2014 TV Evannies Awards Announcement -- Writing and Directing Categories

As another television season nears kick-off, it is time to say farewell to the 2013-2014 TV season in the most honorable way possible...and no, I'm not talking about the Emmys. The Evannies (awards handed out by yours truly) are my way of recognizing what I loved on TV this year. I hope to honor the best writers, directors, actors, actresses, producers, etc., and while these are all based on personal opinion, I do hope to provide some insight on what I found truly extraordinary on television this year. It's been said for a while now that we're living in the Golden Age of television, and I full-heartedly believe that. Picking nominees for these awards was hard, and picking winners was an even harder task, but I'm now ready to reveal my winners for the 2014 TV Evannies. Today, I'll be revealing winners in the writing and directing categories. Read on!

Best Writing for a Drama Series
WINNER: Hitting the Fan for "The Good Wife" (written by Robert and Michelle King)
2nd Place: The Crocodile's Dilemma for "Fargo" (written by Noah Hawley)
3rd Place: The Last Call for "The Good Wife" (written by Robert and Michelle King)
The Decision Tree for "The Good Wife" (written by Robert and Michelle King)
A Weird Year for "The Good Wife" (written by Robert and Michelle King)
Form and Void for "True Detective" (written by Nic Pizzolato)

Much has been said about the fifth season of "The Good Wife" and the season's fifth episode, "Hitting the Fan," and I could add to the chorus of critics and fans who called it not only the highlight of the season, but the series as a whole. Undoubtedly, it was the episode that defined the next chapter in Alicia's journey, yet it was the contributions by those she is surrounded by including her new partner Cary, her husband Peter, her boss/ex-flame Will, her mentor Diane, her co-workers Kalinda and Robyn, and her children Zach and Grace, that made the episode work. Starting the episode at 100 mph and maintaining that urgency for forty-four minutes was a heavy task, but with storytelling bouncing faster than a jackrabbit, characters zipped in and out of the screen, yet every detail tactfully placed at the right moment. Big moments like Will's swipe of Alicia's desk were also met with smaller, and lighter, moments like Will reprehending Alicia, and then informing her of Grace's call to get a signature for a school field trip. Robert and Michelle King topped themselves with an outstanding episode that defined not only "The Good Wife," but dramatic television this season as a whole. That should not discredit the other nominees. "The Crocodile's Dilemma" takes bold leaps for the pilot of a ten-episode season, with brave twists and intriguing, edge-of-your seat action that leaves viewers clueless as to what will happen next after only the first episode of the season. Dangerous? Yes. But rewarding? Oh, absolutely. Next, if "Hitting the Fan" is too fast-moving for you, "The Last Call" is a subdued, slow-burning companion piece that wraps around the second major event of the show's fifth season. Dealing with death on television is a land mine for emotion, yet the show made the delicate decision to show different ways of dealing with grief and misery to effective results. Additionally, scenes like Alicia's confrontation with her daughter about the existence of God are the kind of boundary-pushing writing that a network series usually shies away from. You don't need nudity or the F-word to stand out, just truthful, honest writing. Two other "TGW" episodes, "The Decision Tree" and "A Weird Year" round out four nominations in this category for "The Good Wife," which essentially proves its status as the best-written show on television, period. Finally, "Form and Void," the finale of "True Detective" season one, brought a satisfying conclusion to the season and the characters we'd seen develop over eight episodes, but posed intriguing questions about the world and our existence that, if studied carefully, go further than what any philosophy textbook might teach. That's the kind of writing that shows TV is breaking down important barriers in our culture.

Best Directing for a Comedy Series
WINNER: Iron City for "Shameless" (directed by James Ponsoldt)
2nd Place: Las Vegas for "Modern Family" (directed by Gail Mancuso)
3rd Place: Basic Intergluteal Numismatics for "Community" (directed by Tristram Shapeero)
Beach House for "Girls" (directed by Jesse Peretz)
Flo for "Girls" (directed by Richard Shepard)
Crate for "Veep" (directed by Chris Addison)

Being defined as a "comedy series" does not mean what it meant ten to fifteen years ago. That's why, when "Shameless" made the move to comedy categories at this year's Emmys, there was understanding about it being considered a comedy series. However, this past season of "Shameless" went dark, much darker than previous seasons. After bingeing the first three seasons earlier in the summer, I caught up on the most recent season of "Shameless" and finished in about three weeks, thanks to compelling storylines that took the show to new heights, but also thanks to my adoration for the Gallagher family and their friends. The best combination of both of those qualities can be found in "Iron City," an episode that finds family faux-matriach Fiona in prison for a mishap with major consequences, while her sinking family does their best to keep their head above the water. Director James Ponsoldt (director of the wonderful 2013 film, The Spectacular Now) had a major challenge in bringing the brutal honesty of a fish-out-of-water story to life with having Fiona incarcerated. He succeeds with brutal honesty and a raw vision. The episode's standout scene in which Fiona is strip-searched is devastating, and Ponsoldt's lingering shots on Fiona's face make viewers' hearts break. Ponsoldt also expertly crafts the stories of Fiona's siblings, all affected by her jailing, and carries the dark overtones of her story to theirs. It's a steep challenge to go this dark for a comedy series, but with a director like Ponsoldt, who expertly visualizes these honest stories, the result is outstanding. On the opposite side of the spectrum, traditional comedy "Modern Family" had a standout season, with great episodes including runner-up, "Las Vegas." The direction is the true star of this episode as Gail Mancuso choreographs a circus with interweaving stories and sight gags that need to be hit on the right beat to make an impact. Just watching the episode is exhausting watching the action move at breakneck speed. "Community" had a good season with a couple of standout episodes including the brilliant "Basic Intergluteal Numismatics," a direct parody of modern dark crime thrillers, specifically the works of David Fincher and the bleakness of the "Dark Knight" trilogy. By expertly nailing the cliche shots, tone, color palette, and mood of these films, the parody can be taken completely seriously, leading to some serious laughs. Without a director who can expertly re-craft these movies, the episode would've been a bust. Now, it's the highlight of the fifth season of "Community." The other nominees include two standout episodes of "Girls," "Beach House" and "Flo." The strength of "Beach House" is certainly its script, but the direction is extremely important as the episode takes place in an unfamiliar setting for the show. The delicate balance of the girls' point of view is especially important during the episode's climax, a major kitchen fight. "Flo" also features a new location for the show, but tackles a dark subject with light and honesty. Finally, "Crate" features some of the biggest moments on "Veep" yet, and the direction lands these moments perfectly, including the hysterical bathroom scene with Selina and Gary that, although planned out ahead of time, feels entirely improvisational and spur-of-the-moment, giving an authentic feel that the show sometimes needs to level out the outrageous antics of Selina and the crew.

Best Directing for a Drama Series
WINNER: Who Goes There for "True Detective" (directed by Cary Fukunaga)
2nd Place: The Crocodile's Dilemma for "Fargo" (directed by Adam Bernstein)
3rd Place: Chapter 14 for "House of Cards" (directed by Carl Franklin)
Anslo Garrick for "The Blacklist" (directed by Joe Carnahan)
The Children for "Game of Thrones" (directed by Alex Graves)
Hitting the Fan for "The Good Wife" (directed by James Whitmore, Jr.)

