"State of the Race" (Emmys): May 27th

Welcome back to the next edition of "State of the Race"! In the last post, I covered the series and lead acting races, so now it's time to show some love to the supporting actors and actresses. So let's get started...

Best Drama Supporting Actor

1. Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad

2. Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones

3. Mandy Patinkin - Homeland

4. Dean Norris - Breaking Bad

5. Josh Charles - The Good Wife

6. Jeff Perry - Scandal

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7. Jon Voight - Ray Donovan

8. Jeffrey Wright - Boardwalk Empire

9. Jim Carter - Downton Abbey

10. Charles Dance - Game of Thrones

This is a tough category to predict. After last year's win for Bobby Cannavale on Boardwalk Empire, I've learned my lesson that, truly, anything can happen in the Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series race. That's why I'm predicting we'll get at least one major "WTF" nominee this year considering the number of bonafide contenders. Who should consider themselves safe? Aaron Paul, a three-time nominee and two-time winner, will likely make it in one last time for Breaking Bad, and I slot him in the #1 spot just because this is an easy category for voters to reward the show. It faces stiffer competition in the Drama Series and Drama Actor categories, but here, there are few actors biting at Paul's ankles. Sure, his performance in the last season was great, but I think the earlier seasons for which he was rewarded were better. That might change especially considering my #2 pick has yet to complete his season. Peter Dinklage will get the nomination since I'm expecting Game of Thrones to continue to make a bigger splash at these awards. His storyline is really starting to pick up now, so he might move to the #1 spot soon, but it's too soon to judge. He has an Emmy already for season one, and as the show's most memorable character, I wouldn't be surprised to see him snag another one, potentially even this year. Mandy Patinkin should honestly be in the lead acting category because he really stepped up this year due to the large absence of Damian Lewis for a good chunk of the season. Alas, he is here, and while he does have heft and screentime that can contribute to a win, there's just a lack of love for Homeland in general anymore and that might cost him. Also remember that Patinkin couldn't get a nomination during the show's freshman season, for which it won Best Drama Series. It could've just been a regretful snub, but now that the show is getting less love, let's hope that Patinkin's performance, one of the bright spots of the season, isn't forgotten. It's always crazy to hypothesize two actors or actresses from the same show getting nominated in the same category, but when it's a show like Breaking Bad, it's no big deal. Breaking Bad has had two nominated actors in this category twice (Giancarlo Esposito and Jonathan Banks), and this year, it looks like Dean Norris might fit the bill. He had a breakout season (ironically during the show's final stretch), his character is easily the most likable (sure, you can like Walter White, but Hank is the actual good guy on the show), and another factor that plays into Norris' favor is that his other show, Under the Dome, airs during the summer when Emmy voters are casting their ballots. That kind of presence (and Under the Dome has a big presence as last summer's biggest hit) shouldn't be forgotten or ignored. Josh Charles, nominated for season two of The Good Wife, had an absolutely stellar season. The Emmy buzz for Charles kicked off early in the season, but his place in the race was nearly solidified after That Thing That Happened In The Middle of The Season (again, no spoilers). Charles is just as deserving for love as Margulies and the series itself, and a second nomination would be a fantastic reward. However, returning to the category three years later is a tough task, so there are obstacles to overcome. Beyond those five contenders, it is truly a toss-up for the final slot. Again, this is not the strongest year for this category, so who might slither on in? It could be Charles Dance if Emmy voters wanna drop some more love to their favorite fantasy series, but his character hasn't done as much as last year when he was snubbed in the guest category. Jim Carter surprised everyone with a second nomination last year, but buzz for Downton Abbey is near non-existent, and this category needs a shake-up. Jeffrey Wright has gained some buzz for his performance on Boardwalk Empire, and the show did win for a different actor in this category last year, but if you thought Downton Abbey had little buzz, Boardwalk Empire has even less. Jon Voight won this category at the Golden Globes, although I view that win more as a "biggest name in the category" victory than actual performance. Still, there's a good chance he could get in because of name and the fact that Ray Donovan's second season airs this summer (see my above explanation with Norris and Under the Dome). But I'm not confident in picking Voight yet, so I'm going out on a very long, unstable limb and giving the sixth slot (for now) to Jeff Perry for Scandal. This is an actor's show, and while the performances are over-the-top, they are attention getters. Scandal is huge right now, and after last year's win in the guest category for Dan Bucatinsky, it's now known that voters recognize actors other than Kerry Washington. With no real sixth option, Perry could surprise, especially after a baity season and being a fan favorite.


