Emmy Race Analysis: Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

In this installment of the Emmy Race Analysis, we'll be looking at the Guest Actress in a Comedy race, where half of the nominees hail from the same show, tapes overlap, and voter preference over comedic vs. dramatic will certainly determine the winner. But first, the nominees and their submitted tapes...

Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
Uzo Aduba - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
Laverne Cox - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
Joan Cusack - Shameless (episode: "Liver, I Hardly Know Her")
Tina Fey - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Tina Fey")
Natasha Lyonne - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "WAC Pack")
Melissa McCarthy - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Melissa McCarthy")

There is something to be noted about the episode submission process. In some categories, there are situations where more than one actor from a show is nominated in a single category. As a result, voters sometimes watch multiple episodes of the same show when voting in a single category. As a result, the nominated actors from the same show in that category appear in each other's episodes, giving what some may call an unfair advantage. In the heyday of "Modern Family"'s Emmy success, all four men of the adult ensemble (Ty Burrell, Eric Stonestreet, Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Ed O'Neill) were nominated, so each actor had their own tape, plus three others. Although their own submitted episode was specifically theirs, it certainly helped if they made an impact in their co-star's tapes as well. For example, when Ty Burrell won his Emmy for season two of "Modern Family," he submitted a great episode for himself, but also had equally good performances in his co-star's episodes that certainly helped voters realize he was the most deserving nominee. Is it fair that stars who have co-stars nominated get multiple chances to make an impression? Maybe not. But does it make a difference? I'd say yes.

This year, with "Modern Family" only having two men nominated in Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series, another series took the category dominance award, with "Orange Is the New Black" taking up half of the six nominees for Guest Actress in a Comedy Series. However, in a rare instance, two of the "OITNB" ladies in this category actually submitted the same episode. This, however, is not a fault of their own, but rather a result of the Emmy voting system. Nominated actors in the lead and supporting categories submit episodes after they have been nominated, but guest actors must submit episodes for consideration prior to nomination voting. In this case, co-stars from each other's shows cannot rely on each other to submit episodes that make each other look good, but rather focus on themselves. In this case, Uzo Aduba and Laverne Cox both submitted the episode "Lesbian Request Denied," which is each actress' strongest episode of season one. By a stroke of luck, they were both nominated (I only predicted Aduba to get nominated from "OITNB" in this category), and they cannot change their submission, so each woman is getting analyzed for the same episode. So which actress shines brightest in this episode? That depends certainly on who you ask. "OITNB" episodes are structured to include flashbacks, and this episode highlights flashbacks of Cox's character and her transformation from a man to a woman. It's a baity storyline that allows raw emotion and challenging acting obstacles on Cox's behalf. It's not a particularly funny performance, but the performance sticks with you. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Aduba is hysterical in this episode. Her screen time isn't as lengthy as Cox's, but when she's on-screen, she is unstoppable. She has one memorable scene after another (for "OITNB" fans: this episode alone contains 1. "chocolate and vanilla swirl," 2. "I threw my pie for you," and 3. peeing outside Piper's bunk) and is truly laugh-out-loud funny in all of her appearances. Aduba's character, Crazy Eyes, was the breakout character of the show's first season, and although she didn't get an episode dedicated to herself, this was the closest thing to a showcase for her. It just so happened to also be Cox's showcase episode, so we're in a unique predicament with two actresses submitting the same episode. The question is which performance will voters prefer: the more dramatic but larger and emotionally effective showcase for Cox or the show-stopping, hysterically outrageous, but much shorter performance from Aduba?

Joan Cusack's show, "Shameless," made the switch from drama to comedy categories this year, and as  a result, she retains her nomination in the guest acting categories, but now as a comedic actress. Thankfully, this does wonders for Cusack because her character has always been comedic on a show that rides the boundary from time to time. When competing in the dramatic categories, Cusack always was a quirky nominee, with her performances always being more obviously comedic than dramatic, but now she fits right in. This could definitely propel her to a win, especially now that she's on her fourth nomination for "Shameless." Her episode is great, in which she plays a manic bride-to-be who arranges an underground liver transplant for her barely conscious soon-to-be husband (yep, you read that right). It's about as ridiculous as it sounds, and only an actress like Cusack could pull of the utter insanity of it all while retaining moments of empathy for her character and delivering some killer one-liners. To call Cusack the dark horse in this race would be putting it lightly; she is fully in this for the win. Tina Fey hosted the season premiere of "SNL," and while she is always delightful, there was not a whole lot that was memorable about this appearance, especially weighed against Fey's previous victory in this category for her uncanny impersonation of Sarah Palin. Yes, that was one skit and now she has a whole episode, but nothing is as memorable as that performance. The highlight is probably the spoof of the comedy series "Girls" in which Fey plays a new girl named Blerta from Albania, but beyond that, Fey doesn't shine brighter than some of the other cast members. She's good, yes, but it feels like she's just one of the regular cast members, and that's probably because she used to be one of them. I just don't see Fey winning an Emmy for a performance that's good, but not great.

