs would be top ten hits, and their tenures begin now. Which song will be bigger, though? Iggy's "Fancy" beat Ariana's "Problem," but I have a feeling "Break Free" will be more popular than "Black Widow." Don't hold me to that. Personally, I've had "Black Widow" in my mix since April, and "Break Free" joined when it made its July debut. As I stated above, though, I'm just glad to see the success of Ariana and Iggy.

"Am I Wrong" is falling, but it couldn't possibly be going any faster. Don't like that song. "Fancy" and "Problem" will probably drop a little faster due to the success of "Break Free" and "Black Widow," whereas Nico and Vinz have nothing else coming out. "Chandelier" is still holding tight at the bottom frame of the top ten, while "Bang Bang" clings to a pole position. The music video is coming Sunday, but streaming is tracked Monday to Sunday, so the real proof will come in two weeks when the song should burst near the top with the music video/VMA combo. Speaking of VMAs, they'll provide a big boost for some of these songs in two weeks, in addition to some songs outside of the top ten (I would say that includes "Maps," which fell out of this week's top ten, but I think Maroon 5 is performing a new single at the VMAs). Meghan Trainor, however, won't be performing and won't get the subsequent boost, but that song has been untouchable in its meteoric rise to the top, so I wouldn't bet against it to get to #1 as September approaches.

The previously mentioned "Maps" and Charli XCX's "Boom Clap" fall out of the top ten this week. We'll see if they can rejoin the ranks as summer hits like "Fancy," "Problem," and "Am I Wrong" wind down. At the very least, "Boom Clap" could see a boost when the movie it was featured in, "The Fault In Our Stars," is available on DVD in mid-September. That sounds crazy, but if ads capitalize on the song's success and soundtrack sales increase, it could happen. Another song to watch out for in the coming weeks is "Rather Be" by Clean Bandit, which is jumping up the iTunes charts and making an impact on radio. No VMA feature could hurt, but it may make a top ten appearance next week.

What do you think of this week's Billboard top ten? I'll be back tomorrow to update with song movement further down the chart, but in the meantime, give me your thoughts on these ten songs below!

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

In an era of comedy where funny ladies don't have to be front and center to steal attention, the Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series category is stacked with veterans, Emmy favorites, and one interesting newcomer. Let's analyze below...

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory (episode: "The Indecision Amalgation")
Julie Bowen - Modern Family (episode: "The Feud")
Anna Chlumsky - Veep (episode: "Detroit")
Allison Janney - Mom (episode: "Estrogen and a Hearty Breakfast")
Kate McKinnon - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Anna Kendrick")
Kate Mulgrew - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Tit Punch")

Bialik has a knack for submitting episodes where she has one great scene, but does not have an overall great performance throughout the episode. In a season where she had two standout episodes that I can think of off the top of my head (the Christmas and Valentine's Day episodes come to mind), she went for an episode that does have the most memorable scene for her character all season, but has her largely absent or not making an impact to the story. The scene in mind has her feeding into her boyfriend Sheldon's self-obsession in a hilarious manner with a twist ending that delivers huge laughs. Bialik acts it perfectly. However, the rest of the episode doesn't focus on her character and ends with her going with Sheldon to buy a new gaming system, and acting as the voice of reason. She doesn't get a lot of laughs, so she's really riding on one scene to get her this award. Of course, that's not the only factor. Bialik is a three-time nominee in this category, so she might be seen as overdue. Additionally, Bialik is lovable and empathetic, but also sarcastic and funny. That weird combo might work in her favor. One lady who is no stranger to the hardware is Bowen, who has won this award twice for her "Modern Family" role. Unfortunately, Bowen didn't have a standout storyline (or even episode) this season, so she already didn't have great odds going into this race. Her submission, "The Feud," doesn't have her at the forefront. Instead, she gets a story with some physical comedy where she contracts lice from her niece on the day of an important business meeting. The story has some potential, and Bowen definitely does the best with what she's given, but it's not a lot. She isn't the driving force behind the episode, doesn't have range, and it doesn't make an impact. Given that she's already won this award twice, there's no motivation to give it to Bowen for a three-peat. Chlumsky is a two-time nominee for her role on "Veep" as, essentially, the straight woman. That's a hard task in such a wacky ensemble, but this season did give Chlumsky's character, Amy, a chance to shine with her initial loss of the campaign manager position for her boss, Vice President Selina Meyer. She has a great episode where, before she is passed over for the position, she invites the rest of the staff over to gain their support and ultimately fails at being a good host. She also has a drunk scene at the end of the episode when she finds out she has lost the job. It's a slam dunk submission...if Chlumsky were to actually submit it. Instead, we get a background episode where Chlumsky is a supporting player to bigger stories going on around here. She gets a few laughs, but doesn't even really have a story to herself. It's a poor submission for a character that really needs an episode with a central storyline if the actress wants any chance at the Emmy.