Best Drama Supporting Actress

1. Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad

2. Christine Baranski - The Good Wife

3. Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey

4. Emilia Clarke - Game of Thrones

5. Christina Hendricks - Mad Men

6. Michelle Monahan - True Detective

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7.  Bellamy Young - Scandal

8. Monica Potter - Parenthood

9. Lena Headey - Game of Thrones

10. Archie Panjabi - The Good Wife

Here is a pool of contenders with a lot of returning nominees. The first five contenders are all previous nominees and look to be solidly back in the race this year. Anna Gunn had another sensational season on Breaking Bad and I'd say she's good for a second win, but she faces a few threats. Christine Baranski had another fantastic season on The Good Wife, her strongest in a while, and tasked with multiple baity storylines this season, she has no shortage of episodes to pick for a tape. While she isn't as explosive as Gunn, her understated performance and piercing gaze contrasts enough to attract votes her way. Of course, Maggie Smith will probably be back in the race (whether or not you consider that fair is a personal opinion), but she won't win another award for this performance, I think. Emilia Clarke plays probably the most popular character on Game of Thrones, but she faces the major problem of lack of screentime. Although Danaerys is well-liked by most viewers, she usually only gets one or two scenes an episode, and while that was enough for a nomination last year, Clarke is going to need something similar to the big moment in her tape from last year to solidify her place in the race. I still think she's in. Christina Hendricks hasn't received any high notices so far this season on Mad Men, and support for the show is waning, so she's at risk to be dropped, but I have her in for now. In the final slot, I have Michelle Monahan for True Detective, who made an easy task of filling the final slot once True Detective moved to the Drama race. Monahan was a likely nominee for Miniseries/TV Movie Supporting Actress, so I think she'll appear here too, which would be well deserved since Monahan was usually hidden by her bigger and better co-stars Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson. Still, if there's one category where there is guaranteed to be a shock nominee, it's here. In the past four years, no more than four nominees in this category have returned the next year (and of those four nominees, Christine Baranski and Christina Hendricks were nominated each of the past four years). With that in mind, it's possible that one of my top five won't make it back next year to keep with tradition. But since I'm not ready to take that risk yet, I'll list the contenders with the best chance of sneaking in. Bellamy Young is a breakout star on Scandal, and while she's usually hidden by the love for Kerry Washington, she's been building up praise during these past two seasons. Her role allows her to be dirty, sneaky, funny, and boozy, a perfect Emmy concoction. She's got a great shot of sneaking in. Monica Potter was egregiously snubbed last season for the performance of the 2012-2013 TV season, and while her storyline this year was not as great as her cancer storyline last year, Potter is consistently the MVP of the large Parenthood ensemble, and after accumulating a Golden Globe nod, the Emmys might nominate her this year as an apology for being late to the party. While Emilia Clarke looks to be nominated for Game of Thrones, her co-star with much more screentime could sneak in and steal her thunder: Lena Headey. No spoilers, of course, but Headey has been outstanding this season and is the epitome of the character you love to hate. To round out the top ten contenders, I'm going with Archie Panjabi for The Good Wife. A winner in the show's first season and then nominated twice afterward, Panjabi was dropped last year, and for good reason; her character's story nosedived last year, but a rebound might help Panjabi. She's not as fun or essential to the show as she was for her win, but she'd still be a deserving nominee.


Best Comedy Supporting Actor

1. Ty Burrell - Modern Family

2. Tony Hale - Veep

3. Eric Stonestreet - Modern Family

4. Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family

5. Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine-Nine

6. Adam Driver - Girls

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7. Ed O'Neill - Modern Family