Referring back to the "OITNB" situation, Natasha Lyonne rounds out the trio from the series nominated in this category, but her presence does less for Cox and Aduba than their tape does for her. Neither episode really helps the actresses out, because while "Lesbian Request Denied" puts a focus on Cox and Aduba, they are barely present in Lyonne's tape, "WAC Pack." This is where things get interesting: Cox gets a mostly dramatic story, whereas Aduba is all about the laughs. Lyonne falls somewhere in between. She gets very funny lines, but her story also elicits empathy from the audience and allows for some more dramatic moments. If voters are torn between Cox and Aduba, Lyonne might end up being a happy medium. The focus on the "OITNB" ladies might be on Cox and Aduba, but Lyonne cold be a surprise winner. Finally, Melissa McCarthy is nominated again for hosting "SNL," but as I've said before, her appearance this time, while funny, is not as good as her last stint, which I really thought she'd win an Emmy for. That did not happen, which makes me doubt that a weaker episode like this could do the trick. Yes, stranger things have happened, but McCarthy's episode puts a focus on her strength in playing weirdos, and that doesn't give a lot of room for range, which voters look for. Yes, she can definitely still win because she is funny, even hysterical at points in this episode, but she's got stronger competitors.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Laverne Cox - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
2. Uzo Aduba - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
3. Joan Cusack - Shameless (episode: "Liver, I Hardly Know Her")
4. Melissa McCarthy - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Melissa McCarthy")
5. Natasha Lyonne - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "WAC Pack")
6. Tina Fey - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Tina Fey")

Cox delivers the overall most impressive performance, but Aduba's portrayal certainly requires a specific skill that she absolutely nails, so that cannot be discredited. Cusack is nuts in her tape, but she gets the all-important range and empathy. McCarthy is very funny, but doesn't travel too far out of her comfort zone. Lyonne is a dark horse, bringing in an understated but funny performance. Fey has the weakest tape of all the nominees.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Tina Fey - Saturday Night Live
5. Natasha Lyonne - Orange Is the New Black
4. Melissa McCarthy - Saturday Night Live
3. Joan Cusack - Shameless
2. Laverne Cox - Orange Is the New Black
1. Uzo Aduba - Orange Is the New Black

The only one I would say has close to no chance of winning is Fey. It's not like she's in dire need of an Emmy win, her tape is just okay, and the competition is honestly just too strong. Any of the rest of the five, though, I can see winning. Lyonne is the dark horse that we really should be watching out for, but I can't rank her any higher because her competitors are just too strong. Still, she can definitely win this. She has the right balance of range and empathy, plus she's downright funny. McCarthy is great in her episode, and with voters nominating her again this year for "Mike and Molly" in the Lead Actress in a Comedy Series category, it's possible that Emmy voters are falling back in love with her. Cusack is finally where she belongs, and she can be welcomed to the comedy categories with a win. She's the most overdue of all the contestants, has a very baity storyline, and she's a well-respected actress. But interestingly enough, this race comes down to the two "OITNB" ladies with the same tape. Cox's win would be historical: she's already the first transgender nominated for an Emmy, and a victory would make her the first transgender winner. She's got a tape that almost has it all, including a transformation, raw emotion, laughs, and a central focus. Her largest obstacle, though, and the one that I think will win, is her co-star Aduba. The Emmy voters clearly loved "OITNB," and anyone that watched the first season instantly loved Aduba's performance as Crazy Eyes. She's the most recognizable character from the show, she delivered memorable moments in almost every episode she appeared, and she's portrayed by a fresh actress in her first major role. It's a story that seems tailor made for an Emmy win, and I think her flashier moments will overall lead to a victory in this category.

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Starting today, it's time for the Emmy Race Analysis -- analyzing individual races based on episodes submitted by the nominated actors and actresses, ranking the actors based on strength of tapes, and concluded by ranking the nominees in likelihood of winning. Today, we will begin with the guest acting categories for comedy.

