State of the Race (Oscars): January 24th

"State of the Race" is my column to give predictions on upcoming awards ceremonies. I will provide a ranked list of the nominees and commentary, and I will update once a week. To start off, with a little over a month before the ceremony, I'll provide my thoughts on this year's Oscars race.

BEST PICTURE
1. American Hustle
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Gravity
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Captain Phillips
6. Dallas Buyers Club
7. Her
8. Philomena
9. Nebraska

Essentially, this is a three-way race. The race for Best Picture has essentially narrowed down to American Hustle, Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. Each film has received universal praise and a great number of precursor awards from critics groups. American Hustle took the Golden Globe for Best Comedy, while 12 Years a Slave took Best Drama at the same ceremony. Less than a week later, the Screen Actors Guild award gave its' Best Ensemble reward (their equivalent to Best Picture) to American Hustle, further launching that movie's status as frontrunner after a strong showing days earlier at the Academy Awards nomination announcement, leading all films with 10 nominations (Gravity and Slave, by comparison, had one less nomination with 9). Many thought that sealed the deal for AH, but then the Producers Guild of America handed out their yearly honors and threw everyone for a loop when they announced their Best Picture award ended in a tie between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. Now the race is wide open, the first time that has happened in quite some time. Personally, I'm thrilled. With all of these precursor awards and predictability being the way it is nowadays, I am looking forward to an Oscar night where the big award is really up in the air. For now, I'm giving the edge to AH because it seems like the Academy just really loved that movie (it awarded it four acting nominations, only the fifteenth film in history to do so). 12 Years a Slave still has a great chance, as does Gravity (a little less likely because a space film has never won Best Picture, but there's a first for everything, right?). The next big precursor is the Directors Guild of America awards, which are being handed out this weekend. Alfonso Cuaron is expected to win for his (excuse the pun) out-of-this-world work on Gravity, but if David O. Russell for American Hustle or Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave takes the award, either film could experience a huge push. As for the rest of the films in the category, there's a very minimal chance of any of them winning, but if I had to rank them, that's where they'd go. The Wolf of Wall Street had some early controversy, but that seems to be setting aside, plus the Academy really liked the movie given a surprise nomination for Best Supporting Actor. Captain Phillips and Dallas Buyers Club were also both well-liked, but have better shots at being rewarded elsewhere. Her, an early-season frontrunner, will need a lot more buzz in the coming weeks to get anywhere near the top. Philomena was a movie that was really well-recieved by voters, but probably not enough to get it a victory. Same for Nebraska, but Philomena was definitely a less-divise film so it has a slightly better chance. Regardless, this race is definitely down to the top three, and it is the most exciting Best Picture race in recent history.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
2. Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
3. David O. Russell for American Hustle
4. Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Alexander Payne for Nebraska

Again, this race seems to be down to the top three contenders. As I stated above, Cuaron seems very likely to win the DGA award this weekend which would solidify his frontrunner status. Cuaron had such a huge hand in getting this movie made, developing the technology to make it possible, and even with the technical achievements, he still made a realistically human film that puts him ahead of McQueen and Russell. Still, it's possible those other two can take the Best Director prize, especially since Best Picture and Best Director have not matched only 23 times (out of 85 years). I'll give the edge to McQueen, mostly because Russell has been praised for being an "actor's director," so I imagine his work would have a better chance of being celebrated in the acting categories via one of AH's four nominated actors and actresses. Scorsese and Payne don't have a really great chance, and again, that probably has to do with less overall buzz for their films. I have Scorsese ahead of Payne because Scorsese's film is just a little more exciting, and that helps over a film like Nebraska.

BEST ACTOR
1. Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
2. Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street
3. Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave
4. Bruce Dern for Nebraska
5. Christian Bale for American Hustle

I called way back in November that McConaughey could be a dark horse in this race, but now he has assumed the role of frontrunner. After picking up the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild award, McConaughey is on a hot streak, and with buzz for his film picking up, his chances are only bettered. It would seem that McConaughey is a good bet for the award, although he is definitely not a lock. In fact, this race is pretty close. DiCaprio is second for me, just because his performance (from what I've heard) really makes the movie the powerhouse it is, and Lord knows DiCaprio is overdue for some recognition, so maybe this is his year. Then again, Ejiofor had a lot of early buzz in this category, and there is a very good chance that if 12 Years makes a resurgence in the Best Picture and Best Director categories, that could help Ejiofor out tremendously. Dern's performance has been triumphed for months now, and many liked to think he was a frontrunner, but I never thought that performance would compare to the showier ones in this category. Still, it is hard to deny Dern's likability and his legacy in the industry can earn him votes. Bale snuck into this competitive category over other likelier nominees like Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips and Robert Redford for All Is Lost, but Bale obviously has a heck of a performance on his hands, but in a tough category like this, he needed precursor wins and more buzz to get to the top, so he probably won't prevail here.