8. Timothy Simons - Veep

9. Taran Killam - Saturday Night Live

10. Christopher Evan Welch - Silicon Valley

This one is a bit of a tough category, if only because it's possible there will be no change in last year's line-up. I have Burrell in first, but only because it's basically guaranteed Modern Family will, at the very least, get one nomination in this category and he's the most likely. I don't know if he'll grab a win this year, though. Hot on his tail is last year's victor, Tony Hale, who continues to shine on Veep, but has actually taken a backseat to some of his other co-stars this season. But the Emmys very rarely change the stars they nominate from a series from year to year, so unless they add another Veep actor to the crowded line-up, Hale will most likely be the sole representative for the series in this category again. Eric Stonestreet's snub last year was a bit of a shocker, considering he's the Modern Family actor with the best track record for the show, but I have a feeling voters just assumed he would get in and thus didn't vote for him in order to throw support behind other actors. I don't think the same mistake will be made this year, but if it is and Stonestreet isn't nominated again, that would be an indicator that Emmy voters are not only moving past him, but possibly the show as a whole, even if they snag the lion's share of nominations in this category. But if anyone from Modern Family is deserving of the nomination this year, it is undoubtedly Jesse Tyler Ferguson who has had a great season. He's kind of the straight man of the show (ironically, his character is gay), but he had a few breakout moments this season that would make him deserving of the win. With the right combination of tapes from him and other actors from his show nominated, he could be the third Modern Family actor to win this category. The best shot at a new nominee in this category is Andre Braugher, who, although not considered by fans as one of the strongest characters on the show, is undoubtedly one of the most well-known and also has a history of Emmy love with seven nominations, two of which he garnered wins. Brooklyn Nine-Nine is also the season's hottest new comedy, so that has a lot going for Braugher, who isn't really known for his comedic work, so this would be a change of pace. The final slot, currently, is going to Adam Driver, who would be returning for a second nomination. Although the buzz for Girls has undoubtedly died down, I still think Driver was the strongest part of this season and he can still get a nomination, and it may seem like reaching, but name recognition after coming off being cast in the newest Star Wars movie might work in his favor. But that might be pushing it. There are some other actors fighting for a slot. I have Ed O'Neill outside the ring currently because last year proved voters aren't afraid to drop a Modern Family actor, and if I'm being honest, O'Neill, despite his veteran status, seems like an easy drop. His character is probably the least flashy, and I didn't think he was entirely impressive this season, although he did have his moments. I have a feeling he'll still get in, but I'm not ready to pull the trigger. As discussed earlier, Tony Hale will probably be the only nominee in this category for Veep, but if voters are paying attention to this season, they'd see that nominations would also be warranted for Matt Walsh and Reid Scott, but above them all is Timothy Simons who really has had a breakout season with his love-to-hate-him character's change of job. Simons probably can't break into the crowded category and overcome his co-star, but if he did, it would show that voters are really paying attention to Veep and overall buzz for the actor. I didn't realize until a few weeks ago that, after a rule change that allowed Saturday Night Live actors to be eligible in the Comedy categories despite the show competing for Best Variety Series, an SNL cast member has been nominated in one of the two supporting categories. While the ladies dominated with nominations for Amy Poehler from 2008 to 2009 and Kristen Wiig from 2009 to 2012, Bill Hader grabbed two nominations from 2012 to 2013. Now that Hader is off the show, there's a chance a SNL male cast member could take his spot (although the same thing did not happen last year when Wiig's spot was up for grabs). However, if any male SNL cast member is taking that spot, it's Taran Killam, undoubtedly the strongest male actor in a cast currently dominated by ladies like Kate McKinnon, Cecily Strong, Aidy Bryant and Vanessa Bayer. But Killam still isn't a huge star in the likes of Hader, Poehler, and Wiig, so while he might one day land a nomination, he still has time to go. The final slot goes to a bit of a wildcard. Christopher Evan Welch is easily my favorite part of Silicon Valley, but tragically, he died after only shooting five episodes of the series. However, due to his billing, Welch must compete here rather than in the guest acting category. Because the show doesn't have a lot of buzz and the lack of Welch's presence in the second half of the season, he probably can't get a nomination, but a show of support for an actor's untimely passing could do tricky things and land the biggest surprise nomination of the year.