Now, more than ever, drama series are just as cinematic as the films winning at the Academy Awards, and the show (and episodes I have selected here) are proof that they could easily contend at the same ceremony as the big-screen films. The most impressive episode, from a director's point of view, is "Who Goes There" from "True Detective." This is an episode that starts pretty strong with some great sequences, but the highlight has got to be the last ten minutes of the episode. It's a great episode that just gets elevated by a final sequence that sees Matthew McConaughey's character running through a ghetto shoot-out, all in one continuous tracking shot. "Who Goes There" is defined by this final scene, the standout moment of the season. The choreography of the chaos flows beautifully with the camera, and yet, it never feels like the characters are actors going through the motions. The camerawork is intense and tight, keeping the audience on the edge of their seat, letting them in on secrets around the corner, but still surprising them with twists and turns. It feels like a personal experience, like you are lurking behind the shoulder of a man escaping a dangerous fate, and it's thrilling and impressive all at the same time. Fukunaga's direction throughout the entire season of "True Detective" (he directed every episode) was impressive, but it's undeniable his best work is in this episode. Likewise, Bernstein was responsible for a handful of "Fargo" episodes this year, yet the show's tone is set from the first episode under his tutelage. The script throws twists like rapid-fire, yet the direction keeps the audience guessing where the episode is going. At times light, and at others quite scary, "The Crocodile's Dilemma" stands out because of the heightened sense of importance that the direction informs. Finally, of all of these shows, "Chapter 14" feels most like a big-screen film. That might have to do with the inspiration from pilot episode director David Fincher (who is also an executive producer on the show), but it carries over to the season premiere where director Franklin makes a number of wise choices that keep the show's dark tone running from the end of season one to the beginning of season two. It's just a great effort, and with a script that not only keeps up the pace, but runs faster than season one, Franklin's direction is commendable. The other nominees are just as impressive; "Anslo Garrick" feels like a big-screen action film that shows like "Marvel's Agents of SHIELD" can't compare to at all. "The Children" delicately balances multiple storylines, but underlies them all with an urgency of uprising. "Hitting the Fan" hits the ground running at 100 mph and doesn't stop, and Whitmore's direction keeps the episode moving along without ever losing the audience.

Best Writing for a Comedy Series
WINNER: Beach House for "Girls" (written by Jenni Konner, Lena Dunham, and Judd Apatow)
2nd Place: The Quarterback for "Glee" (written by Ryan Murphy, Brad Falchuk, and Ian Brennan)
3rd Place: Crate for "Veep" (written by Armando Iannucci, Simon Blackwell, and Georgia Pritchett)
Cooperative Polygraphy for "Community" (written by Alex Rubens)
How Your Mother Met Me for "How I Met Your Mother" (written by Carter Bays and Craig Thomas)
You've Got Sext for "The Mindy Project" (written by Mindy Kaling)
Moving Up for "Parks and Recreation" (written by Aisha Muhararr and Alan Yang)
Debate for "Veep" (written by Armando Iannucci, David Quantick, and Tony Roche)

As evidenced by the eight nominees in this category, it was no easy task narrowing down the field of outstanding comedy episodes from a writing standpoint. However, these eight episodes stand out as the best of the year. Starting with the non-ranking nominees, "Cooperative Polygraphy" is the rare comedy piece of writing that leaves the viewer critically thinking rather than laughing, but it's delightful to see that a show, in its fifth season, can still have an episode with concentration around the basis of the relationships between its main characters without feeling overdone. "How Your Mother Met Me" was the defining episode of the final season of "HIMYM," yet not its finale (that is entirely different story). After eight seasons of stories about the elusive mother, this important episode finally put the pieces of the puzzle together that viewers have been piecing together since 2005 and it did not disappoint. "You've Got Sext" is the easy standout of the much-improved "The Mindy Project," my pick for most improved show of the season. Kaling's witty writing blends in perfectly with the romantic comedy tropes she teases at and easily combines real-world humor with the unlikely happy ending. "Moving Up" takes many risks that shake up "Parks and Recreation" leading into the final season, not limited to the episode-ending three year time jump. However, the real highlight of "Parks and Recreation" is delivering a classic, just plain well-written episode. With the focus around a unity festival, it matches previous classic "P&R" episodes like "Harvest Festival" and "Lil Sebastian" with its focus on a single event that pulls the whole department together. The highlight, easily, is the meta reference to Tupac's hologram performance at Coachella with a similar hologram of Lil Sebastian, a true laugh out loud moment. Finally, "Debate" is a "Veep" episode that veers eerily close to real life, but by adding in a few key elements, has the unique "Veep" feel. However, that is not the best episode of the season. That honor belongs to "Crate," an episode that fundamentally shakes "Veep" to its core while still maintaining the crude humor that makes "Veep" the meanest and funniest show on TV. The outrageous humor is matched with heartwarming moments of victory, and after three years of getting to know these characters, "Crate" feels like the big reward. The episode highlight, involving Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Tony Hale, and a bloody nose, goes down as one of the best scenes of this television season. By contrast, the runner-up in this race is not even close to funny, yet its definition in this race is here because of the classification as a comedy series. Yet the "Glee" episode "The Quarterback," a tribute to the series' late star Cory Monteith, is an absolutely important episode from the past season that demands recognition. While delicately balancing being too preachy, too sad, and too overwrought, the script manages some light moments and highlights the many different fashions of struggling with loss. The episode gives each character their time to process the death of their friend, with audiences easily relating as fans of the show and of Monteith. On a somewhat lighter note, though, the best written comedy episode of the year (another episode that doesn't exactly border on comedic) is "Beach House" from "Girls." "Girls" is the episode viewers didn't know they were waiting for after three seasons. A weekend getaway finds the four main characters finally confronting their problems with each other, the best part about this episode is the brutally honest language Konner, Dunham, and Apatow use that not only has an effect on the audience watching the foundation of their four friends' relationship crumbling, but causes many, like myself, to think "This could happen to me." A full-fledged fight that airs honest feelings makes for hard-to-watch television, but leaves audiences reflecting on their own unstable friendships, and I think the best kind of writing can make a person reflect on their own life. The charm of "Girls" runs throughout the script, but the episode's dark conclusion runs the spectrum of what makes "Girls" one of the most realistic shows on television.

2014 Emmys Final Predictions

With Emmy night a few hours away, it's time for the prognosticating and analyzing to come to a halt and let the TV Academy let us in on their little secrets. Although I did not get to analyze every race on the blog, I did watch a majority of the tapes this year, so I hope to have the best possible vision of every race, even if I didn't explicitly talk about it here on the blog. So, without any further ado, here are my final predictions for the 2014 Emmys.

Best Drama Series

WINNER: Breaking Bad
SECOND CHOICE: True Detective
Unlike some predictors, I am not predicting a full sweep for "Breaking Bad" in its final season. Remember, a show like "The Sopranos" -- often referred to as one of, if not the, best television shows ever -- only won writing and directing categories in its final year, in addition to a Best Drama Series victory. Still, "Breaking Bad" is a similar beast, and I'm predicting it'll have a trophy to match the one from last year. My second pick is "True Detective," which looked like a frontrunner for a long time, but I think "Breaking Bad" has more going in its favor. "True Detective" is, somehow, darker and grittier than "Breaking Bad," and while voters obviously loved the lead performances from Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson, as well as the writing and directing, I just think they'll give it to  "Breaking Bad." If "True Detective" does win, however, it would be kind of surprising, but ultimately understandable.