Janney, an Emmy winner this weekend for her guest-starring turn on "Masters of Sex" is up for another award at the main ceremony next Monday, and this time for a completely different role. Janney plays the outrageous mother of Anna Faris, and while she seemed to be a scene-stealer in the beginning of the season that popped in and out casually, the show's first season eventually became centered around the odd couple duo of this mom-daughter team. As a result, both actresses received praise and Janney an Emmy nomination (Faris, one could argue, was snubbed). Janney is mostly known for her dramatic work, but in smaller feature films over the years, she has expressed a comedic side that is fully on display on "Mom," and in her submission episode, she gets to go all out. The episode finds her dealing with a comedic trope for "older" actresses: menopause. Of course, Janney gets to be over-the-top, but she's downright hysterical. There are moments when she's front and center, but she also weaves in and out of the episode's other main storyline, which finds her defending the honor of her granddaughter. She gets a lot of laugh out loud moments and is easily the most memorable part of the episode. She doesn't get a lot in terms of range (no quiet, emotional moments), but with a raucous performance like this, it doesn't hurt her chances. Plus, you know, the whole "I'm Allison Janney" thing. McKinnon snagged a surprise nomination here, and it's not hard to see why she's often called the standout of the current "SNL" cast. In her submission episode, she gets a few moments to shine, particularly the cold open and a skit during Weekend Update, where she gets to be over-the-top with a thick accent. She's just funny, and she's reminiscent of another "SNL" Emmy favorite, Kristen Wiig. Of course, we know Wiig never won an Emmy during her "SNL" tenure, and given that McKinnon is just in the beginning of her career on the show, I am inclined to think she won't be able to go where no "SNL" cast member has gone before. Compared to tapes Wiig submitted in years past (including her absolutely dynamite final episode that still didn't win her the hardware), McKinnon's tape is just okay. She isn't consistent in appearances, and her impact isn't too big by episode's end. The most impressive performance comes from host Anna Kendrick. The good thing is that Emmy voters have clung onto McKinnon, so she's likely to have many more chances at a win in the future. The final nominee, Mulgrew, comes from "OITNB," a show that, as has been discussed, is much different from all of the other nominated comedies. This is something that may work in Mulgrew's favor. To boot, she's got an episode that has her front and center including flashbacks, which give some context to her character. Where Janney lacks range, Mulgrew has it in spades. She's funny, cold, threatening, outrageous, over-the-top, reserved...she displays it all. In present day, she's showing new prisoner Piper who is the boss by starving her when she insults the food. She's scary and intimidating, and shows off an impressive stare. By contrast, her flashbacks show her reserved and shy around a group of "cool friends," from whom she aims to earn trust and respect. Here, she gets to be funny, but most importantly, she gets the audience's empathy. That is definitely going to help garner her some votes, and she's a serious threat for the win.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Allison Janney - Mom (episode: "Estrogen and a Hearty Breakfast")
2. Kate Mulgrew - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Tit Punch")
3. Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory (episode: "The Indecision Amalgation")
4. Julie Bowen - Modern Family (episode: "The Feud")
5. Anna Chlumsky - Veep (episode: "Detroit")
6. Kate McKinnon - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Anna Kendrick")

Janney's tape has a purely comedic performance where she gets to steal the show and score major laughs. It's easily the funniest tape of the bunch and it's a comedic performance through and through that begs to be noticed. The episode screams Emmy bait. Mulgrew gets a much more layered episode with a bigger range and more empathy, and it couldn't be a more different episode from Janney. I have Janney ahead, but arguments could be made that would put either lady on top. It's really just whatever voters are in the mood for voting. Bialik gets one really great scene, but not much else. Bowen is good, but nothing standout about her performance at all. The same can be said about Chlumsky to a lesser extent, and McKinnon is fun, but doesn't have enough impact to come close to winning the Emmy.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Kate McKinnon - Saturday Night Live
5. Anna Chlumsky - Veep
4. Julie Bowen - Modern Family
3. Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory
2. Kate Mulgrew - Orange Is the New Black
1. Allison Janney - Mom

McKinnon, Chlumsky, Bowen, and (to a lesser extent) Bialik are out. This is a two-horse race, and the problem lies in that it's two entirely different beasts competing for the title. On one hand, Janney is a comedic powerhouse, making every line hit with but-gusting laughs. She has the most memorable character of the bunch and she has moments throughout the 21-minute episode that let her shine. She's an Emmy darling (of seven previous nominations, she has only lost twice) and in a category that loves over-the-top actresses (think of recent winners from this decade like Megan Mullally, Jaime Pressley, and Jane Lynch), Janney has a great shot. On the other hand, Mulgrew plays a breakout character on a new hit show with an episode that puts her in control. She gets flashbacks that give her range and impact, as well as the all-important empathy from voters. She hops around, and while her performance isn't anywhere as laugh-out-loud funny as Janney's, she gets laughs, and shows off her dramatic skills as well. Two different performances, but only one trophy...it's not hard to see why these actresses tied at the Critics Choice Awards. But since only one can win at the Emmys, I've gotta go with Janney, whose tape is the funniest and whose Emmy history proves they can't get enough of her. If Janney loses to Mulgrew, at least she's already picked up an award this year for Guest Actress in a Drama Series. But if any other actress walks away with this award, we might need to start questioning the picks of the Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series panel (because I'm still flabbergasted by Merritt Wever's win last year).

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

In today's second post, I'll be analyzing the male companion in the guest acting in the drama categories. The nominees for Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series excel, above all else, at revealing darker shades to their characters in their episode submissions, making for a juicy race.

Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Dylan Baker - The Good Wife (episode: "Tying the Knot")
Beau Bridges - Masters of Sex (episode: "Manhigh")
Reg E. Cathey - House of Cards (episode: "Chapter 22")
Paul Giamatti - Downton Abbey (episode: "Episode 4.8")
Robert Morse - Mad Men (episode: "Waterloo")
Joe Morton - Scandal (episode: "Guess Who's Coming to Dinner")

As the lone "TGW" guest nominee this year, Baker now ties Michael J. Fox as the most-nominated guest actor in the show's history with his third nomination. Baker came back for a memorable episode this past season in which his new wife was on trial for the fake suicide/murder of her friend at a party at the couple's home. Baker, as a result, takes a bit of a backseat in this episode, but he's excellent throughout. Especially viewers with the show, you'll find that Baker's portrayal is the right kind of unsettling, where he is still funny, even charming, although you do not exactly trust him. He doesn't really have any scenes that he steals, but he does leave an impact by episode's end. It's great, but brief, work by Baker, and I'm not sure if it'll win him an Emmy. Bridges, much like his on-screen wife Allison Janney, was a bright spot in the first season of "Masters of Sex," playing a closeted provost at a hospital. In his episode, he is in hot water after his protege Bill's presentation describing his sex study is met with distaste and outrage. He gets a number of great scenes with Michael Sheen and Janney, as he also deals with the repercussions of his crumbling marriage and his guilt over his homosexual desires. It's a great tape for Bridges, as he juggles multiple stories and has a strong presence in the episode. You can really see the heartbreak as he tries to save his sinking relationship with his wife and his position at the hospital. He confides in Sheen's character and really stands out throughout the episode. It's a really solid episode, and while Bridges doesn't get any big scenes, he delivers a quiet, heartbreaking performance comparable to Janney's that could also seal the deal. Cathey was a surprise nomination, but fans have always had a soft spot for his character, Freddy. Cathey's submission is Freddy's biggest episode to date, and gives the actor an opportunity to really give some dimension to the man behind the ribs. As Freddy's friend Frank Underwood's star rises in the political world due to his new position as Vice President, Freddy begins to cut a deal to make his rib shack a national chain. However, to do this, Freddy is forced to deal with some skeletons in his closet, including his distant and dangerous son. As he tries to make amends, Freddy actually finds himself in the public eye when his son pulls a gun on a reporter. Controversy surrounds Freddy and leads to Frank ending their friendship, at least in the public eye, for political reasons. It's a heartbreaking episode for a character who we've never learned much about, and it works that this episode is almost all exposition to Freddy's life. Cathey appears regularly throughout the episode, delivering solid work, and he definitely gets empathy from the audience in his final scenes with Kevin Spacey, as he realizes his possible future of getting rich and moving away from a bad neighborhood are crushed with his son's legal issues. Among brighter co-stars, Cathey does manage to stand out, and it could be enough to surprise and steal the gold, especially from much more recognizable co-stars.