BEST ACTRESS
1. Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock for Gravity
3. Judi Dench for Philomena
4. Amy Adams for American Hustle
5. Meryl Streep for August: Osage County

Unlike Best Actor, this race seems to have a pretty clear frontrunner who will likely win on Oscar night. Blanchett has collected almost every single precursor award and this category has never been out of her grip since the beginning of the season, so she seems to be a very likely win here. Her closest competitor is Bullock, who could see some residual love thrown her way if Gravity picks up Best Picture and/or Best Director. Bullock's performance, it should also be reminded, is the most physical of any performance here, and the most demanding performance (physically and emotionally) this year. I can totally see the Academy going for that (although her lack of precursor love won't help). Dench seems to be placed solidly in third, but again, I don't see her winning. She is Philomena's best shot at a win, but I'm not confident she'll get anywhere close. A lot of people think Adams is a threat to take the statue, I guess because of her Globes victory of Streep, but this was a performance many were not sure would even get nominated (RIP Emma Thompson's should-been-guaranteed Oscar nom for Saving Mr. Banks). So I wouldn't place her in the top tier. Maybe some residual love for American Hustle, but for now, I'm keeping here in fourth. And Streep is another nominee who many weren't sure if she would make it, and since the movie has the least amount of buzz here, she's at the bottom of the barrel (I'm sure her three previous Oscars will comfort her).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave
3. Bradley Cooper for American Hustle
4. Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips
5. Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street

The closest thing to a guarantee for this year's Oscars. Leto has dominated the awards scene and I don't see him stopping here. It's the bravest performance, the most transformative, and the most important. Next in line is Fassbender, who was seen as Leto's main competitor, but since Leto has won every award, Fassbender's buzz has likewise fallen. In addition to his public announcement that he would not campaign for this award, I don't see him overthrowing Leto at the last second. Cooper is riding the wave of love for AH, but his nomination was definitely one of the more expected nominations for the film (as opposed to Bale and Adams). He could also ride the wave of buzz to move higher on the list, but not over Leto. Abdi is nominated for his feature film debut, a huge accomplishment, and as Captain's sole acting nomination, it is quite a feat. He definitely has a big arc in the movie, but I don't think he'll get past these other guys. Finally, Hill was this year's WTF nominee after getting nearly no pre-Oscars nomination recognition. This may show that the Academy really does like his film, but I don't think it proves that he's a frontrunner. Leto all the way.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave
2. Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle
3. Julia Roberts for August: Osage County
4. June Squibb for Nebraska
5. Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine

Probably the bardest acting category to predict, this one is Nyong'o vs. Lawrence. There are a lot of factors going into this race. Nyong'o is the fresh new face. She is nominated for her feature film debut, a bright young African American actress who has a fearless performance in a major contender for Best Picture. She is primarily going up against Jennifer Lawrence, last year's winner for Best Actress for her performance in Silver Linings Playbook. Lawrence is still Hollywood's "It" girl, following the success of The Hunger Games sequel, Catching Fire, and her turn in American Hustle, the highlight of the film for many moviegoers. Lawrence is still extremely big, so a win here would attract a lot of attention, especially if it is a second win for an actress who is only 23 and who won her first Oscar just last year. Those factors could easily work against Lawrence. To put things into even more perspective, the performances are polar opposites. Nyong'o is silent and triumphant, using her moments of weakness to let her talent shine. Lawrence is the kind of scene-chewer that you'd expect to rack up awards. Lawrence took the Golden Globe, Nyong'o took the SAG. This one still doesn't have a clear conclusion. This is the nail-bitter of the season. I'm giving the edge to Nyong'o for now, just because I think there might be a stigma against Lawrence for voters who'd want to reward this young actress two years in a row. There are three other actresses in this race. The only one semi-close to Nyong'o and Lawrence is Roberts, whose fearless performance is her grand return to the Academy Awards (her last nomination came in 2000 when she won Best Actress for Erin Brockovich). She'll need a little more buzz if she wants a shot at the win. Squibb is the veteran here; much like her co-star Dern, she's getting buzz late in life for this spirited performance. Unlike Dern, she has less buzz and less of a chance against two younger stars. Hawkins was a bit of a surprise nominee (although yours truly picked her), and she's not strong enough to take the award.