Best Comedy Series

WINNER: Orange Is the New Black
SECOND CHOICE: Modern Family
I've been sticking with this prediction since nomination day in July and I'm keeping to it now: "Orange Is the New Black" will win Best Comedy Series and prevent "Modern Family" from winning a record-tying fifth award (at least for now). The love for "OITNB" was apparent in fans and critics, but was matched by the Academy, who gave the show the most nominations for a comedy series. It hit the mark in all the right categories, including five acting nominations, and a writing and directing nod. It has already won an Emmy for guest actress Uzo Aduba, Netflix's first acting win, and could make its way to being Netflix's first series win, the first time an Internet streaming service has won the award. That's certainly appealing to voters in terms of making history, and while "Modern Family" could also do that, they've got an uphill battle. Still, we cannot discredit "Modern Family," a show that was running stale but had a very good season. Voters clearly love the show, and a win for this season would be justifiable (as for seasons three and four, that's a debate for another time). Still, "Orange Is the New Black" would be a new kind of winner for this category since no hour-long series has won since "Ally McBeal" in 1999. Additionally, the dark material on the show is incomparable to wacky sitcoms that have won in the past like "30 Rock," "Arrested Development," and "The Office." It just seems like it is time for a new winner in this category as "Modern Family" does not have the buzz it had in earlier seasons, and while it had a comeback season, I think the buzz and support for "OITNB" will carry it to a win.

Best Actor in a Drama Series

WINNER: Bryan Cranston for Breaking Bad
SECOND CHOICE: Matthew McConaughey for True Detective
It's been Cranston vs. McConaughey since before Emmy nominations were even announced. When it was revealed "True Detective" would compete in the drama categories instead of miniseries categories, the discussion switched from "McConaughey will handily walk away with an Emmy" to "They have to pick between Cranston and McConaughey?!" Yes, it'll be that hard of a choice for some voters. Cranston is loved in this category, winning in the show's first three seasons. He's gone off the radar after the show skipped a year at the Emmys, then losses to Damian Lewis of "Homeland" and Jeff Daniels from "The Newsroom." A victory here, his first in four years, would be a perfect send-off, and don't think voters aren't thinking strategically like that. "Breaking Bad" really gained praise during its final seasons, yet Cranston is winless for them. They'll want to make sure that doesn't happen in the final season. However, the race is not Cranston's entirely for the taking. McConaughey has won praise for his role on "True Detective," but the real variable here is that, well, he's Matthew McConaughey. He's an Oscar winner and well-respected in the acting community, and to add an Emmy on top of that would be huge. Compared to Cranston, he's got a bit more of a subtle role, not outrageously over-the-top. If voters want to reward "True Detective," this is one of the best categories to do it in. However, I still think Cranston takes it.

Best Actress in a Drama Series

WINNER: Claire Danes for Homeland
SECOND CHOICE: Julianna Margulies for The Good Wife
A tough battle here among many deserving ladies, this category has switched frontrunners over the course of the Emmy prognosticating season. Before nominations came out, the two big ladies in the race were Robin Wright and Tatiana Maslany. Maslany, however, would be snubbed again, and Wright, who had a great submission, ended up giving voters an episode where she gets some substance, but not enough to justify her strong season-long performance. That kind of flipped the race on its head and led us back to two previous winners who many thought were past the podium. Danes' show, as it has been noted again and again, lost critical favor this year, and it is apparent given the show's two major nominations as opposed to eight last year. Ouch. Still, anyone will tell you that Danes is still the best part of the show, and her submission tape shows that she's still one of the best actresses on television. It's showy, yet a bit of a different performance from her, as opposed to her manic season one episode and her subdued season two submission. This one is flashy, but not too showy. It's the right blend, and she's great enough to convince voters that while her show may not be deserving of their love, she still is. Her biggest competitor will be Margulies. The fact that she's in the conversation for the win is impressive. She was inexplicably snubbed last year, but made it back into the race this year after a well-received season of "The Good Wife," although the show itself did not make it back into Best Drama Series. Still, that could work in Margulies' favor. The outrage after the show did not get a Drama Series nomination was deafening, so support rallied around Margulies (and her nominated co-stars who we'll get to in a little bit) for a win. She's got a showy tape that shows her mourning the loss of a loved one, and she gets some really powerful scenes both acting-wise and what is written on the page. It also helps that "The Good Wife" has won an Emmy for one of its actresses every season it has been on the air. Still, the race is really a toss-up since voters could still give the award to Wright, despite the okay tape, and there are very strong competitors in Lizzy Caplan, bright new star of a hot new show, and Kerry Washington, one of television's most popular actresses on the showiest show on television. Heck, even Michelle Dockery has great moments in her tape (although she stole Maslany's nomination, so I still can't forgive her). Really, anyone could win here, but I'll keep my odds on Danes for a three-peat.

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

WINNER: Jim Parsons for The Big Bang Theory
SECOND CHOICE: Ricky Gervais for Derek
I discussed this category at length in my analysis, so I'll keep it brief. Gervais has the best tape, and he's gained some buzz within the Emmy prognosticating community as a result (whether or not that has any effect on Emmy voting cannot be proven, of course). Still, Parsons is the defending champ on television's biggest show, and while his episode isn't as great as what he's won with in the past, you cannot count him out for a second. It's going to be a matter of if voters reward the best performance, despite the fact that it's from a show no one has heard of, or if they'll give it to a safe choice, the crowd-pleasing performance that's good, but not great. I still think they'll go with Parsons. Remember, Gervais was a surprise winner here before, but the show he won with that time, "Extras," was more well-known and also garnered nominations for writing and directing, so people knew it existed. "Derek" is just so unknown that I don't know if it can pull off the Emmy win. So I'll stick with Parsons, but I'll be pleased if Gervais takes it. This category could also have a completely out-of-nowhere winner because of how weak the field is. Just as long as it's not Don Cheadle...

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

WINNER: Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Veep
SECOND CHOICE: Taylor Schilling for Orange Is the New Black
One of the easier races to predict. Louis-Dreyfus was always going to be a frontrunner in this race, and she solidifies it with a standout season of "Veep" and a wonderful submission tape. She's easily miles ahead of the other nominees, but there's always a chance for an upset. No category is 100% locked. As a result, let's examine who could steal that spot. I didn't get to write extensively about this category, but Melissa McCarthy's tape is actually really great. She isn't outrageously funny or just playing cute. McCarthy has some emotional heft to her episode along with a few laughs, and it really shows her off as an actress in an impressive way we really haven't seen yet. Amy Poehler won the Golden Globe so she has some momentum, but her submission tape is only okay and I think her time may have passed (Emmys, you only have next year to make this happen!). Dunham and Falco probably won't win. But the contender to keep an eye on is Schilling, who is the lead of the "OTINB" gang, and if Emmy voters take very kindly to the show, she could surprise everyone with a victory. Her tape is her most comedic episode, and although it's not as funny as Louis-Dreyfus' tape, it's got many layers that could be appealing to voters. If anyone's upsetting the fictional Vice President, it's Piper Chapman.

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

WINNER: Josh Charles for The Good Wife
SECOND CHOICE: Peter Dinklage for Game of Thrones
Definitely one of the hardest categories to predict as I detailed in my final "Emmy Race Analysis," this is really coming down to three major contenders and one dark horse. The point of it is that each performance is profusely different -- Charles is dominant and commandeering, and he stands out in a very busy episode that gives him a lot of great moments; Dinklage has limited screentime, but blows the previous fifty minutes of his episode out of the water with a terrifying and long-in-the-works speech; Paul blows up and uses his physical acting skills to portray his anger boiling over. As I've said, it is really going to be dependent on what voters like best, and with these three performances competing for the top slot, it won't be a clear-cut answer. That's why I'll stick with my previous prediction of Charles, which I gave an explanation for below, if you want to check it out. In my opinion, I think Dinklage has the next best chance, but they really all have the same odds at this point.