Paul Giamatti guest-starred as an American in the British show "Downton Abbey" this past season, and as is one of many problems with the show, it is hard for a character to stand out in a ridiculously huge ensemble. Giamatti gets some extra attention as he shares scenes with Maggie Smith and Shirley MacLaine, but he doesn't get many scenes of depth and they are spaced so few and far between that there isn't much of an impact left. Of course, Giamatti is a fine actor as has been evidenced for the better half of a decade and longer, but since his nomination does feel like a name-check already, I don't think the tape does many favors to push him to the winner's circle. Robert Morse, a constant presence on "Mad Men" since the show's first season, racks up his fifth nomination, (SPOILERS) his final one for the show's run. Morse's character dies in his submission episode, but it's a unique scenario: his death does not end his appearance in the episode. Morse has some pedestrian scenes in the first half of the episode, and suddenly dies off-screen. He does, however, return at the end of the episode for (and I'm not making this up) a song-and-dance number. It's more of a tribute to the actor (Morse is a multiple Tony Award winner), and definitely outside of the realm of comfort for "Mad Men." This tape is really going to have mixed feelings among the voters. I can imagine there will be some that will love the tribute to the actor. Others, like myself, will be confused and underwhelmed. I think that general disharmony toward the episode might prevent Morse from winning the award, in addition to the "Mad Men" acting curse and stronger performances. He does have impact, but range and emotion aren't on display here. For a tape that got a lot of buzz, I didn't see anything too special. The final actor nominated is Morton, a standout in the third season of "Scandal," playing the murderous and untrustworthy father of main character Olivia Pope. This episode is not the first time we meet Morton's character, but it is the first time we get backstory on the man. He has flashbacks, as well as present day interaction, with his daughter that detail their tumultuous relationship built on distrust. He gets range from being sympathetic to evil, he has loud outbursts and quiet moments, but he definitely does not have the audience's trust. He is sympathetic in some flashbacks, but those moments are tarnished with reveals later in the episode. Still, a good villain turn can sometimes contrast the sympathy that most tapes need in order to get to a win. Morton's performance certainly qualifies as that and he is an extremely strong contender for the trophy.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Beau Bridges - Masters of Sex (episode: "Manhigh")
2. Joe Morton - Scandal (episode: "Guess Who's Coming to Dinner")
3. Reg E. Cathey - House of Cards (episode: "Chapter 22")
4. Robert Morse - Mad Men (episode: "Waterloo")
5. Dylan Baker - The Good Wife (episode: "Tying the Knot")
6. Paul Giamatti - Downton Abbey (episode: "Episode 4.8")

Bridges has the strongest tape and makes the biggest impact out of all of his competitors. He gets different storylines and delivers many great monologues. Morton, on the other hand, has the benefit of flashbacks above his competitors, and is a morally gray character, making for some interesting contrast in his performance. Cathey is heartbreaking as Freddy's world goes from being full of hope to having lost many of the most meaningful things in his life, as a result of his friend's rise to the top. Morse gets the most unique showcase, but whether or not it is the best performance will not be something voters easily agree on. Baker is deliciously perfect in his role, but a small dosage of his charm and creepiness doesn't help his odds. Finally, Giamatti doesn't stick out from the rest of the ensemble barring the fact that he is Paul Giamatti, and his character (and performance) don't make the impact necessary for a win.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Dylan Baker - The Good Wife
5. Paul Giamatti - Downton Abbey
4. Robert Morse - Mad Men
3. Reg E. Cathey - House of Cards
2. Joe Morton - Scandal
1. Beau Bridges - Masters of Sex

Baker and Giamatti are most likely not going to win this category, and they'd have to rely on general goodwill for their shows and themselves as actors to garner the votes for a win. Morse's tape is too divisive, and I don't see this being the performance that finally breaks the "Mad Men" curse. I considered ranking him above Cathey, but I just don't see Morse winning with an episode like this that only has one standout moment that some people may not even like (like yours truly). Cathey, on the other hand, is less known, but at least has a good, substantial episode. Cathey may not be able to prevail over more well-known actors. Morton has a diverse, great submission episode, and "Scandal" is the defending champion here. He has range and impact, but the lack of empathy may hurt him (although it has also helped others win here in the past). That's why I'm sticking with Bridges for the win. It's a great tape that has him juggling multiple stories, each culminating in the portrait of a man whose life is falling down around him. Predicting a "Masters of Sex" actor to win both guest acting categories may seem outrageous, but it's also a testament to the standout performances from Bridges and Janney this season. Coincidentally, there are also two "Scandal" actors nipping at the bud in both categories. I would expect, if Bridges and/or Janney don't win, "Scandal" to steal the spotlight. For now, I'll say that the Scullys (Bridges and Janney's characters on the show) will go home with matching Emmy gold.

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

With the Creative Arts Emmys approaching this weekend, I'm planning on knocking out the last two guest categories, whose winners will be announced at the ceremony this Saturday. First, let's begin with Guest Actress in a Drama Series, a race with a big frontrunner who might get snubbed in favor of showier performances.

Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series
Kate Burton - Scandal (episode: "A Door Marked Exit")
Jane Fonda - The Newsroom (episode: "Red Team III")
Allison Janney - Masters of Sex (episode: "Brave New World")
Kate Mara - House of Cards (episode: "Chapter 14")
Margo Martindale - The Americans (episode: "Behind the Red Door")
Diana Rigg - Game of Thrones (episode: "The Lion and the Rose")

Burton has been a utility player on "Scandal" in the first two seasons, but the third season let her shine and collect her first nomination for the show (but her third for a Shonda Rhimes show -- she was nominated in this category twice for earlier seasons of "Grey's Anatomy"). She certainly has a very bait-y tape (SPOILERS) as we dive right into the beginning of the episode with a manic monologue delivered to her deceiving and closeted husband, building up to Burton taking a pair of scissors and murdering him in her office. It's a scene that grabs your attention immediately and a beautiful, over-the-top acting showcase for Burton. She's powerful, but delicately balances her character's desires of being in power and feeling heartbroken by her husband's betrayal. She is sent into shock after committing the murder, as her character is heavily religious and this is mortal sin. She remains mute for much of the episode, but her silence speaks volumes. Her next big scene doesn't really come until the end, when she finally explodes (again) and says her husband deserved to die. It doesn't make as big an impact as the first scene, but it exposes her true colors. These are the kinds of scenes that win Emmys, and it could definitely do the job for Burton, who easily gets the showiest tape of the category. Her only competition in that title is Fonda, whose tape doesn't have her showing up until the final five minutes of the episode, where she essentially chews up and spits out every character on screen. It does hurt that she doesn't make an appearance until the very end of the episode, but her performance is the last thing voters will remember. In her five minutes, Fonda is, like Burton, manic and angry, but it also grabs your attention. Burton has the upper hand in this battle of scene-chewery, but Fonda is a legend and that could help her chances. Janney had a banner year on television, stealing the show on two brand new series that couldn't be more different; she is nominated for Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series for "Mom," a traditional sitcom that allows her to be raunchy, loud, and crazy. Yet, her turn on "Masters of Sex" is the total opposite, opting for a quiet, subdued, but powerful performance. It's a testament to how great Janney is, and her two Emmy nominations make it quite obvious that she is worthy of praise. In her submission episode, we are introduced to Janney's character for the first time, knowing only that she is married to a closeted gay man. Unlike Burton's wrath against her secretly gay husband, Janney's character has a hint that something is wrong, but doesn't confront the situation. The episode instead sees Janney taking control of her own sexuality, exploring the study done by the series' main characters, Bill and Virginia. She has great moments throughout the episode that aren't over-the-top, but feel human and you certainly gain sympathy for a woman who has struggled to identify herself. She confesses to have never had an orgasm, and by episode's end, that is no longer the case. She finds satisfaction in a man who is not her husband, yet you feel happy for her, knowing that she is finally realizing what she missed out on all along. It feels like a complete arc in one episode for the character, full of self-realization and demanding empathy from the audience. Complete with Janney's history with the Emmys (hint: they really really love her) and a great tape, Janney is a frontrunner, for sure.

Mara submitted, well, her only option (MAJOR SPOILERS) as this is the episode where her character dies. Mara, whose character broke out in season one as a gritty journalist getting the inside scoop, meets her fate in the first episode of the second season when she is pushed in front of a moving train. It's not exactly an acting showcase, but Mara is found at the center of the major action of the episode. It finds her character continuing to dig for the truth about the corruption of her mole, Francis Underwood, before he ultimately kills her. She gets some good scenes, but nothing that really steals the show, and again, her biggest moment gets more notice for the shock factor instead of anything Mara does, particularly. It's still a good performance, and the impact is definitely there, but I'm not sure this will win Mara an Emmy. Martindale scores a second nomination in this category for the same show, but it's quite obvious that this is a case of name-checking. Martindale barely makes an appearance in her episode, but unlike Fonda, she has no impact in her short screentime. She has tiny, thirty second scenes scattered throughout the episode, but her only scene of impact comes at the end, but it doesn't make a big impression at all. This won't win an Emmy, and Martindale already has an award, so there's no need to award her for being overdue. It's a low impact performance in a category that has much stronger competitors. The same could almost be said for the category's final performer, Rigg. She appears much more frequently in her tape, but is nowhere near central to the story. She appears in the background of many scenes, but only speaks on a few occasions. She doesn't get many lines of great substance, but she is enjoyable when she's put front and center. Still, this is another performance that's not winning any Emmys.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Allison Janney - Masters of Sex (episode: "Brave New World")
2. Kate Burton - Scandal (episode: "A Door Marked Exit")
3. Jane Fonda - The Newsroom (episode: "Red Team III")
4. Kate Mara - House of Cards (episode: "Chapter 14")
5. Diana Rigg - Game of Thrones (episode: "The Lion and the Rose")
6. Margo Martindale - The Americans (episode: "Behind the Red Door")

This race, as seems to be the case with many of this year's categories, can be split right down the middle. Janney, Burton and Fonda have the best tapes. Janney has the total package: she is likable, sympathetic, but powerful although subdued. She gets a total arc and has great impact. Burton gets the showiest tape of the bunch (and from a show like "Scandal," that's no shock), and she definitely gets to show the widest range of emotions. She gets two big scenes that bookend an episode that gives a difficult and, at many times, dialogue-less performance. She's a huge threat to win the trophy. Fonda only has five minutes at the very end of her episode, but she milks them for what they're worth. She steals the show and has a big impact. It's not as great as Burton's, but it still works in her favor. Mara is less flashy in her role, but she still gets impact because of the episode's twists and turns. She is good as usual, but no better than what she's done in the past. Rigg provides some good moments in this big episode from "Game of Thrones," but ultimately doesn't do enough to warrant an Emmy. And if possible, Martindale does even less than that. She's not touching this award.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Margo Martindale - The Americans
5. Diana Rigg - Game of Thrones
4. Kate Mara - House of Cards
3. Jane Fonda - The Newsroom
2. Kate Burton - Scandal
1. Allison Janney - Masters of Sex

As I've said, Martindale isn't winning an Emmy for this episode which relegates her to popping up to deliver some directions and a few pieces of advice. It seems like a severe case of name-checking, which is unfortunate because there are better performances that should've gained recognition. Rigg is always fun on "Game of Thrones," but she's not central enough to the story to get the screentime or story to warrant an Emmy. The impact of her tape (as "Thrones" fans know) doesn't really settle in until a few episodes later. Mara's nomination surprised me a little bit, as I didn't think she would get an award for her brief appearance this season, but her episode isn't great enough to steal away from the category's other titans. Fonda's biggest drawback is that she's not in the episode until nearly fifty minutes in, then has one scene, and the episode finishes. However, it's a big scene where she is at the forefront, and that impact might be enough. Impact also works in the favor of Burton, who has a winning tape, for sure. She's got it all in one episode, not to mention that she's well-liked and "Scandal" won Guest Actor in a Drama Series last year, so we know voters do like these kinds of episodes and performances. However, I wouldn't bet against Janney, who has a great episode that showcases just how good of an actress she is. She gets major points for gaining the audience's sympathy and having a big moment at the end of the episode that'll have voters checking off her name. Janney is an Emmy powerhouse and her performance, while more subdued against flashier roles, has the best shot of winning this award on Saturday, but I would only be a little surprised if Burton happened to walk away with the award instead. It's a real subtlety vs. scene-chewery battle, but I'm picking Janney in the end.