Best Comedy Supporting Actress

1. Julie Bowen - Modern Family

2. Allison Janney - Mom

3. Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory

4. Sofia Vergara - Modern Family

5. Anna Chlumsky - Veep

6. Kate Mulgrew - Orange Is The New Black

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7. Merritt Wever - Nurse Jackie

8. Haley Cuoco-Sweeting - The Big Bang Theory

9. Jane Lynch - Glee

10. Chelsea Peretti - Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Much like its male counterpart, this category might see very little overturn, but a few shocks in terms of who doesn't return for a nomination. Much like putting Ty Burrell in first place in the male race, I have Julie Bowen in first because I don't see her losing her nomination. But this was not a great season for Bowen, in that she didn't have that many great storylines that would be worthy of an Emmy win. But a nomination still seems likely. A win might be in the cards, however, for a new nominee on a freshman show, but far from an Emmy stranger. Allison Janney has been making a splash in comedic series and movies the past few years, but she's never been nominated for a comedic work, which could change due to her standout role on Mom. In six nominations for The West Wing, Janney won four times, but can she return for a nomination on a new show, let alone a win? We'll have to wait and see, but I think yes. Her competition, likely, is Mayim Bialik, who would be going on her third nomination for The Big Bang Theory, and with buzz for the show at an all-time high, and no clear-cut winner, Bialik might claim the trophy this year as the show's strongest female voice. Sofia Vergara was really shortchanged on an Emmy last year, not at the fault of voters, but the show's writers who did not Vergara the shining material a pregnancy, like the one her character experienced last year, would have warranted. That said, Vergara is still doing a fine job on the show and would be deserving of the nomination, but her time to win an Emmy for Modern Family is running out. Anna Chlumsky, the straight man of Veep, surprised with a nomination last year, and she'll probably return this year. She isn't the wacky, outrageous character that is often rewarded here, but she does distinctly stand out in the Veep ensemble, and with no other female supporting players making a play for the win (Veep writers: give Sufe Bradshaw more material!!), she'll be back. For the final spot, name recognition and a hot new show could land Kate Mulgrew a nomination. Although there are other actresses who might be more worthy of a nomination in this large ensemble, the easiest to pick out is likely Mulgrew, whose claim to fame is a stint in the late 1990s on Star Trek: Voyager. The show's large female ensemble is competing in either supporting or guest categories (minus Taylor Schilling), and the staggering number of actresses might make it hard for any one to make it in. Still, I'm taking Mulgrew in the top tier. Just missing out? Meritt Wever was last year's biggest surprise winner (I seriously had her ranked last), but that non-speech was the most memorable bit of the Emmys. After a win like that for a role on a show no one is really praising anymore, I wouldn't be surprised to see her get her win and get dropped. It's happened before, and with so many deserving actresses, I think it's entirely likely. I've said it multiple times in my past two posts, but I think there might be a swell of praise for The Big Bang Theory, and in this category, that might be good news for Haley Cuoco-Sweeting, who would be getting her first Emmy nomination. I'll personally say that Cuoco-Sweeting has only gotten better as the show has gone on, so a nomination would be very welcome. Jane Lynch, a previous winner in this category, took everyone by surprise last year with a nomination for Glee, a show most people thought the Emmys were over, and after this year, I'd say that's still the case. But Lynch is well-liked and very popular, and weirder things have happened. But it would be robbing a more deserving actress, say...Chelsea Peretti of Brooklyn Nine-Nine. The breakout character of Brooklyn Nine-Nine is Peretti's Gina, who is extremely weird and divisive, almost in the vein of Jane Krakowski's Jenna Maroney on 30 Rock. Peretti would be following a great path in that comparison, as Krakowski earned four nominations for that role over 30 Rock's run. But even Krakowski missed out on a nomination in her first year, so maybe it's better luck next year, Peretti.

"State of the Race" (Emmys): May 19th

"State of the Race" is my column to give predictions on upcoming awards ceremonies. I will provide a ranked list of the nominees and commentary, and I will update once a week. With two months before Emmy nominations are announced, let's take a look at how the race is shaping up.