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

WINNER: Anna Gunn for Breaking Bad
SECOND CHOICE: Christine Baranski for The Good Wife
Another category that seems to have a clear-cut frontrunner. Gunn won her first Emmy last year, and her odds look just as good this year. She's got "Breaking Bad" momentum on her side, in addition to an absolutely killer tape. It's a brave, shocking, and heartbreaking performance, and she should easily take away her second Emmy. The other contenders have a bit of a shot. Lena Headey, Christina Hendricks and Maggie Smith have an outside shot at the win, but they don't have a combo of buzz + great tape. Joanne Froggatt could potentially spoil with a shocking tape, but she doesn't really have any buzz on her side. If anyone's going to trump Gunn, it's Baranski, an Emmy favorite with her fifth nomination for "The Good Wife" with no wins. As explained above, her victory could make up for "TGW" snubs elsewhere this year, and although she's good in her tape, it's brief and not as memorable as Gunn. That's why I think Gunn will take the award this year.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

WINNER: Tony Hale for Veep
SECOND CHOICE: Jesse Tyler Ferguson for Modern Family
After Hale surprised last year, it's apparent that this category can definitely hold some surprises. That's why we shouldn't count out anybody. Fred Armisen is a real wild card because we don't know how the Academy will react to a variety performance in this race, but given the unsuccessful history of his "SNL" co-stars, we can guess and say he won't win. Also, his tape is not good. Adam Driver is a rising star in Hollywood, and he's excellent on "Girls," but his tape does not show it off well. He only gets one really good scene, and he's not that funny in the episode. Andre Braugher is an Emmy favorite who could definitely win with a better tape, but he doesn't have a very good episode. That'll hurt his chances, and the fact that the Emmys didn't respond to the show as expected means they won't feel compelled to give this trophy to him. Ty Burrell has a very good episode that gives him range, physical comedy, and cross-dressing. It could be just enough to secure Burrell's second Emmy. He, however, doesn't have the buzz of his "Modern Family" co-star, Ferguson, who came off his strongest season ever with a big tape that has dramatic impact and range. For the winless Ferguson, it'll probably be now or never for the Emmy win. However, I'm going with defending champion Hale. With no clear frontrunner in the race, voters may fall back on their previous victor whose tape is very good and has the most memorable and funniest moment of the entire category. Ferguson can upset, but I'm choosing Hale.

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

WINNER: Allison Janney for Mom
SECOND CHOICE: Kate Mulgrew for Orange Is the New Black
This is a much closer race than you'd be led to believe. I'm confident Janney or Mulgrew will win the race. Mayim Bialik, Julie Bowen, Anna Chlumsky, and Kate McKinnon don't have anywhere close to the same amount of buzz or comparable outstanding episodes to compete with the older actresses of this category. Mulgrew's tape is a little more dramatic, but with big range and memorable moments. Janney is balls-to-the-wall in her tape, with laugh-out-loud moments, and she dominates the episode. Again, it's a matter of what Emmy voters want. I think they'll go in the direction of Janney, but "OITNB" momentum can carry Mulgrew. Plus, Janney already has one Emmy win this year, so it's not like she'd be robbed.

Best Writing for a Drama Series

WINNER: "Ozymandias" for Breaking Bad
SECOND CHOICE: "Felina" for Breaking Bad
The three non-"Breaking Bad" nominees are great episodes, don't get me wrong. "The Children" is the most effective episode of "Game of Thrones" to move from storyline to storyline and satisfying all the different stories being told. "Chapter 14" is my favorite episode of "House of Cards," with shocking storytelling and a seamless transition from seasons one to two. And "The Secret Fate of All Life" is a standout episode of "True Detective," most impressive for blending three timelines in one episode. However, I think this race will be between the two "Breaking Bad" episodes. "Felina" is the series finale, and that could win for obvious reasons, tying together all the loose ends into a completely satisfying end, while also giving fans an outstanding episode of television. But anyone who has seen "Ozymandias" will tell you it's the superior episode. Known as the episode where everything finally comes apart, "Ozymandias" is what viewers have been waiting for since the show's beginning. Tense, terrifying, emotionally-draining, daunting, heartbreaking...these are just a few of the words to define the season's third-to-last episode, and the one that will hopefully walk away with the Emmy come Sunday night.

Best Directing for a Drama Series

WINNER: "Who Goes There" for True Detective
SECOND CHOICE: "Felina" for Breaking Bad
"Breaking Bad" could win here, too. "Felina" is a very well-directed episode, but there are also other achievements in this category that are equally impressive. "The Watchers on the Wall" from "Game of Thrones" is the most cinematic episode in the show's history, revolving around a single battle like it had a $100 million budget for a big-screen release. It's a true directorial effort that should be rewarded. "Chapter 14" is beautifully directed, nearly matching the efforts of last year's directing nominee (and eventual winner) David Fincher for "House of Cards." But "Felina" has the buzz, and it's got great direction from the show's creator, a last-ditch effort to give him a solo award. However, the most impressive directing feat of this category is Cary Joji Fukunaga's "Who Goes There" for "True Detective," also known as the episode with the ten-minute tracking shot through a ghetto shootout. It's nearly jaw-dropping how flawlessly it comes together and leaves you in awe of Fukunaga's efforts. This is the easiest place to reward "True Detective," and since the entire first season was directed by Fukunaga, it'd be a reward for his efforts over the entire season, which I don't think voters can resist. This should be a major win for "True Detective."

Best Writing for a Comedy Series

WINNER: "I Wasn't Ready" for Orange Is the New Black
SECOND CHOICE: "So Did the Fat Lady" for Louie
In my original analysis, I picked "So Did the Fat Lady," creating the show's pattern of winning this category every other year. I then decided to switch my pick to "I Wasn't Ready" from "OITNB." Why? As I said in my analysis, "I Wasn't Ready" is a great introduction to the series, but it doesn't feel like outright exposition. We're meeting characters on the fly, but we aren't learning every shade of their personality right away, and while it is focused mainly on a single character and her surroundings, it does it without losing a bit of momentum. "So Did the Fat Lady" has a lot of important social commentary, which would be a great recognition of the episode's topic of weight in the dating world. However, those kinds of episodes aren't really rewarded here. Lately, the Emmys have been favoring episodes that balance the funny and the heartwarming, a true sitcom blend. None of this year's nominees really have that, but "OITNB" comes closest, I say, and that's why I'm changing my prediction.

Best Directing for a Comedy Series

WINNER: "Las Vegas" for Modern Family
SECOND CHOICE: "Lesbian Request Denied" for Orange Is the New Black
A lot of people think "Lesbian Request Denied" for "OITNB" can win because of the big-name director behind the episode, Jodie Foster. Yes, it's true that well-known directors have Emmy success including last year's victory for Best Directing for a Drama Series by David Fincher and previous winners like Martin Scorsese and JJ Abrams. However, there have been plenty of recognizable directors to lose the Emmy including Steven Spielberg, Quentin Tarantino, Paul Feig and Beth McCarthy-Miller. Clearly, being well-known doesn't improve your chances. That's why I'm not confident that Foster will claim this award, especially considering the directing itself is good, but not outstanding. History, however, does come into play in this category when considering the death grip "Modern Family" has had on this category during its run. It won every season except the first season, and last year's winner, Gail Mancuso, directed their nominee this year, "Las Vegas." It's a technically exceptional episode, balancing intertwining storylines with sight gags and physical comedy. It takes a lot of choreographing to pull off an episode like "Las Vegas" and I think Mancuso can be rewarded for that. At least it's better than the episode she won this category with last year. I'm not sure who else stands as a threat in this category, but that could also mean a surprise winner is brewing. We'll just have to wait until tonight to find out...