NOTE: There are mild episode spoilers, so if you are in the process of watching any of these series or do not want to be spoiled about character arcs, episode details, etc., proceed with caution.

Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
Steve Buscemi - Portlandia (episode: "Celery")
Louis CK - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Louis CK)
Gary Cole - Veep (episode: "Crate")
Jimmy Fallon - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Jimmy Fallon")
Nathan Lane - Modern Family (episode: "The Wedding, Part 2")
Bob Newhart - The Big Bang Theory (episode: "The Proton Transmogrification")

Buscemi is probably the biggest surprise nominee here, mostly because "Portlandia" was ignored in the acting categories before this year (Fred Armisen grabbed a supporting nomination for the first time this year). The show itself is a variety show with a unique setup; there is one major story per episode with a few smaller, unrelated stories interweaving. In Buscemi's episode, he takes on the lead story as the main character, an advertising agent assigned with "redefining celery." It's a ridiculous plot that only gets weirder (he meets with an adviser who agrees to help him but only if Buscemi's wife sleeps with him), but Buscemi is strong throughout. He's over-the-top without playing it too hammy. It certainly could have its supporters, but I just don't think its strong enough to win an Emmy. Louis CK returned to host "SNL" and won another Emmy nomination for it, but his effort this time around is nowhere close to his first episode. There are no standout skits, and CK, while solid, doesn't get a chance to shine and steal the show. The most memorable moment of the episode is his monologue, which comes early in the hour and basically is a Louis CK ten-minute stand-up special. That's won him awards in the variety categories previously, but it won't win him an acting Emmy. Gary Cole plays one of the straight man roles on "Veep," but he is very well respected in the industry and has earned his first Emmy nomination with this role. In his submitted episode, he doesn't have a lot to do, but he is integral to the two main plots of the episode: he provides Selina with the titular crate that she stands on during her campaign, and he is the character that delivers news to Selina that she is going to be the next President of the United States. Beyond that, though, he's largely absent and doesn't do anything stellar in the episode, so he won't have much to contribute to the race.

Jimmy Fallon had a huge year with becoming the newest host of "The Tonight Show" and a lauded return to "SNL," where he hosted the Christmas episode. Fallon's episode was definitely one of (if not the) best of the year, and his presence is a large contributing factor. There are plenty of standout sketches where Fallon is front and center, and the episode does have a lot of celebrity guests (notably Justin Timberlake, who guest-starred alongside Fallon in multiple skits), but he is not overshadowed once. Fallon has won this category before and he can definitely do it again. Nathan Lane really stole the show during this year's "Modern Family" finale. The final episodes center around the wedding of Cam and Mitch, and Lane plays their friend/wedding planner, who is in an eternal emotional downward spiral as things go from bad to worse to chaotic. Lane gets some killer one-liners, and in an episode that focuses heavily on the ensemble, even in the presence of the marriage of two main characters, Lane is still a standout. He might be the downright funniest of the nominees, but because he has to split screen time with the large ensemble, he may suffer from not sticking out enough. Finally, last year's winner Bob Newhart comes to defend his title with an episode that almost seems like Emmy bait. However, things go backward: within the first few minutes of the episode's opening, we find out Newhart's character has passed away. Newhart's performance is actually as a ghost, a figment of Sheldon's imagination. He has some humorous moments and even gets to have a heartfelt moment or two, a good mix of range. Of course, the sight of Newhart in "Star Wars" garb is funny in and of itself. He can definitely repeat.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Jimmy Fallon - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Jimmy Fallon")
2. Bob Newhart - The Big Bang Theory (episode: "The Proton Transmogrification")
3. Nathan Lane - Modern Family (episode: "The Wedding, Part 2")
4. Steve Buscemi - Portlandia (episode: "Celery")
5. Louis CK - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Louis CK")
6. Gary Cole - Veep (episode: "Crate")

Fallon and Newhart definitely have the best episodes, with Lane coming in close behind in a true scene-stealing performance. Buscemi's performance is good, but not great, with CK and Cole having okay episodes. I personally think the race is down to the top three. Fallon gives a great comedic performance, playing multiple characters and showing off a new side in every skit. Newhart is a beloved actor giving a unique performance in a role that has already won him an Emmy. Lane is a scene-stealer that should have voters laughing out loud.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Gary Cole - Veep
5. Steve Buscemi - Portlandia
4. Louis CK - Saturday Night Live
3. Nathan Lane - Modern Family
2. Bob Newhart - The Big Bang Theory
1. Jimmy Fallon - Saturday Night Live