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

In today's installment of Emmy Race Analysis, we're looking the Supporting Actor in a Comedy category, which is seeing some major turnover and welcoming some new contenders that could shake up the winner's circle. Let's examine their submission tapes and chances of winning below...

NOTE: There are mild episode spoilers, so if you are in the process of watching any of these series or do not want to be spoiled about character arcs, episode details, etc., proceed with caution.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Fred Armisen - Portlandia (episode: "Pull-Out King")
Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (episode: "Christmas")
Ty Burrell - Modern Family (episode: "Spring a Ding Fling")
Adam Driver - Girls (episode: "Two Plane Rides")
Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family (episode: "Message Received")
Tony Hale - Veep (episode: "Crate")

Armisen's nomination here is still very very confusing to me, and some of that may just come from my general distaste for Armisen. I didn't love him on "Saturday Night Live" although he did have some funny characters, but by the end of his run, I thought he was stale. I didn't expect a nomination for him here for his variety show, "Portlandia," but I thought I would maybe be pleasantly surprised when watching his submission. Unfortunately, this didn't do the trick at all. The way "Portlandia" is set up is that there are a few unrelated stories weaving in and out of every episode, with a focus on one main story. The main story has Armisen in drag and his female co-star, Carrie Brownstein, dressed up as a guy. That's really the length of the joke for Armisen's character, since the focus in the main story is really on Brownstein's character, the episode's titular "Pull-Out King." Brownstein is more impressive than Armisen, whose shtick doesn't hold up throughout the episode. If he expected dressing up in drag to get him votes, he shouldn't count on winning this award. In the smaller stories throughout the episode, he's fine, but he doesn't stand out. Not a good submission episode, especially if a large chunk of voters are unfamiliar with "Portlandia." Braugher was expected to be nominated here, but many (myself included) also thought his show, "Brooklyn Nine-Nine," would get a lot more Emmy love than it did. Instead, he is the show's only nomination, but he is an Emmy favorite, so it's not surprising to see him nominated here. With that previous Emmy status in mind, it was definitely possible that Braugher could still pull out a win even though the Emmys weren't too high on his show. Unfortunately, Braugher's submission doesn't do him many favors. On the plus side, he is involved in the story's main storyline, as opposed to a subplot, but sometimes smaller doses of his character, Captain Ray Holt, work better. In this episode, he shares most of his screentime with Andy Samberg, who gets the majority of the jokes and Braugher plays the straight man. He doesn't get a lot of laughs and overall, it's not his best showcase. With a better episode, he could've been a threat for the award, but that's not the case with this weak episode. Burrell is easily the standout cast member of "Modern Family," and it's episodes like his submission, "Spring a Ding Fling" that remind us why that is. Burrell's character, Phil, is hosting an awards ceremony for realtors and gets to fire off some funny and cheesy jokes, but his childish charm pulls it off. He gets to do an opening musical number which has multiple costume changes, including drag (which he effectively fumbles through, as opposed to Armisen). He gets some emotional moments and triumph in his final moments in the episode, when he wins Realtor of the Year and his daughter delivers the jokes he is unable to perform due to an injury (and yep, that's a moment of physical comedy). I think sometimes people underestimate Burrell because they've just come to expect greatness of him on this show, and an understated performance like this reminds people why Burrell is the "MF" standout. In this field, he could definitely pick up a second Emmy.

Driver is a rising star in Hollywood, as he is landing roles in major projects including the new "Star Wars" film. It's important to remember his character really started with his portrayal of misunderstood Adam on "Girls," a performance that was easily the highlight of the show's latest season. His submission is not his best episode of the season, but it's still good. He doesn't have a huge amount of screentime, but it's effective when he's on-screen, especially his last scene which has a big emotional impact that sticks through the end of the episode. That said, it's a largely dramatic performance. In fact, he really doesn't deliver a single joke in this episode. It's a good performance, but if you're going to give a dramatic performance an award in a comedy category, it'll need to be a great performance. If Driver had gone with an episode like "Incidentals," where he was the main focus and has some great moments, he'd be a bigger factor here. Now, he'll need to hope that an upset works out in his favor for the win. Ferguson, five years into his run on "Modern Family," had his breakout season as he faced a big storyline, preparing for his marriage and getting back into the corporate world. His episode is easily his strongest of the season as he deals with pre-wedding ceremony stress. It provides some laughs, but the episode's big moment comes toward the end when he confronts his father's discomfort with his marriage to another man. It allows a dramatic moment that audiences don't usually see on "Modern Family," and Ferguson plays it perfectly. As Mitchell, he has always faced disapproval from his father with his homosexuality, and this is the moment in the series when he finally fights back, conveniently right before his wedding. With an episode ending monologue, his character has the biggest impact. Is that one moment big enough to win him an Emmy? Well, there are a few factors to consider. One: this was a big moment for fans of the series, but voters in this category change every year, so some may not be familiar with the story. However, the moment still works even if you're just watching this episode as your first "MF" experience. Two: Ferguson is not laugh-out-loud funny on the show, and he often plays the straight man. However, because his co-star Burrell is nominated, he has the benefit of getting two tapes, and in Burrell's tape, he does get a funny storyline where he starts a new job. Burrell, however, also gets a very funny storyline where his kids play a joke and him, and his revenge (as plotted by his wife) goes horribly wrong. Both episodes help both actors, but Ferguson might be seen as more overdue. Of the three nominated cast members this year, he's the only one without a win. These factors could propel a fourth "MF" cast member to an Emmy win. But standing in his way is last year's victor, Tony Hale. Hale's win came as a surprise last year, but his scene-stealing performance as Gary is universally loved. Gary actually took a step back this season, but Hale's best episode is his submission, where Gary has a great moment with Selina when she finds out that she is going to be the next President of the United States. If you haven't seen this scene, find it on YouTube. You're guaranteed to laugh out loud. It's easily the funniest moment in any of these six episodes and Hale just knocks it out of the park. However, in the rest of the episode, Gary has funny moments but isn't the central focus. Then again, the same thing happened in his tape last year and he's now an Emmy winner. "Veep" is hotter than ever, and in a year with no frontrunner, Hale might be the de facto leader in the category and become a back-to-back winner.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Tony Hale - Veep (episode: "Crate")
2. Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family (episode: "Message Received")
3. Ty Burrell - Modern Family (episode: "Spring a Ding Fling")
4. Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (episode: "Christmas")
5. Adam Driver - Girls (episode: "Two Plane Rides")
6. Fred Armisen - Portlandia (episode: "Pull-Out King")