Best Drama Series
1. Breaking Bad
2. True Detective
3. House of Cards
4. Game of Thrones
5. The Good Wife
6. Mad Men
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7. Downton Abbey
8. Homeland
9. Masters of Sex
10. Scandal

This is a pretty tight race for the win -- for the nomination, it's a less severe story. The top four (Breaking Bad, True Detective, House of Cards, and Game of Thrones) are practically guaranteed nominations. They are the hottest dramas on TV and are universally praised. Breaking Bad is the reigning champ, and this season (the final eight episodes of the series) is stronger than the season it won for last year. True Detective was assumed to be the frontrunner in the Miniseries categories, but then swapped over to the Drama categories, making for an exciting race. House of Cards is coming off of a hot second season and Game of Thrones is in the midst of it's biggest season yet. For the last two spots, there is more competition. Honestly, any of the remaining shows on the list could take the last two spots. Scandal is the hottest show on network TV right now, but it is extremely over-the-top so while the Emmys might embrace the acting (Kerry Washington was nominated last year and guest star Dan Bucatinsky won a guest acting Emmy), they might not go for it in the series race. Masters of Sex was primed as the year's hottest newcomer, but airing last fall, it may not be remembered. Homeland won this award two years ago, but in a saddening fall from grace, the show was not well received in its third season. If the Emmys refuse to give up a solid contender that won this award, it may make it back in there to critics' chagrin, but with the high quality of so many dramas, it doesn't seem likely. Downton Abbey seems to somehow slide into this race, but I think it'll just miss the cut for the last two spots. So who gets it? The Good Wife, a show in its fifth season, experienced a huge creative turnaround this year with shocking storylines, amazing performances, and high caliber writing and directing, and although this is a show that was dropped in this category after its second season, the serious buzz that has spanned the whole television season should grab the series a spot among cable TV's best as the lone representative of network TV dramas. Finally, I'm expecting Mad Men to make it into the race once again. Although this show is absolutely nowhere near the Emmy powerhouse it was in its first few years, I just don't see the Emmys dropping this show. I think it'll finish out its run next year with nominations for every season (whether they're deserved or not is another matter).

Best Comedy Series
1. Modern Family
2. The Big Bang Theory
3. Veep
4. Louie
5. Orange Is The New Black
6. Girls
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7. Brooklyn Nine-Nine
8. Silicon Valley
9. Parks and Recreation
10. Shameless

This is shaping up to be quite an interesting race. To start, this race really comes down to the first eight contenders. Numbers nine and ten (Parks and Recreation & Shameless) have a slight chance of making it into the list of nominees, but this won't be their time. So of the eight contenders left, what's to say of them? Modern Family is the four-time reigning champ, so it's pretty much all but assured a nomination. Many people say that the show's wins for the third and fourth season are not warranted, but even doubters will agree that Modern Family had a return to form this season, so it is possible they'll get a fifth win and becoming the comedy series with the most wins in this category. Who are its competitors? The Big Bang Theory has grown over the course of its run and is now not only the top comedy series, but top scripted show on television this season. The show has blown up and is the broadest hit on a network television station since Friends. Remember that Friends was a show that had to wait until its eighth season to win this prize, and with Big Bang in its seventh, it is possible it could follow the same path, especially if voters are tired of Modern Family. Both shows will have to compete with a monster of a different kind: Veep. Cable television's best shot at a win in this category comes from the HBO comedy which is on a hot streak and has a chance to breakthrough with a victory this year. Louie is back this year, although the season was not expected to premiere in time for this year's Emmy season. But alas, much like Veep, Louie is airing as Emmy discussions are heating up, and it looks good for a nomination since this season has maintained good reviews. I personally don't see this as the kind of show that will win the Best Comedy Series Emmy, but it should be good for a nomination. Orange Is The New Black will be the most curious show to keep an eye on this Emmy season. The show is competing in the Comedy categories after submitting in the Drama categories at other awards shows such as the Golden Globes (where it only garnered one nomination for Best Actress) and the Screen Actors Guild Awards (where it received no nominations). The problem is that many don't agree with the definition of this prison saga as a comedy, but I think it'll get a nomination, and if they do, they might even surprise with a serious run for the win. Girls is a two-time nominee in this category, and after a Homeland-type critical decline in favor of the show in the second season, this third season was a bit more well received (although I actually prefer season two to seasons one and three). I'm predicting Girls to make the cut, so what shows are peeking in from the outside? Brooklyn Nine-Nine just won two Golden Globes including Best Comedy Series and is network TV's hottest new comedy, but it's small audience means it may not have enough word of mouth to garner a nomination, despite praise for the show across the board. Silicon Valley has the plum post-Game of Thrones spot on HBO and leads into Veep, and when reviews first surfaced for the show, the word was that HBO would have a broad hit on its hands, but that hasn't been exactly the case. The show has garnered favorable reaction, but not show-stopping praise as expected from initial reviews. Still, critical praise could boost the show into the top six.