I'm predicting Fallon for the win. He has a lot of buzz thanks to "The Tonight Show" gig, and his episode is the best showcase of the nominees. Newhart is a previous winner, yes, but a lot of that might have to do with the fact that Emmys wanted to give him an award since he is a celebrated television actor who had previously never won an Emmy. If he wins again this year, it's proof that the Emmys just really enjoy his performance on the show. However, this episode isn't Newhart's strongest appearance on "TBBT" this season (his appearance earlier in the season was much funnier, but did lack the emotional impact that this episode provides). Still, his character has a big influence over the tone of this episode that strikes heartstrings the other nominees cannot. Nathan Lane could definitely trump these two if voters are looking to reward a laugh-out-loud, true comedic performance. This is a perfect example of loud, sarcastic, over-the-top acting, but the Emmys haven't rewarded that kind of performance here in a while. Still, tides can change. CK definitely has name recognition going for him; if voters had actually watched his episode of "SNL" before voting for him to be a nominee, they'd see that he probably isn't worthy this year. Still, the Emmys just love this guy, and that alone can earn him votes. "Portlandia" is unestablished in the acting categories, and while another variety series, "SNL," has had immense success in these categories, their hosts dominate episodes. Buscemi doesn't exactly dominate, and combined with the lack of a track record for "Portlandia," I don't think Buscemi will win the trophy. Finally, although Cole is well respected and has a shot at an Emmy for the first time in his lengthy career, I don't see him getting a win based on that alone. Even last year, Newhart had a lot of buzz, a good performance, and he was much more overdue for an Emmy. Cole's performance is the weakest of the bunch, and I don't see the desire to award "Veep" being enough for Cole to win. This race is definitely Fallon v. Newhart, with Lane as the dark horse.

State of the Race (Emmys): July 24th

Here is part two of this week's "State of the Race" featuring the comedy guest acting, writing, and directing categories. Next week, I'll be covering the drama categories and beginning individual category rundowns including tape analysis! But for now, here's part two of the comedy categories "State of the Race":

Best Comedy Guest Actor

1. Jimmy Fallon – Saturday Night Live

2. Bob Newhart – The Big Bang Theory

3. Nathan Lane – Modern Family

4. Louis CK – Saturday Night Live

5. Gary Cole – Veep

6. Steve Buscemi – Portlandia

This one is a fun battle between an old comedic legend and the hottest one of the moment. Bob Newhart is the reigning winner here, winning his first ever Emmy last year for his appearance on "The Big Bang Theory." This year, he's nominated again after appearing twice more this season. There's obviously still some Newhart love in Emmy voters hearts since they sometimes reward performances and move on the following year despite the actor's appearance, but they've nominated Newhart again. Could another Emmy be brewing? Or was last year's win more of a makeup for snubbing Newhart throughout his legendary career? Indeed, you might remember that when he presented at the Emmys last year and co-presenter (and "TBBT" co-star) Jim Parsons mentioned Newhart had won his first Emmy ever, the crowd gave him a standing ovation. The award might've been more of a "thanks for your legendary career, here's an Emmy finally" kind of deal than an actual award of performance. That's not to discredit the performance, I actually prefer Newhart's appearances this season to the one that got him the Emmy. And if more voters think like me, that might indicate a second win for this character. However, he's got major competition in Jimmy Fallon, who has also won this award for the same show he's nominated for this year, "Saturday Night Live." This time around, Fallon's star is bigger as he's now the prolific host of "The Tonight Show" and arguably one of the most famous comedians around. Additionally, he has another knockout episode that could easily win him the Emmy. This award could probably go in either actor's favor, but I think Fallon will win and add the award as another milestone in an already fantastic year. Still, an upset could brew below. Nathan Lane has been nominated three times now for his "Modern Family" role, but this is arguably the best the character has ever been. As a crazed wedding planner, Lane got to shine brighter than ever this year and had many laugh-out-loud moments this season. That overdue status added could make him an upset in this category. Louis CK is nominated again for hosting "Saturday Night Live," but this appears to be more of a case of name-checking because his episode is really nothing special, so he won't make it to the podium. Gary Cole is just fine on "Veep," but not as impressive as his other nominated co-stars, and in an understated (and sometimes very small) role, he doesn't have the winning formula. Finally, Steve Buscemi racked up a surprise nomination, but with voters really only embracing "Portlandia" this year and an unproven track record for this type of show, I can't pull the trigger on a win just yet.