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

One of the tightest race's of next Monday's Emmy ceremony will be Supporting Actor in a Drama Series, with three major contenders for the title and dark horse nominees that could pull off a major upset victory. Read on to see who has the best shot of walking away with the gold...

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jim Carter - Downton Abbey (episode: "Episode 3.1")
Josh Charles - The Good Wife (episode: "Hitting the Fan")
Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones (episode: "The Laws of God and Men")
Mandy Patinkin - Homeland (episode: "Geronition")
Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad (episode: "Confessions")
Jon Voight - Ray Donovan (episode: "Fite Nite")

Carter is back for a third time in this category with a tape twice as long as his competitors. However, for a show like "Downton Abbey," that is never an automatic benefit. Because of the show's large ensemble, some characters disappear for long periods of time. That doesn't really happen to Carter in this tape, but there are many instances where his appearances are short and without substance. He interacts with many different characters, but there are very few "big" scenes for the character. He is a part of multiple story arcs, some easier to understand than others, but he doesn't make a big splash, and while he's just fine in this episode, I don't think it's strong enough considering the killer competition. Charles made a resurgence in the category this year, returning for a nomination after his only previous notice here in 2011. Three years later, his return coincides with a great year for his show, "The Good Wife." Of course, Charles has a lot to do with the show's big year. (SPOILERS) Although he was garnering great reviews for the season's major story arc of Julianna Margulies' Alicia leaving Charles' Will's law firm to start her own, buzz for Charles increased when his character was shot and killed halfway through the season. The sudden passing of (arguably) the show's second lead was a huge water cooler moment for the show, which already was having a huge season, and the perfect storm culminated for Charles' nomination here. However, rather than picking the episode where he is killed, Charles thankfully submitted his best episode of the season, the much-heralded "Hitting the Fan." An episode moving 100 mph, "Hitting the Fan" is a great highlight reel for Charles as he gets a number of great moments. He begins the episode confronting Alicia by yelling at her, clearing her desk with his bare hands, and then firing her. The momentum doesn't stop, and the episode, although allowing the entire ensemble to shine, is centered around the storm Charles brews up. Heck, he even gets a few moments of comic relief. This episode shows Charles' Will coming to life, finally, and breaking out of a shell we never knew existed. He has screentime, impact, and even a little bit of empathy if audiences can understand his motivations for being betrayed professionally by a woman he worked with, but also was in love with. This is Charles' last time to win for "The Good Wife," and combined with a great performance and big buzz, this could be his year. He's got a big competitor in Dinklage, a previous winner whose victory came during Charles' last nomination. They meet again, and this time, Dinklage has a big tape to match Charles'. Dinklage's character Tyrion spent much of the fourth season of "Game of Thrones" locked up in prison, but this episode is easily his highlight of the season. After being put on trial for murder, Dinklage basically dissolves in front of the audience as he is set up in the courtroom through faulty testimony from unreliable witnesses, capped off by a string of lies by his former lover. He looks so low and defeated, realizing he cannot win the trial, and in a last minute reversal, he turns his depression into anger as he launches into a tirade against not only his father, but all of the townspeople that have gathered for his trial, finally releasing four seasons' worth of anger about being discriminated against and mistreated by his family, and being blamed for his mother's death. He falsely confesses to murder to appease his father and tells the crowd he would murder again and again. It's a fiery speech and Dinklage sells it completely. He is terrifying, yet the audience feels some kind of pride for him as he finally confronts the problems that have haunted him during the show's run. This is one big moment that comes at the end of the episode, so he has impact for sure. The question, of course, will be if voters think the one moment is big enough (and good enough) to warrant a second Emmy.

Patinkin (along with co-star Claire Danes) was able to survive the Emmys' general lack of acknowledgement of the third season of "Homeland," and that's good considering Patinkin continued being a highlight of the show. His submission episode shows why Saul is such an intriguing character as he interrogates a high-ranking Iranian official and converts him to be a spy for America, all while balancing his relationship with his faltering wife and tip-toeing around his disapproving superiors. He has a few great moments and it's overall a very strong episode for Patinkin. He has very strong competition, and since general regard for "Homeland" has decreased, it will be an uphill battle to win, but he's more than deserving with this episode. Through all of the story details, it is obvious that this is really just the story of a man whose career is taking over his life, and the struggles he'll go through to make sure that a job doesn't sink his entire life. Although most people can't relate to a CIA job, many can definitely relate to work-related stress bleeding into real life, so Patinkin can earn some empathy votes there. He is definitely a dark horse in this race. Paul, a winner here in 2010 and 2012 can win his final Emmy for "Breaking Bad" with an episode that, as seems to be a common factor in this year's competitors, finds him finally cracking. Paul doesn't get a lot to play with in the beginning of the episode, but the episode's final moments are when we see him become completely unhinged, collapsing as the workings of his boss finally crash in on him and cause him to snap. He goes completely insane, ending the episode crashing into his partner's front yard and pouring a gasoline tank inside the house. Those final episodes make this episode stand out for Paul, since he didn't get many other options during the show's final season. It's a good performance in the beginning, but he doesn't have that much impact. The impact comes in the show's final moments when he physically attacks his lawyer and goes on an angry rage preparing to set his boss' house on fire. Teeth gritted, tears in his eyes...this is a man on a mission, and as an audience member, we're worried what his next move will be. Could Paul win a third Emmy with this tape? It's truly possible. We also cannot forget that he's liked by the Emmys and his show is competing for the last time, so voters might give it to him for the sake of never being able to reward him again. Finally, Voight shows up in the race, trying to prove that he wasn't just a simple name-check. This episode gives some proof that that might not be the case. He gets a storyline that has him taken hostage, but the big moments come when he returns back to his family and friends, but he doesn't get any big scenes that have a lot of impact, and while he's still pretty good throughout the episode, he never does anything that I think would have voters in awe. Considering the big competition in this race, it would be a true shock to see Voight as the one walking away with this award. Still, he's a veteran and in a race with multiple frontrunners, it is always possible that an unexpected choice comes through with the victory.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones (episode: "The Laws of God and Men")
2. Josh Charles - The Good Wife (episode: "Hitting the Fan")
3. Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad (episode: "Confessions")
4. Mandy Patinkin - Homeland (episode: "Geronition")
5. Jon Voight - Ray Donovan (episode: "Fite Nite")
6. Jim Carter - Downton Abbey (episode: "Episode 4.1")

There really isn't a bad submission in this bunch. Among all of these performances, Carter and Voight's are the most pedestrian, never giving them big moments or impact that their fellow nominees have in spades. Dinklage is heartbreaking in his submission with a huge moment that leaves major impact. Charles anchors his episode with range, memorable moments, but his impact really comes at the beginning of the episode, which might hurt his chances. His final scene doesn't have the impact that his initial, desk-swiping confrontation does. Paul has a reverse effect, with his impact coming at the end of the episode, but he really just turns angry with physical violence, and it might be a case of too little, too late. That's not to say it's not a winning tape. I think either of those tapes could lead to a winner. I even wouldn't go as far as saying we can count out Patinkin, because he's got a great episode that really gives him a great showcase as a supporting actor on the show. With multiple storylines, relatability, and impact, he needs to be watched out for on Monday.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Jim Carter - Downton Abbey
5. Jon Voight - Ray Donovan
4. Mandy Patinkin - Homeland
3. Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad
2. Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones
1. Josh Charles - The Good Wife