Best Drama Actor
1. Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad
2. Kevin Spacey - House of Cards
3. Matthew McConaughey - True Detective
4. Jon Hamm - Mad Men
5. James Spader - The Blacklist
6. Woody Harrelson - True Detective
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7. Michael Sheen - Masters of Sex
8. Jeff Daniels - The Newsroom
9. Damian Lewis - Homeland
10. Matthew Rhys - The Americans

What a category this year, especially when you consider the two previous winners of this award are ranked in the lower tier of this analysis. Bryan Cranston, of course, ranks in the top spot, and it would seem almost impossible for him to lose this award considering his stellar performance in the last few episodes of the series. However, he does face extremely rough competition. Kevin Spacey is absolutely deserving of an Emmy for his performance on House of Cards, but because he does not often get the show-stopping, everything-but-the-kitchen-sink scenes that Cranston has, he might have to wait until next year when Cranston is not in his way. Still, a third contender can make a run for the trophy. True Detective, which as stated above was not expected to compete in the Drama categories, is making a serious threat to the Best Drama Actor award with not one, but two performances. This year's Oscar winner for Best Actor, Matthew McConaughey, might pick up a matching Emmy with his chilling performance in the HBO series. He certainly has the buzz and star power to match (and maybe even triumph) Cranston and Spacey, and his performance is every bit as transformative as the role he won his Academy Award for in Dallas Buyers Club. However, McConaughey's co-star Woody Harrelson is also competing in this category, and with the majority of the buzz going to McConaughey, it's possible Harrelson could be (unfairly) snubbed, but I've got a good feeling he'll make it in, which would be very impressive for the show. Jon Hamm is a utility nominee, and he'll likely make the lineup once again, although he'll be a bridesmaid once again. Maybe next year in the show's final season he can finally eke out a win. James Spader is the star of network TV's hottest new drama, The Blacklist, and with acclaim plus three Emmy wins, he should take a spot at the nominee's table. But who might surprise and snatch a spot? Michael Sheen's performance on Masters of Sex is understated, but outstanding, and if the show had a little more buzz, he might make it into the lineup. Jeff Daniels won last year in a surprise victory, but with praise for The Newsroom almost non-existent and many great performances looking to be noticed, it might be one-and-done for Daniels (don't worry, it's happened plenty of other times before). Damian Lewis won this prize in Homeland's first season and looked to take it again last year, but it is a new story this time around with his character having very minimal presence this season. In fact, many are confused as to why Showtime submitted him in this category. Since he didn't play a huge part in this season of Homeland, I don't think he'll land a nomination, but if he does happen to sneak in, you can really never say never when it comes to Homeland. Finally, Matthew Rhys, half of the leading couple on FX's The Americans, has an outside chance, but since buzz for the show isn't as high as last season, and because of the show's lack of a presence in last year's nominations, it is a very small shot at a nomination.

Best Drama Actress
1. Robin Wright - House of Cards
2. Claire Danes - Homeland
3. Kerry Washington - Scandal
4. Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife
5. Elisabeth Moss - Mad Men
6. Tatiana Maslany - Orphan Black
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7. Vera Farmiga - Bates Motel
8. Lizzy Caplan - Masters of Sex
9. Keri Russell - The Americans
10. Michelle Dockery - Downton Abbey