Check back next week for more Oscar buzz-tracking ahead of Hollywood's biggest night!!

Evan

What I'm Doing in...January!

This is the "What I'm Doing in..." feature. I'll do this once a month, providing updates on what movies I've seen, TV shows I'm obsessed with, and albums I can't stop listening to. Check it out!

MOVIES:
As you all know, awards season is upon us. For entertainment junkies like me, this is the closest thing we get to Christmas outside of December, and I love it. In recent years, I've tried to make really good attempts at catching a majority of the year's big awards players, and this year is no different. I've watched a bunch of them lately, so I'll just give a quick run-down of what I've seen recently and what I thought of it. You might be surprised...

AMERICAN HUSTLE: I started off my winter break by seeing this one with my dad, and I had sky-high expectations. They were mostly met. David O. Russell does a great job of telling characters' stories, and it's no surprise that this film and his hit from last year, Silver Linings Playbook, joined an elite group of movies to earn nominations in all four acting categories. Everything about the movie was great, although I was a bit confused in the beginning. Production value, hair and make up, it was all great. The performances are what I loved the most here. I thought Amy Adams and Christian Bale were pretty good, but the movie's best performances for me were from Jennifer Lawrence and Bradley Cooper. Of course, I love me some JLaw, and I was blown away by her performance here. All the buzz is absolutely worth it. But Cooper really impressed the hell out of me here. I really enjoyed his performance in Playbook last year, but I thought he was outright phenomenal here. All in all, a great movie that is much deserving of its buzz as a possible Best Picture contender.

FROZEN: I loved this movie. This threw me back to the Disney classics, reminding me of my two favorite "heyday Disney" movies, The Lion King and Beauty and the Beast. First of all, it is a beautiful movie, it just looks great. The voice cast is really great. Kristen Bell plays nerdy so well and Josh Gad really killed it as Olaf, who is guaranteed to become a Disney staple. The music is what launched this movie into the stratosphere. If Idina Menzel's performance of "Let It Go" does not take the Oscar for Best Original Song, there will have been a serious injustice. The rest of the movie's songs are great, but I've admittedly had "Let It Go" on constant replay since I saw the movie about a month ago. Not only is this my favorite animated movie of the year, but it is among my overall favorites of the year.

DESPICABLE ME 2: I didn't see the first one and didn't have a major desire to see this one, but the whole family sat down to watch it so I figured I would check it out. I ended up being the only one who stayed awake for the whole thing. It was a really cute movie, and those Minions aren't that annoying, which is good. It's not spectacular and seeing it right after seeing Frozen probably killed any admiration I would've had for this movie, but it was still pretty good, I thought.

PRISONERS: This one hasn't really racked up any awards love this season, although it did get a much-deserved Oscar nomination for Best Cinematography. Man, it's such a shame because one of this year's darkest movies deserves a lot of attention right now. This movie is very dark, very depressing. It takes the life right out of you. It is tense and scary in a very real way, and it stuck with me for a while. I wish Hugh Jackman was getting more buzz, because I think his performance here rivals what he did in Les Miserables last year. I would recommend you check this movie out if you want a twisty, dark thriller.

SAVING MR. BANKS: A movie that was unfairly ignored by the Academy Awards. It only landed one nomination for Best Score, but really deserved more than that. A lot of people say the movie is overly cheesy and gooey, but that completely worked for me because I really loved this movie. The story was a difficult one to convey, but it was done with ease here. Emma Thompson absolutely shined here and her snub was the most difficult pill for me to swallow on Oscar nominations morning. Tom Hanks didn't generate a whole lot of buzz for his performance in this movie, but he was pretty good. Colin Farrell surprised the hell out of me, and I thought he was pretty darn awesome in this movie. This was a feel-good kind of movie that reminded me of The Help and I'd recommend it to just about anybody.

FRUITVALE STATION: A movie that started out this summer with substantial buzz, but ended up dying out by the end of the year. I wasn't the biggest fan of this movie, but I did think the story was thin until the real action kicked in with about a half hour left. Michael B. Jordan, whom I've followed since his performance on the TV series Friday Night Lights, turned in a really great performance, and the movie has an unabashedly realistic feel, but it feels like not much is happening until the train station drama begins. The movie gets better from there, but I can see why the movie was ignored by a majority of film-rewarding bodies.

AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY: ...or as I like to call it, Screaming: The Movie. This is an actor showcase kind of movie. The screenplay exists to give almost every character their big "moment." The movie didn't have a whole lot of momentum going into awards season after some initial hesitation, but I liked it overall. Meryl Streep was really good, but my favorite performance was from Julia Roberts, who was fearless and unforgiving as the tired daughter. Julianne Nicholson turned in a subtle, phenomenal performance that should be recognized. I've seen this online, but man...I can only imagine what David O. Russell would've done with this movie.

BLUE JASMINE: I've admittedly only seen one other Woody Allen movie before this one, and that would be Midnight in Paris, a movie that I really really loved. I was less impressed with this movie. Best Actress frontrunner Cate Blanchett is absolutely the best part of the movie, but I'm not even sure if she's worthy of the award, although her frontrunner status makes it look like my opinion won't matter anyway. Supporting Actress nominee Sally Hawkins was just okay, but I wasn't wildly impressed by the performance. There were other better supporting performances that got no recognition this year. The screenplay is good, but after the genius that was Midnight in Paris, this was slightly disappointing.

ENOUGH SAID: No Oscar nominations for this movie, but some Golden Globes and SAG love for this romantic comedy starring Julia Louis-Dreyfus and the late James Gandolfini. The screenplay is pretty good, but these two actors sell it really well. Louis-Dreyfus gives a fantastic performance, the complete opposite of her current role on the TV series Veep. Gandolfini is also very good, a total opposite of what you might expect from him. I can see how this movie didn't get Oscar noms, but a cute movie nonetheless.

DALLAS BUYERS CLUB: This movie houses two of this year's biggest performances, Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto. After seeing both actors take the Golden Globes and SAGs, I knew I had to watch the movie sooner rather than later, and I must say I was certainly impressed. Leto is fearless in this role, and it is a hell of a role to tackle, so his frontrunner status is well-deserved. But I was even more impressed by McConaughey who absolutely disappeared in the role. You don't see the romantic comedy guy from the early 2000s in this performance. Instead, it's like watching a veteran actor give a masterclass. If both actors take the Oscar, I will be extremely content.

INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS: Well, it definitely could've been called "Take A Dump on My Face" and that would've been entirely appropriate. The cinematography here is even bleak, and it matches the tone of the rest of the movie. Oscar Isaac is fantastic, and those vocals (which were apparently live) are phenomenal. The music was my favorite part of the movie. The movie was pretty much ignored at the Oscars, which is fine because it does get a little slow toward the middle which brings the whole movie down a notch, but overall it was a solid attempt.

I still have a few more movies I need to watch including 12 Years a Slave, Captain Phillips, Her, Philomena, and Rush. I also still have to see Anchorman 2 and The Conjuring for purely entertainment reasons. Then I will be able to judge my favorite of 2014.

TELEVISION:
Don't worry, if you're not watching a certain show on TV, there's a good chance I probably am. Here is what I'm currently loving:

THE GOOD WIFE: What a resurgence! TGW, in its fifth season, is better now than it has ever been, and the arc of the season has brought the show back to life. If you've never watched an episode of The Good Wife, you could start right at the beginning of Season 5 and enjoy the hell out of yourself. The show got some renewed Golden Globes love, and my sincere hope is that the Emmys take notice of what a kick-ass season the show has had. It is definitely one of my favorite dramas on the air right now.

REVENGE: A huge favorite of mine during its first season, we can all agree that quality went downhill last season. But a change of show runner has lit a fire under this show and it is back to its origin season excellence. Emily's latest mess has had quite a few juicy turns, and this season is really just a lot of fun to watch. The latest developments in Emily and Daniel's relationship is amazing to watch, quite a few jaw drops from yours truly. If you passed on this season after being disappointed by the confusion of Season 2, get back on this train, fast.

MOM: It is by no means one of the best comedies on television, but you'd be hard pressed to find a better mother/daughter duo on TV right now than Allison Janney and Anna Faris. These two are knocking it out of the park and I'm hoping Emmys are watching and getting ready to reward them with nominations. The show has focused less on Faris' character's work life and more on her interaction with her family, including her mother, played to utter perfection by Janney who could honestly win awards for years to come in this role.

THE BLACKLIST: One of the best new shows of the 2013-2014 season, I didn't start the season until Thanksgiving break, but I got through it in two days. It is addictive and smart, the kind of show that blows up right from the start, which has happened with this one. James Spader is fantastic, and he got that much-deserved Golden Globes nomination. Last night's episode featured a big twist that I can't wait to see unfold in the weeks to come, and if you haven't watched an episode yet, start from the beginning and get caught up in a matter of days.