This is, I believe, the hardest category of the night to predict. I'll count out Carter and Voight right away. With competition this strong, you need to be outstanding to win, and they just aren't. Patinkin could probably win in a weaker year, but his competition is just too strong, although he is certainly an outside shot in this race. With the top three, you could honestly put them in any order and it would be justifiable. For now, I have Paul in third because I didn't think his tape was that great and I'm not sure how voters will react to him essentially just going over-the-top and not showing any dynamic or range. He's already won twice, so voters might decide he doesn't need a third trophy. That's really never stopped them before, though. Dinklage could maybe have a tighter grip on the trophy if his tape didn't revolve around a single moment. His absence until the halfway mark of the episode is matched with mainly reaction shots, but his final monologue is powerful and attention-grabbing, a truly great moment of television, so it would be interesting to see if that is the performance that wins. I think some voters will love it and rank it high on their ballot, with others putting it further down because it is only a scene that lasts a few minutes as opposed to an episode-long great performance. For that reason, I'm inclined to predict Charles for the win. This, of course, could all be for selfish reasons. But I think voters will recognize that this is their last opportunity to reward Charles, and for a performance that is dynamic, powerful, and empathetic. It also stands true that a "TGW" actress has won an Emmy every year the show has been on the year, and while, yes, Charles isn't an actress, he can redefine that rule and become the show's first male winner. This prediction can certainly change before showtime, but for now, I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict Charles.

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Actor in a Comedy Series

A race that has received a lot of flak for its lack of excitement and change may end up providing one of the biggest shocking victories of the night. So who might surprise everyone with a trip to the podium? Read on to find out...

Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Louis CK - Louie (episode: "Model")
Don Cheadle - House of Lies (episode: "Wreckage")
Ricky Gervais - Derek (episode: "Episode 2.6")
Matt LeBlanc - Episodes (episode: "Episode 306")
William H. Macy - Shameless (episode: "Lazarus")
Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory (episode: "The Relationship Diremption")

This season of "Louie" got a lot less praise than previous seasons, as far as I could tell, yet among the more popular episodes I had heard about, CK submitted "Model," by far the most awkward submission in this category. The story is basically divided into two halves. In the first half, he bombs opening for Jerry Seinfeld at a charity event. It's just so awkward, and not in a funny way. It's like watching a car accident, but you can look away because it's not that funny. The second half of the episode finds Louie hanging out with the one girl in the audience who actually appreciated his stand-up, but the "poop on Louie" parade marches through this episode as he ends up breaking her nose, ruining her modeling career, and getting sued for $5 million. It's not a feel-good episode, and provides very few laughs. I'd be shocked if this submission won him an Emmy, compared to episodes he has submitted in the past where he is much more charming and happy. Continuing the string of bad episode submissions is Cheadle's tape. I've already expressed my disgust for Cheadle's nomination here, and his episode does him absolutely no favors. He doesn't stand out, have any good money scenes...he basically walks through the motions and doesn't do anything remotely Emmy-worthy. Combined with the show's lack of recognition elsewhere, Cheadle won't touch the Emmy and if he does, the whole Emmy-predicting community (including yours truly) will riot. Gervais was one of the biggest surprises of nomination morning, and given my general distaste toward the actor, I wasn't looking forward to watching his submission for "Derek." Man was I surprised...what a great submission. Is it funny? Kind of. It's got some good jokes for Gervais, even if they are mostly revolved around burping or physical comedy. But the bright spot of this episode is how different it is for Gervais -- everyone knows he is a sarcastic (pardon my language) asshole, and he couldn't be further from it in this episode. The first half of the episode finds him on a date, and he is charming in a dorky way, which definitely creates empathy from the audience, essential to an Emmy race. The latter half of the episode finds him talking to his dying father and confronting his death. It is an emotionally charged moment, and one that really shows the breadth of Gervais' acting as he completely flips the switch on what you think of when you think "Ricky Gervais." With tears in his eyes, recollecting on his time with his father and urging the audience to spend time with loved ones before it is too late, it is a powerful moment that alone could win him the Emmy. He went from being a "WTF" nominee to a major contender.

I've never been a fan of "Episodes," despite the fact that LeBlanc and this series' co-creator David Crane are well-known as one of the stars and co-creater, respectively, of my favorite TV show of all time, "Friends." This episode was probably my favorite performance I've seen from LeBlanc so far. He gets range, he has some funny moments, and the episode is filled with callbacks to "Friends," which may entice Emmy voters. His character is sometimes unlikable, but here it doesn't come across as to narcissistic, and when he is confronted by his girlfriend for cheating at the end of the episode, you do feel bad for him. It's not the best submission in the category, but it's strong, and given that he's on his third nomination for this show, he could surprise with a win. Macy landed his first nomination after "Shameless" moved from drama to comedy categories, yet his tape is definitely dramatic. That's an overwhelming theme of the fourth season of "Shameless." Macy's character is quite despicable, sometimes evil, but this episode isn't too bad for him. Unfortunately, he doesn't have an abundance of screentime here, but he's effective in what he gets. Recovering from a kidney transplant, he avoids responsibility and finds a way out of the hospital, away from his new wife. His major scene comes at episode's end where he screams out to the frozen unknown about surviving after being on the brink of death. It's a nice scene with some impact, but it's not enough to make this an effective tape for an Emmy win. "Shameless" works best as an ensemble piece, and Macy is an integral part (although not its best, that honor goes to the severely underrated Emmy Rossum), but with an unlikable character, little screentime, and no empathy, I don't know if he can summon an Emmy win. Finally, perpetual winner Parsons is back with yet another episode featuring "drunk Sheldon." This episode, however, doesn't touch previous "drunk Sheldon" episodes. In this episode, Parsons' character confronts a life change when he begins questioning his scientific work, leading to some science humor that may or may not catch voters' attention. His drunk antics come largely in the form of drunk voicemails left to his idol, Stephen Hawking, but during that time, he is off-screen and only his voice carries the performance. Still, that's gotta help a little bit because he has to create laughs using only his voice. Unfortunately, this just isn't a great, award-winning performance, but that hasn't necessarily stopped Parsons in the past, so with even a good episode, he's a threat. He'd be a bigger lock with a better episode, but this makes him vulnerable.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Ricky Gervais - Derek (episode: "Episode 2.6")
2. Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory (episode: "The Relationship Diremption")
3. Matt LeBlanc - Episodes (episode: "Episode 306")
4. William H. Macy - Shameless (episode: "Lazarus")
5. Louis CK - Louie (episode: "Model")
6. Don Cheadle - House of Lies (episode: "Wreckage")

Gervais has, far and away, the best tape in this category. He's funny, he's heartbreaking, he has range, impact...it's a great tape. The only thing hurting him is that "Derek" is quite a weird show. The humor is a bit understated, but I don't think it pulls away from Gervais' performance. Parsons is solid as he is in every other "TBBT" episode, but his drunk shenanigans in this episode aren't as outrageous as past episodes, and for a character who has been making personal progress all season, this isn't the best showcase of Parsons' performance. LeBlanc has a good episode, but he'll need to rely on the weaknesses of his competitors to get the Emmy. Still, he's definitely a dark horse. Macy is great on "Shameless," but he doesn't have a tape that gives him range and impact, and that could hurt. CK's episode is painfully awkward and just not funny. I don't think he can win it. And the less we say about Cheadle, the better...okay?