This is another exciting race that could see a lot of variety and some well-deserved nominations. In fact, any combination of these ladies could end up being announced on nomination day, and potentially (much like last year), we may see more than six nominees in this category. Robin Wright is riding a wave of buzz right now after snatching House of Cards' first acting award with the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama Series this January, and with it came a larger and fiercer presence in the second season of House of Cards. She has a great storyline that is begging for an Emmy win, but of course, it's not that simple. She's got three-time champion (and winner of this category for the past two years) Claire Danes, whose show might have seen a decrease in buzz, but her performance remains its strongest component. Especially if voters don't give the show its due in other categories, Danes can still get a third Emmy for this role. The buzziest potential nominee might just be Kerry Washington, whose soap drama requires a lot from her. I mean, I sometimes get exhausted listening to her spew out those awesome monologues. Add in the fact that Washington was pregnant for most of this season and Scandal's rising buzz, and it's possible that the Emmys might give this award to TV's It girl (and the first African-American to win this category). Julianna Margulies was shockingly snubbed last year despite seven nominees, but that shouldn't be the case this year. Along with the rise in buzz for The Good Wife, Margulies has gotten huge praise for her portrayal, especially after That Thing That Happened In The Middle Of The Season (no spoilers here). She might even make a run at the big prize itself. Elisabeth Moss is much like Jon Hamm in terms of getting the nomination, but never the win, and I think she'll make it back into the race this year, although I haven't heard much about her performance this season. The last spot (as with most spots in this race) could really go to anyone, but I'm going out on a limb and saying Tatiana Maslany will make a huge breakthrough. Orphan Black is a show with defeaning buzz, and there was outrage last year when Maslany wasn't honored. What makes Maslany's snub interesting is that it wasn't for one performance, but eight! Maslany plays all versions of a group of clones, with distinct accents and quirks to utter perfection. However, the Emmys have never taken kindly to sci-fi shows, largely why many think Maslany was snubbed, plus the show airs on BBC America, a network largely ignored by the Emmys. But her name is on everyone's tongue this year and I think Emmy voters will take notice this time around. However, she's got some people hot on her heels. Vera Farmiga, a nominee last year, turned in an equally impressive performance this season on Bates Motel and could show up once again. Lizzy Caplan got a lot of buzz for playing a headstrong woman going against stereotypes on Masters of Sex, but buzz has died down. Keri Russell is another actress who will suffer from lack of buzz for her show/performance, and finally, Michelle Dockery has been seen as a filler nominee these past few years, and I think this year may be the year we don't hear her name, but if it's in favor of these fine performances, that works for me.

Best Comedy Actor
1. Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
2. Louis CK - Louie
3. Andy Samberg - Brooklyn Nine-Nine
4. Don Cheadle - House of Lies
5. Thomas Middleditch - Silicon Valley
6. Johnny Galecki - The Big Bang Theory
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7. Robin Williams - The Crazy Ones
8. Matt LeBlanc - Episodes
9. William H. Macy - Shameless
10. Michael J. Fox - The Michael J. Fox Show

This might actually be one of the hardest categories to predict just because of how weak it is. In fact, I would say the only locks in this category are the top two actors. Jim Parsons is a three-time winner in this category and the undeniable frontrunner. With a fourth win this year, Parsons would tie Michael J. Fox, Kelsey Grammar and Carroll O'Connor for the most wins in this category. Since The Big Bang Theory isn't slowing down anytime soon and Parsons certainly isn't facing a lot of major competition, it could happen. There are a few factors that stand in his way. Louis CK is back in the race, but I'm not sure he'll ever win an acting award for Louie. He has already won for directing, and a writing win will likely happen at some point in the show's run, but I'm just not sure it's the kind of performance that wins this category. However, he will most likely get another nomination. Andy Samberg is another one to watch out for. Samberg took him the Best Comedy Actor Golden Globe in a surprise win, and the only thing that hurts him is that Brooklyn Nine-Nine isn't a big new hit, but rather has a small audience. Regardless, he should get in on name recognition in addition to the fact that it's just a good performance. He might even surprise and win here too if his tape and buzz match up perfectly. Don Cheadle is a name that has popped up way too many times on this list. As someone who has watched House of Lies episodes purely for analyzing the tapes, it is absolutely nothing special in my opinion and Cheadle shouldn't be nominated. But the lack of competition means that name-checking will once again come into play and we should expect Cheadle to get another unwarranted nomination. Really, beyond that, it is anybody's guess. Michael J. Fox looked to have this award locked up back in the beginning of the season, and then something happened...his show bombed. With The Michael J. Fox Show long forgotten, I doubt he'll pop up here (but a guest nom for The Good Wife is definitely not out of the question). William H. Macy does a great job on Shameless (I'm in the middle of my bingewatch and I just finished season two), and while the show competed in the Drama categories during its first three seasons, it is now in the Comedy categories. The lack of competition and the switch could work in Macy's favor, but it's really too hard to say right now which is why I think he'll miss out. Matt LeBlanc is in another Don Cheadle-type situation where he really shouldn't be getting nominated for his show, but he will just because. But I'm not predicting him this year...I think voters are gonna try and shake things up in this category. One way to do that would be nominating Robin Williams. In the same way that Michael J. Fox could've been a lock, many said the same thing about Williams. But while The Crazy Ones didn't get axed halfway through the season, it did get canned by CBS after the season finished airing. As buzz died down during the season and the show is one-and-done, the Emmys would be making a big statement by nominating Williams, but I don't see it happening. So who do I think can make it in? Right now, I'm going with two fresh faces to the category. Thomas Middleditch is the lead of Silicon Valley, a show that was supposed to make a big splash, but now appears to be waning. I think it's possible, however, that the Emmys give Silicon Valley a bone and throw Middleditch a nomination, and in a category where there's barely any high-caliber competition, it could certainly happen. And for a bit of an "out there" pick, I'm going with Johnny Galecki, nominating him alongside his co-star Parsons. While Parsons has always gotten the Emmy love for the show (minus his on-screen girlfriend Mayim Bialik), Galecki is well-respected and built a strong case for himself. With the show's broad appeal at an all-time high, this could be the year Galecki finally slips into the race, and let's be honest -- if it came at the expense of nominations for Cheadle and LeBlanc, that would not be the worst thing.