This episode has three "okay" tapes and three "great" tapes. Armisen's episode just makes me question how he even landed this nomination (name-checking seems likely). Driver is a great actor, but his performance isn't comedic and doesn't have an important enough impact. Braugher is great in his role, but this is not the showcase episode for him. Burrell runs the gamut in his episode with genuine laughs, physical comedy, empathy, and emotion. Ferguson gets nearly the same treatment except with a "bigger" performance with a larger impact. But Hale has the moment that will stick out in Emmy voters minds as the most genuinely funny, and this is a category that loves rewarding the funniest performances.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Fred Armisen - Portlandia
5. Adam Driver - Girls
4. Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine-Nine
3. Ty Burrell - Modern Family
2. Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family
1. Tony Hale - Veep

It's the same ranking as above, but for good reason. Armisen's nomination is unmerited and the tape proves it. His show can't compete with some of these other nominees, and there is absolutely nothing special about his performance. On the other hand, Driver is turning in a fantastic performance on "Girls," but it's not the kind of thing I see winning this award. Voters will have to be in tune with this season of "Girls" to know that he is really worthy of his nomination, but his submission episode doesn't show that off very well. Still, there's a chance he could really surprise. Really, him and everyone ranked above him have at least a decent shot at winning. I want to rank Braugher higher because the Emmys love him and could easily give it to him for that reason alone, but his episode is too weak and he has stronger competitors that also have proven Emmy track records. Burrell has a great shot at winning this, and his being ranked in third is based purely on competition. It's just hard to pick between these three, and I'm putting him in third because I think general buzz is on the side of the other two contenders, but Burrell's tape is your stereotypical winning tape and he's a beloved character. He can easily win his second Emmy. Ferguson is the most overdue in this category and has the buzziest episode with a dramatic moment mixed in with comedic elements, not to mention the empathy that sticks with you after the episode has finished. I just don't think voters love the character as much as they do others so I'm not sure he can really go all the way and win. That's why I'm sticking with, at least for now, last year's winner Hale. He's got a great episode, maybe even better than his winning submission last year, and his character is lovable and downright hysterical. But this race is definitely wide, wide open.

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Writing for a Comedy Series

Today's installment of Emmy Race Analysis looks at the Writing for a Comedy Series category, where modern half-hour comedies are facing off against the hottest "comedy" in the race for the gold. Who will win? Let's look at the nominated shows and episodes...

Best Writing for a Comedy Series
"Episode 305" for Episodes (written by David Crane and Jeffery Klarik)
"So Did the Fat Lady" for Louie (written by Louis CK)
"I Wasn't Ready" for Orange Is the New Black (written by Liz Friedman and Jenji Kohan)
"Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency" for Silicon Valley (written by Alec Berg)
"Special Relationship" for Veep (written by Simon Blackwell, Tony Roche, and Armando Iannucci)

"Episodes" is a show that the Emmys seem to like even though, uh, no one else really does. That sounds kind of harsh, but do you know anyone that watches this show? I don't. Anyway, it's about the television industry, so that probably plays a big part of why the Emmys like this show so much. Still,  I was expecting something a little more substantial or special, but this seemed to be a pretty typical episode of "Episodes." The most impressive part (if impressive is the word you want to use) was the sex therapy session between the show's main couple, which had a few dramatic moments, but it wasn't really anything to write home about. Overall, the episode had some funny moments, my personal favorite probably being the conversation between the head of the network and his assistant where there was clear misunderstanding about the use of the word "hard" (think about it). Still, this is not the kind of episode worthy of an Emmy. Ever since "So Did the Fat Lady" aired, I'd heard a lot of buzz about this episode of "Louie" which dealt with weight issues, and I assumed this would be a surefire contender for the writing Emmy. When I watched the episode, I thought it was a usual quality episode of "Louie," but I didn't see anything that made it stand out until the final eight minutes of the episode, largely taking place in a single shot and a single monologue by guest star Sarah Baker, where she dissected society's attitude towards overweight women in the dating world. It's a very impressive scene and a lot of what Louis CK writes for his scene's co-star is brutal and honest, and although not particularly funny, it is very enlightening. The scene alone could grab the Emmy for CK, and the fact that the episode overall is very good and the Emmys love him in general spells out good things for the future.