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Don Cheadle - House of Lies
5. Louis CK - Louie
4. William H. Macy - Shameless
3. Matt LeBlanc - Episodes
2. Ricky Gervais - Derek
1. Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory

Cheadle is...just...no. CK has had so many better chances to win this category and this is not one of them (he has much better chances in the Writing and Directing categories). Macy might have had a good shot at winning if his tape was a little better, because he is a respected veteran actor playing an alcoholic (sounds like an Emmy win to me), but his tape isn't great and I don't know if Emmy voters are clamoring to reward him. LeBlanc has a good tape, and he's "overdue" (if you consider him due at all). He's definitely a dark horse for the win. But the race really comes down to two big ponies. Gervais has the best tape that would be a slam-dunk win, but he's on a show nobody has heard of and his performance borders on dramatic at points. Still, Gervais is an Emmy favorite, pulling an upset in this category seven years ago, so he could definitely do it again this year. However, I'm just not sure if Emmy voters will collectively agree that this is the best performance, and so I think they'll end up going with a safe choice in Parsons, who probably isn't the best choice and considering the history he'd make with a win here, it's a big deal. I'm still not sold on my prediction of Parsons because he's vulnerable and Emmy voters may be tired of his performance, in addition to the wonderful Gervais tape. This prediction is not locked in, and check back for my final predictions to see if I end up picking Gervais.

Billboard Hot 100 Update: Week of August 20th

In the run toward the end of the fall, this week's Billboard top ten shows major movement with two new songs entering the top tier and major records being broken.

1. Rude - MAGIC!
2. All About That Bass - Meghan Trainor
3. Stay With Me - Sam Smith
4. Break Free - Ariana Grande feat. Zedd
5. Fancy - Iggy Azalea feat. Charli XCX
6. Am I Wrong - Nico and Vinz
7. Problem - Ariana Grande feat. Iggy Azalea
8. Black Widow - Iggy Azalea feat. Rita Ora
9. Chandelier - Sia
10. Bang Bang - Jessie J, Ariana Grande and Nicki Minaj 

You read that right...that's three top 10's apiece for Iggy and Ariana this week. They join Adele and Ashanti as the only female artists to have three top 10s simultaneously, with Ariana being only in company with Adele for females with lead billing on all three tracks. Male acts who have completed this task: The Beatles (two weeks with 5 songs in the top ten), 50 Cent and T-Pain (both with four top ten songs at once), Akon, The Bee Gees, Chris Brown, Lil Wayne and Usher.

I'd like to point out how remarkable it is that Ariana and Iggy are the ones with three subsequent top tens. It's really hard to pinpoint who this is bigger for, because I wouldn't have expected it for either artist a few months ago. Ariana has definitely shed the Nickelodeon mold and is certifiably one of the world's biggest pop stars. She's listed as leading artist on all three tracks, and some might argue she's featured on "Bang Bang," but all three ladies pull similar weight on that song. Neither song sounds like each other, and with her album due to launch the day after the VMAs where she'll be performing twice, Ariana is going to be untouchable. She's a megastar. That might be hyperbole, but look at that impressive feat.

Similarly, this is just nuts to think that Iggy is a member of this club. We've heard the "white female rapper" argument over and over, and there was praise when she was able to land #s 1 and 2 simultaneously earlier this summer, but now she's got three songs in the top ten, two of which she's lead. For someone who many didn't think would be a star, she's shining a lot brighter than her counterparts, as not only one of the biggest female names in music of the moment, but one of the biggest rappers in the world right now. The list of artists/bands who have had at least three songs in the top ten at once includes a lot of big names and contains a handful of notable rappers who probably jumped this hurdle through tracks of their own and features. Iggy joins that prestigious list and breaks down major barriers.

Overall, it's pretty impressive that Ariana and Iggy were able to secure this record, let alone do it in the same week. This is big for the music world going forward. 

It looks like Sam Smith won't be getting his #1 with "Stay With Me" :( That's okay, the fact that he has any major success at all is a plus for the music world. A #2 peak isn't shabby at all. Adele, who many compare to Sam Smith, didn't capture her first #1, let alone worldwide success on this major a scale, until "Rolling In The Deep," which was the lead single from her second album. Still, Smith is performing at the VMAs, and depending on what he performs, "Stay With Me" could see a slight bump on the charts, or he could catalyze the launch of his next single, "I'm Not the Only One."

This will be the last week for "Rude" on top, as next week will either be "All About That Bass" or "Shake It Off" by Taylor Swift, which Billboard is hyping up for a huge opening week. Its sales are tracking lower than "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together," and nowadays, it is hard to debut at #1. With "Rude" falling and "AATB" skyrocketing, it's at least obvious the latter will trump the former, but where its for the #1 or #2 spot is still questionable. For "All About That Bass," the jump to #2 just adds onto an impressive run for a song that came out of nowhere and is possibly headed toward a #1 debut. We really need to keep an eye on Meghan Trainor's future. She struck the right chord of relatable subject matter + catchy beat + ear worm chorus = major success.

It looks like the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning debut of the music videos for "Break Free" and "Black Widow" did wonders for their chart positions. I've been saying for weeks that these songs would be top ten hits, and their tenures begin now. Which song will be bigger, though? Iggy's "Fancy" beat Ariana's "Problem," but I have a feeling "Break Free" will be more popular than "Black Widow." Don't hold me to that. Personally, I've had "Black Widow" in my mix since April, and "Break Free" joined when it made its July debut. As I stated above, though, I'm just glad to see the success of Ariana and Iggy.

"Am I Wrong" is falling, but it couldn't possibly be going any faster. Don't like that song. "Fancy" and "Problem" will probably drop a little faster due to the success of "Break Free" and "Black Widow," whereas Nico and Vinz have nothing else coming out. "Chandelier" is still holding tight at the bottom frame of the top ten, while "Bang Bang" clings to a pole position. The music video is coming Sunday, but streaming is tracked Monday to Sunday, so the real proof will come in two weeks when the song should burst near the top with the music video/VMA combo. Speaking of VMAs, they'll provide a big boost for some of these songs in two weeks, in addition to some songs outside of the top ten (I would say that includes "Maps," which fell out of this week's top ten, but I think Maroon 5 is performing a new single at the VMAs). Meghan Trainor, however, won't be performing and won't get the subsequent boost, but that song has been untouchable in its meteoric rise to the top, so I wouldn't bet against it to get to #1 as September approaches.

The previously mentioned "Maps" and Charli XCX's "Boom Clap" fall out of the top ten this week. We'll see if they can rejoin the ranks as summer hits like "Fancy," "Problem," and "Am I Wrong" wind down. At the very least, "Boom Clap" could see a boost when the movie it was featured in, "The Fault In Our Stars," is available on DVD in mid-September. That sounds crazy, but if ads capitalize on the song's success and soundtrack sales increase, it could happen. Another song to watch out for in the coming weeks is "Rather Be" by Clean Bandit, which is jumping up the iTunes charts and making an impact on radio. No VMA feature could hurt, but it may make a top ten appearance next week.

What do you think of this week's Billboard top ten? I'll be back tomorrow to update with song movement further down the chart, but in the meantime, give me your thoughts on these ten songs below!

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

In an era of comedy where funny ladies don't have to be front and center to steal attention, the Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series category is stacked with veterans, Emmy favorites, and one interesting newcomer. Let's analyze below...