THE MINDY PROJECT: I was as disappointed as everyone else when this show didn't love up to its potential last season. Things started changing toward the end of the season and now, Season 2 has had a huge turn-around. Sophomore slumps be damned! This show is hotter than ever. Mindy Kaling and her team have finally fully realized their characters and the episodes couldn't be funnier. The ratings are low, but hopefully Fox keeps faith that this show is still growing and delivering huge laughs every week.

BROOKLYN NINE-NINE: The newest series to win the Golden Globe for Best Comedy Series, this new show is one that is superiorly confident of itself, which is awesome. Andy Samberg leads a great ensemble featuring standouts Joe Lo Truglio and Chelsea Peretti (her mere presence makes me howl). This reminds me of the greatness The Office and Parks and Recreation had in their heyday. I know a lot of people don't love Samberg, but I would encourage you to check out this show anyway, I don't think you'll regret it.

AMERICAN HORROR STORY: COVEN: Oh lord, where do I even start? I liked season one, I loved season two...what words do I even use to describe this witch-themed season?! Wednesday nights are the highlight of my TV-watching week and every episode gives me anxiety and life itself. Everyone is out-doing themselves this season. Jessica Lange is as good as ever, Kathy Bates is doing great work in a smaller role, and Emma Roberts, who I didn't really respect as an actress before this, has impressed the absolute hell out of me playing the perfect bitch. The star of the season, though, is Angela Bassett. Give her all of the awards. I've never watched a performance like this and known instinctively that the actor/actress was having the time of their life. It's okay, Angela, your experience is my gain.

SCANDAL: What more is there to say about this show?! If you watch Scandal, you know that every episode is an emotional roller coaster and what the writers have done this season is what most shows never fulfill in a whole run. The show, like AHS, is just immense fun to watch and the actors are having a great time. I don't know how much longer we need to wait for Kerry Washington to get some kind of award for the show, so let's get that handled!

BREAKING BAD: My final entry is a bit out of place, but I just started bingeing on BB at the beginning of the new year. I'm through the first three seasons, and I'm definitely seeing why people love this show so much. It really is very well done, and apparently the final two seasons are the best so I'm even more excited to finish things up. I'll let you know my thoughts on the last two seasons when I finish (hopefully within the next few weeks).

MUSIC:
Music is a constant in my life, so here are some artists/albums I've been loving on in January...

THE DRIFT by Michelle Chamuel and Arjun Singh: Michelle Chamuel, as fans of The Voice know, came in second place on the reality competition, but has been working her tail off on multiple projects. This one is an EDM-influenced EP that I cannot stop listening to. First single, "Not Now," got me really interested with its dark undertones and relatable lyrics, in addition to that unrelenting bass. The whole EP is just as good, the highlight being the ethereal banger "Floating," which needs to be used in a TV show, like, yesterday.

TRIBUTE by John Newman: You might've heard his single, "Love Me Again," which is working its way up the charts as we speak, but I encourage you to check out his entire album. It has a big band sound and he has such a distinctive voice that you can't help but not be drawn in. The British reign of pop music continues with Newman, who can deliver a real foot-stomper like "Losing Sleep," and can reign in those emotions and put exactly what you're feeling into words, like the beautiful closing ballad "Down the Line."

IS THERE ANYBODY OUT THERE? by A Great Big World: "Say Something" is currently one of the biggest songs of the moment, but the rest of the debut album from A Great Big World is much, much happier. The band's music is just infectious and fun to listen to. Opener "Rockstar" is a great jam, but the restrained moments like "I Don't Wanna Love Somebody Else" and "You'll Be Okay" are standouts. Just skip over "Say Something" to keep yourself in a happy place!


So that's what I'm loving on this month...let me know in the comments section what movies you've loved, TV shows you're bingeing on, and what albums are on repeat for you! I'd love to see what you're all excited about :)

Evan

I'm Back!

Well, I'm back at it again! After many attempts to launch and re-launch (and re-launch) this blog, I'm here once again, but I'm definitely bringing a new approach to how I run things. I'm not going to update the blog every day, maybe once a week, with a broad overview of things I like in the world of entertainment. Maybe I'll do an album or movie review here and there, but we'll see. My main purpose is to get writing again, and I'm really excited about that prospect.

Oscar season is upon us, and my hope is to do at least one column a week on the Oscar race. Definitely look forward to that. Otherwise, keep checking back and checking my Twitter @evan_cuneo for updates on when I'm posting! Thanks for coming back and I hope you'll return :)