"Orange Is the New Black" is a show that is probably less defined by its episodes, but more by its moments. Because of the large ensemble, a lot of stories are shoved into one episode and focus is always changing. There may be standout scenes or storylines, but the episodes are forced to jump around to cover the bases, so it makes sense that the show submitted (and got nominated for) its pilot episode. This is the episode from the first season that mainly focuses on one story as we begin the journey with Piper as she heads to prison. We also get flashbacks that chop up the story and we're introduced to some supporting players whose roles are more defined in subsequent episodes. The central focus certainly helps, and we know that Emmy voters really loved the show since it led all comedies in nominations this year. The writing categories have been friendly to pilot episodes, although not as friendly as the directing categories (where, surprisingly, the third episode of the first season of "OITNB" is nominated). Still, this episode has a good balance of laughs, drama, heart...it's certainly in the race for the win. I wasn't expecting a nomination for "Silicon Valley," a show I did not find particularly funny, but luckily, Emmy voters nominated the standout episode of the show's first season, their season finale. This is definitely the best episode of "Silicon Valley" thus far, but in my opinion, that's not saying a whole lot. Still, I could be underestimating a show that surprised everyone and got nods for Comedy Series, Writing, and Directing. But the competition is a little too stiff here for a victory, at least this year. That stiff competition includes a show that, like "OITNB," is making a real threat to the Comedy Series gold this year, "Veep." They've garnered their first writing nomination this year (how they missed the past two years, I'm still confused), and they'd surely be the frontrunner to win, but they submitted an episode that (and I say this as a fan of the show) was not among the best episodes of the season. It's still a great episode as Selina and her staff travel to London, and it brings that biting humor that "Veep" is excelling at above any other show on TV. But episodes like "The Choice," "Alicia," "Debate," or "Crate" would've been much better nominees and definitely could've had a greater shot at taking home the gold. Those are writerly episodes, with "The Choice" tackling a hot button issue in abortion and "Debate" satirizing political debates and the behind-the-scenes jackassery of political staffs. Still, "Veep" is only getting more love from the Emmys and could surprise even though their nominated episode isn't their best display of what makes "Veep" downright hysterical.

Rankings based on strength of episodes:
1. "So Did the Fat Lady" for Louie (written by Louis CK)
2. "I Wasn't Ready" for Orange Is the New Black (written by Liz Friedman and Jenji Kohan)
3. "Special Relationship" for Veep (written by Simon Blackwell, Tony Roche, and Armando Iannucci)
4. "Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency" for Silicon Valley (written by Alec Berg)
5. "Episode 305" for Episodes (written by David Crane and Jeffrey Klarik)

"So Did the Fat Lady" is an excellent episode of television that has its strongest impact at episode's end, so that impression will stick in voter's minds. It also contains an important social message that the Emmys may wish to celebrate. "I Wasn't Ready" isn't a great example of the ensemble show that "OITNB" is now recognized as, but it's a well-written episode that really establishes the tone and charm that had audiences loving this show from the start. "Special Relationship" is not the best episode of season three of "Veep," but this show is the most consistently funny comedy on television and Emmy voters may know that, even if this episode isn't the best display of it. "Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency," by comparison, is the strongest episode of "Silicon Valley," but the competition is just too stiff and the show just isn't Emmy worthy...yet. Finally, "Episode 305" is an average episode of television, but in my mind, I can think of plenty of episodes from other shows that could easily take their spot in this category (like "Beach House" from "Girls," "The Quarterback" from "Glee," and "The Wedding" from "Modern Family", in addition to several other "Veep" and "OITNB" episodes).

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
5. "Episode 305 for Episodes
4. "Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency" for Silicon Valley
3. "Special Relationship" for Veep
2. "I Wasn't Ready" for Orange Is the New Black
1. "So Did the Fat Lady" for Louie

This is a very hard race for me to call. I think it's down to the top two, although I see a threat from #3-4. "Episodes" isn't winning this award. There is absolutely nothing special about that episode and it is not deserving of an Emmy. "Optimal" is a very good episode, and I think that if the competition were weaker, it would have a better chance. Unfortunately, it just doesn't stand up to the top three. I've already expressed my disappointment with the "Veep" submission in this category, but it's still a great episode and voters could reward it based on their knowledge of how regularly hilarious "Veep" is anyway. But I had the hardest time deciding where to slot "I Wasn't Ready" and "Fat Lady." I see the arguments for both scripts winning. "OITNB" is a new show with an easily accessible episode that is easy to follow, has comedy, exudes sympathy, and is charming, despite the show's setting. "Fat Lady" is impressive in its final act, makes the audience really think, and sticks with you long after it has ended. I think, in the end, that's the kind of writing that is celebrated: something that changes the way you'd previously thought. That's what good writing does, and that's why (for now) I'm going with Louis CK for a second win here, but that prediction might change before the envelope is opened.

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

In this installment of the Emmy Race Analysis, we'll be looking at the Guest Actress in a Comedy race, where half of the nominees hail from the same show, tapes overlap, and voter preference over comedic vs. dramatic will certainly determine the winner. But first, the nominees and their submitted tapes...

Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
Uzo Aduba - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
Laverne Cox - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
Joan Cusack - Shameless (episode: "Liver, I Hardly Know Her")
Tina Fey - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Tina Fey")
Natasha Lyonne - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "WAC Pack")
Melissa McCarthy - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Melissa McCarthy")

There is something to be noted about the episode submission process. In some categories, there are situations where more than one actor from a show is nominated in a single category. As a result, voters sometimes watch multiple episodes of the same show when voting in a single category. As a result, the nominated actors from the same show in that category appear in each other's episodes, giving what some may call an unfair advantage. In the heyday of "Modern Family"'s Emmy success, all four men of the adult ensemble (Ty Burrell, Eric Stonestreet, Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Ed O'Neill) were nominated, so each actor had their own tape, plus three others. Although their own submitted episode was specifically theirs, it certainly helped if they made an impact in their co-star's tapes as well. For example, when Ty Burrell won his Emmy for season two of "Modern Family," he submitted a great episode for himself, but also had equally good performances in his co-star's episodes that certainly helped voters realize he was the most deserving nominee. Is it fair that stars who have co-stars nominated get multiple chances to make an impression? Maybe not. But does it make a difference? I'd say yes.