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory (episode: "The Indecision Amalgation")
Julie Bowen - Modern Family (episode: "The Feud")
Anna Chlumsky - Veep (episode: "Detroit")
Allison Janney - Mom (episode: "Estrogen and a Hearty Breakfast")
Kate McKinnon - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Anna Kendrick")
Kate Mulgrew - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Tit Punch")

Bialik has a knack for submitting episodes where she has one great scene, but does not have an overall great performance throughout the episode. In a season where she had two standout episodes that I can think of off the top of my head (the Christmas and Valentine's Day episodes come to mind), she went for an episode that does have the most memorable scene for her character all season, but has her largely absent or not making an impact to the story. The scene in mind has her feeding into her boyfriend Sheldon's self-obsession in a hilarious manner with a twist ending that delivers huge laughs. Bialik acts it perfectly. However, the rest of the episode doesn't focus on her character and ends with her going with Sheldon to buy a new gaming system, and acting as the voice of reason. She doesn't get a lot of laughs, so she's really riding on one scene to get her this award. Of course, that's not the only factor. Bialik is a three-time nominee in this category, so she might be seen as overdue. Additionally, Bialik is lovable and empathetic, but also sarcastic and funny. That weird combo might work in her favor. One lady who is no stranger to the hardware is Bowen, who has won this award twice for her "Modern Family" role. Unfortunately, Bowen didn't have a standout storyline (or even episode) this season, so she already didn't have great odds going into this race. Her submission, "The Feud," doesn't have her at the forefront. Instead, she gets a story with some physical comedy where she contracts lice from her niece on the day of an important business meeting. The story has some potential, and Bowen definitely does the best with what she's given, but it's not a lot. She isn't the driving force behind the episode, doesn't have range, and it doesn't make an impact. Given that she's already won this award twice, there's no motivation to give it to Bowen for a three-peat. Chlumsky is a two-time nominee for her role on "Veep" as, essentially, the straight woman. That's a hard task in such a wacky ensemble, but this season did give Chlumsky's character, Amy, a chance to shine with her initial loss of the campaign manager position for her boss, Vice President Selina Meyer. She has a great episode where, before she is passed over for the position, she invites the rest of the staff over to gain their support and ultimately fails at being a good host. She also has a drunk scene at the end of the episode when she finds out she has lost the job. It's a slam dunk submission...if Chlumsky were to actually submit it. Instead, we get a background episode where Chlumsky is a supporting player to bigger stories going on around here. She gets a few laughs, but doesn't even really have a story to herself. It's a poor submission for a character that really needs an episode with a central storyline if the actress wants any chance at the Emmy.

Janney, an Emmy winner this weekend for her guest-starring turn on "Masters of Sex" is up for another award at the main ceremony next Monday, and this time for a completely different role. Janney plays the outrageous mother of Anna Faris, and while she seemed to be a scene-stealer in the beginning of the season that popped in and out casually, the show's first season eventually became centered around the odd couple duo of this mom-daughter team. As a result, both actresses received praise and Janney an Emmy nomination (Faris, one could argue, was snubbed). Janney is mostly known for her dramatic work, but in smaller feature films over the years, she has expressed a comedic side that is fully on display on "Mom," and in her submission episode, she gets to go all out. The episode finds her dealing with a comedic trope for "older" actresses: menopause. Of course, Janney gets to be over-the-top, but she's downright hysterical. There are moments when she's front and center, but she also weaves in and out of the episode's other main storyline, which finds her defending the honor of her granddaughter. She gets a lot of laugh out loud moments and is easily the most memorable part of the episode. She doesn't get a lot in terms of range (no quiet, emotional moments), but with a raucous performance like this, it doesn't hurt her chances. Plus, you know, the whole "I'm Allison Janney" thing. McKinnon snagged a surprise nomination here, and it's not hard to see why she's often called the standout of the current "SNL" cast. In her submission episode, she gets a few moments to shine, particularly the cold open and a skit during Weekend Update, where she gets to be over-the-top with a thick accent. She's just funny, and she's reminiscent of another "SNL" Emmy favorite, Kristen Wiig. Of course, we know Wiig never won an Emmy during her "SNL" tenure, and given that McKinnon is just in the beginning of her career on the show, I am inclined to think she won't be able to go where no "SNL" cast member has gone before. Compared to tapes Wiig submitted in years past (including her absolutely dynamite final episode that still didn't win her the hardware), McKinnon's tape is just okay. She isn't consistent in appearances, and her impact isn't too big by episode's end. The most impressive performance comes from host Anna Kendrick. The good thing is that Emmy voters have clung onto McKinnon, so she's likely to have many more chances at a win in the future. The final nominee, Mulgrew, comes from "OITNB," a show that, as has been discussed, is much different from all of the other nominated comedies. This is something that may work in Mulgrew's favor. To boot, she's got an episode that has her front and center including flashbacks, which give some context to her character. Where Janney lacks range, Mulgrew has it in spades. She's funny, cold, threatening, outrageous, over-the-top, reserved...she displays it all. In present day, she's showing new prisoner Piper who is the boss by starving her when she insults the food. She's scary and intimidating, and shows off an impressive stare. By contrast, her flashbacks show her reserved and shy around a group of "cool friends," from whom she aims to earn trust and respect. Here, she gets to be funny, but most importantly, she gets the audience's empathy. That is definitely going to help garner her some votes, and she's a serious threat for the win.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Allison Janney - Mom (episode: "Estrogen and a Hearty Breakfast")
2. Kate Mulgrew - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Tit Punch")
3. Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory (episode: "The Indecision Amalgation")
4. Julie Bowen - Modern Family (episode: "The Feud")
5. Anna Chlumsky - Veep (episode: "Detroit")
6. Kate McKinnon - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Anna Kendrick")

Janney's tape has a purely comedic performance where she gets to steal the show and score major laughs. It's easily the funniest tape of the bunch and it's a comedic performance through and through that begs to be noticed. The episode screams Emmy bait. Mulgrew gets a much more layered episode with a bigger range and more empathy, and it couldn't be a more different episode from Janney. I have Janney ahead, but arguments could be made that would put either lady on top. It's really just whatever voters are in the mood for voting. Bialik gets one really great scene, but not much else. Bowen is good, but nothing standout about her performance at all. The same can be said about Chlumsky to a lesser extent, and McKinnon is fun, but doesn't have enough impact to come close to winning the Emmy.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Kate McKinnon - Saturday Night Live
5. Anna Chlumsky - Veep
4. Julie Bowen - Modern Family
3. Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory
2. Kate Mulgrew - Orange Is the New Black
1. Allison Janney - Mom

McKinnon, Chlumsky, Bowen, and (to a lesser extent) Bialik are out. This is a two-horse race, and the problem lies in that it's two entirely different beasts competing for the title. On one hand, Janney is a comedic powerhouse, making every line hit with but-gusting laughs. She has the most memorable character of the bunch and she has moments throughout the 21-minute episode that let her shine. She's an Emmy darling (of seven previous nominations, she has only lost twice) and in a category that loves over-the-top actresses (think of recent winners from this decade like Megan Mullally, Jaime Pressley, and Jane Lynch), Janney has a great shot. On the other hand, Mulgrew plays a breakout character on a new hit show with an episode that puts her in control. She gets flashbacks that give her range and impact, as well as the all-important empathy from voters. She hops around, and while her performance isn't anywhere as laugh-out-loud funny as Janney's, she gets laughs, and shows off her dramatic skills as well. Two different performances, but only one trophy...it's not hard to see why these actresses tied at the Critics Choice Awards. But since only one can win at the Emmys, I've gotta go with Janney, whose tape is the funniest and whose Emmy history proves they can't get enough of her. If Janney loses to Mulgrew, at least she's already picked up an award this year for Guest Actress in a Drama Series. But if any other actress walks away with this award, we might need to start questioning the picks of the Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series panel (because I'm still flabbergasted by Merritt Wever's win last year).