Best Comedy Actress
1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus - Veep
2. Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation
3. Lena Dunham - Girls
4. Taylor Schilling - Orange Is The New Black
5. Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie
6. Anna Faris - Mom
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7. Melissa McCarthy - Mike and Molly
8. Zooey Deschanel - New Girl
9. Emmy Rossum - Shameless
10. Laurie Metcalf - Getting On

A category with a lot of ladies who could grab the award, but will probably fall victim to one Lady Dreyfus. Julia Louis-Dreyfus is absolutely guaranteed a nomination and (most likely) a win for a third time for her portrayal of Selina Meyer on Veep. With the show on fire, and Louis-Dreyfus doing a lot of press for the new season, she's bigger than ever and the same can be said of the character, whose character is in the middle of a great campaign arc. Who will join her in the nomination circle? Amy Poehler, who beat Louis-Dreyfus for the Golden Globe (although that's probably more to do with her hosting the ceremony with Tina Fey), can probably count on another nomination, but with next season being her last, she has limited opportunities to avoid becoming another Steve Carell (beloved actor who never won for an acclaimed role). Lena Dunham's acting on Girls has only gotten better this season, and it's probably the show's best shot at a major nomination this year since it teeters on the edge in other categories. Her performance is ballsy, but compared to the broad humor of Poehler and Louis-Dreyfus, I don't know if it can win (perhaps with the right tape). Taylor Schilling stands a good shot at being the lone acting representative for Orange Is The New Black because of the large ensemble, but it would be a very deserved nomination. Edie Falco will likely get another nomination for Nurse Jackie, but the show is past its heyday and she's already got a win, so she'll have to settle for more nominations. Joining Schilling as newcomers to this category (which is losing two nominees from cancelled/finished shows last year in Laura Dern from Enlightened and Tina Fey from 30 Rock) could be Anna Faris from Mom. Yes, she's a movie actress who made the small screen transition but the surprising development of Mom from dirty humor sitcom to heartwarming, thoughtful comedy showed that Faris has the chops and could get a nomination. Who could miss out? Two previous nominees who missed the boat last year, Melissa McCarthy and Zooey Deschanel, could sneak back in, but my guess is that they're done. Many attribute McCarthy's win and second nomination to the success of Bridesmaids, but while she's only become a bigger star since then, it's really just obvious that a nomination for her would be a name-check for a beloved comedic actress. Zooey Deschanel (who was robbed of a second season nomination) won't get back into the race this year if Emmy voters take into consideration the decline in quality of New Girl from its outstanding second season. Two cable ladies might get an outside shot. Emmy Rossum is in the same boat as co-star William H. Macy, and while she would be a deserving nominee, it's not possible to say if Emmy voters will adore Shameless now that it is considered a comedy. Finally, Laurie Metcalf has name recognition going for her, but with many saying her placement is category fraud and virtually no buzz surrounding her show, it is an outside shot.

I'll be back next week to discuss the supporting categories, so check back next Monday for the next "State of the Race!"

Evan