This year, with "Modern Family" only having two men nominated in Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series, another series took the category dominance award, with "Orange Is the New Black" taking up half of the six nominees for Guest Actress in a Comedy Series. However, in a rare instance, two of the "OITNB" ladies in this category actually submitted the same episode. This, however, is not a fault of their own, but rather a result of the Emmy voting system. Nominated actors in the lead and supporting categories submit episodes after they have been nominated, but guest actors must submit episodes for consideration prior to nomination voting. In this case, co-stars from each other's shows cannot rely on each other to submit episodes that make each other look good, but rather focus on themselves. In this case, Uzo Aduba and Laverne Cox both submitted the episode "Lesbian Request Denied," which is each actress' strongest episode of season one. By a stroke of luck, they were both nominated (I only predicted Aduba to get nominated from "OITNB" in this category), and they cannot change their submission, so each woman is getting analyzed for the same episode. So which actress shines brightest in this episode? That depends certainly on who you ask. "OITNB" episodes are structured to include flashbacks, and this episode highlights flashbacks of Cox's character and her transformation from a man to a woman. It's a baity storyline that allows raw emotion and challenging acting obstacles on Cox's behalf. It's not a particularly funny performance, but the performance sticks with you. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Aduba is hysterical in this episode. Her screen time isn't as lengthy as Cox's, but when she's on-screen, she is unstoppable. She has one memorable scene after another (for "OITNB" fans: this episode alone contains 1. "chocolate and vanilla swirl," 2. "I threw my pie for you," and 3. peeing outside Piper's bunk) and is truly laugh-out-loud funny in all of her appearances. Aduba's character, Crazy Eyes, was the breakout character of the show's first season, and although she didn't get an episode dedicated to herself, this was the closest thing to a showcase for her. It just so happened to also be Cox's showcase episode, so we're in a unique predicament with two actresses submitting the same episode. The question is which performance will voters prefer: the more dramatic but larger and emotionally effective showcase for Cox or the show-stopping, hysterically outrageous, but much shorter performance from Aduba?

Joan Cusack's show, "Shameless," made the switch from drama to comedy categories this year, and as  a result, she retains her nomination in the guest acting categories, but now as a comedic actress. Thankfully, this does wonders for Cusack because her character has always been comedic on a show that rides the boundary from time to time. When competing in the dramatic categories, Cusack always was a quirky nominee, with her performances always being more obviously comedic than dramatic, but now she fits right in. This could definitely propel her to a win, especially now that she's on her fourth nomination for "Shameless." Her episode is great, in which she plays a manic bride-to-be who arranges an underground liver transplant for her barely conscious soon-to-be husband (yep, you read that right). It's about as ridiculous as it sounds, and only an actress like Cusack could pull of the utter insanity of it all while retaining moments of empathy for her character and delivering some killer one-liners. To call Cusack the dark horse in this race would be putting it lightly; she is fully in this for the win. Tina Fey hosted the season premiere of "SNL," and while she is always delightful, there was not a whole lot that was memorable about this appearance, especially weighed against Fey's previous victory in this category for her uncanny impersonation of Sarah Palin. Yes, that was one skit and now she has a whole episode, but nothing is as memorable as that performance. The highlight is probably the spoof of the comedy series "Girls" in which Fey plays a new girl named Blerta from Albania, but beyond that, Fey doesn't shine brighter than some of the other cast members. She's good, yes, but it feels like she's just one of the regular cast members, and that's probably because she used to be one of them. I just don't see Fey winning an Emmy for a performance that's good, but not great.

Referring back to the "OITNB" situation, Natasha Lyonne rounds out the trio from the series nominated in this category, but her presence does less for Cox and Aduba than their tape does for her. Neither episode really helps the actresses out, because while "Lesbian Request Denied" puts a focus on Cox and Aduba, they are barely present in Lyonne's tape, "WAC Pack." This is where things get interesting: Cox gets a mostly dramatic story, whereas Aduba is all about the laughs. Lyonne falls somewhere in between. She gets very funny lines, but her story also elicits empathy from the audience and allows for some more dramatic moments. If voters are torn between Cox and Aduba, Lyonne might end up being a happy medium. The focus on the "OITNB" ladies might be on Cox and Aduba, but Lyonne cold be a surprise winner. Finally, Melissa McCarthy is nominated again for hosting "SNL," but as I've said before, her appearance this time, while funny, is not as good as her last stint, which I really thought she'd win an Emmy for. That did not happen, which makes me doubt that a weaker episode like this could do the trick. Yes, stranger things have happened, but McCarthy's episode puts a focus on her strength in playing weirdos, and that doesn't give a lot of room for range, which voters look for. Yes, she can definitely still win because she is funny, even hysterical at points in this episode, but she's got stronger competitors.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Laverne Cox - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
2. Uzo Aduba - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
3. Joan Cusack - Shameless (episode: "Liver, I Hardly Know Her")
4. Melissa McCarthy - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Melissa McCarthy")
5. Natasha Lyonne - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "WAC Pack")
6. Tina Fey - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Tina Fey")

Cox delivers the overall most impressive performance, but Aduba's portrayal certainly requires a specific skill that she absolutely nails, so that cannot be discredited. Cusack is nuts in her tape, but she gets the all-important range and empathy. McCarthy is very funny, but doesn't travel too far out of her comfort zone. Lyonne is a dark horse, bringing in an understated but funny performance. Fey has the weakest tape of all the nominees.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Tina Fey - Saturday Night Live
5. Natasha Lyonne - Orange Is the New Black
4. Melissa McCarthy - Saturday Night Live
3. Joan Cusack - Shameless
2. Laverne Cox - Orange Is the New Black
1. Uzo Aduba - Orange Is the New Black

The only one I would say has close to no chance of winning is Fey. It's not like she's in dire need of an Emmy win, her tape is just okay, and the competition is honestly just too strong. Any of the rest of the five, though, I can see winning. Lyonne is the dark horse that we really should be watching out for, but I can't rank her any higher because her competitors are just too strong. Still, she can definitely win this. She has the right balance of range and empathy, plus she's downright funny. McCarthy is great in her episode, and with voters nominating her again this year for "Mike and Molly" in the Lead Actress in a Comedy Series category, it's possible that Emmy voters are falling back in love with her. Cusack is finally where she belongs, and she can be welcomed to the comedy categories with a win. She's the most overdue of all the contestants, has a very baity storyline, and she's a well-respected actress. But interestingly enough, this race comes down to the two "OITNB" ladies with the same tape. Cox's win would be historical: she's already the first transgender nominated for an Emmy, and a victory would make her the first transgender winner. She's got a tape that almost has it all, including a transformation, raw emotion, laughs, and a central focus. Her largest obstacle, though, and the one that I think will win, is her co-star Aduba. The Emmy voters clearly loved "OITNB," and anyone that watched the first season instantly loved Aduba's performance as Crazy Eyes. She's the most recognizable character from the show, she delivered memorable moments in almost every episode she appeared, and she's portrayed by a fresh actress in her first major role. It's a story that seems tailor made for an Emmy win, and I think her flashier moments will overall lead to a victory in this category.