Best Comedy Guest Actress

1. Uzo Aduba – Orange Is the New Black

2. Laverne Cox – Orange Is the New Black

3. Joan Cusack – Shameless

4. Melissa McCarthy – Saturday Night Live

5. Natasha Lyonne – Orange Is the New Black

6. Tina Fey – Saturday Night Live

Wow, talk about a dead heat. This is going to be a fun one to predict. Let's start with the three "OITNB" ladies: Uzo Aduba has the buzz on her side, Laverne Cox has history and compassion, and Natasha Lyonne has underdog status. Aduba is arguably the show's breakout star and her performance is scene-stealing without being too over-the-top and overbearing. Everyone loves Crazy Eyes and if voters are watching this show, they'll love her too and the award could easily be hers. But not so fast; Cox has the recipe for a history-making win. She is the first-ever transgender nominee at the Emmys, and could make that into a first-ever transgender win. That'd be a huge landmark in Emmy history, especially in an era of rewarding more LGBT characters/actors than ever before, and they might reward themselves by giving Cox the hardware. Additionally, Cox's performance has the most emotional depth of any other nominee, as she goes through her transformation on-screen and deals with the repercussions. That's something that'll stick with voters. Finally, Lyonne was the biggest surprise to see on this list out of the three "OITNB" ladies, but it's a very deserving nominee. Lyonne is hysterical on the show, and she gets a good balance of laughs and heart, often being the misunderstood voice of reason. If voters want to find a balance between Aduba's wild character and Cox's emotional portrayal, Lyonne's performance of Nicky could be the answer. But alas, there are three other nominees with a shot at gold. Two of them are previously-nominated "SNL" hosts: Tina Fey and Melissa McCarthy. Fey is a previous winner here from her Sarah Palin-impersonating days, and she is of course an Emmy favorite, thanks to "30 Rock." She hosted an okay episode of "SNL," and she's nominated again kind of for the same reason Louis CK got nominated for hosting "SNL." She's least likely to win of all the nominees. McCarthy stands a much better chance, since she has a much stronger episode than Fey. However, many of her characters seem repetitive and capitalize on her ability to play crazy goofballs (which is fine, but doesn't really help with the range Emmy voters look for). Still, McCarthy should've won this award for her last hosting effort, so voters could give it to her for that alone. Plus, there's just no denying she's funny. Finally, we have the dark horse of the race, Joan Cusack. Cusack was the only "Shameless" nominee in the show's run before it moved to the comedy races, and she made the move from Drama Guest Actress to Comedy Guest Actress seamlessly. This especially helps Cusack because her character definitely provides more of the comedic elements of "Shameless" with her neurotic habits and over-the-top ideas. She's crazy, but shows emotion and elicits empathy, a perfect Emmy combo. She's never won, so she's overdue and the category switch might be the thing that snatches the Emmy for her. Like I said, this is a crazy race and almost any of these ladies could win.

Best Writing for a Comedy Series

1. “So Did the Fat Lady” for Louie

2. “I Wasn’t Ready” for Orange Is the New Black

3. “Special Relationship” for Veep

4. “Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficency” for Silicon Valley

5. “Episode 305” for Episodes

With no clear frontrunner, this race could be anyone's. Right now, it looks to be a race between the category veteran and the hot newcomer. "Louie" didn't have a very loud season, but one episode that did make waves was "So Did the Fat Lady," a brutally honest portrayal of weight discrimination in the dating world. That most of this comes from a woman rather than Louie himself is pretty impressive, and an episode-ending eight minute monologue that puts it all out there is compelling stuff. It's a tough subject, but Louis CK is the guy to make it work. On the flip side, "OITNB" is nominated for its pilot episode, which serves as a great introduction to the series and gets viewers interested in the show from the start. The writing categories have been good to pilots, but not as nice as the directing categories. Still, if "OITNB" love is loud, it can prevail here. "Veep" garnered its first nomination in the writing races this year, and with that as its strongest tool minus Julia Louis-Dreyfus, it could easily take a win here. However, the episode submitted is definitely not their strongest episode of the year. If an episode like "The Choice," "Alicia," "Debate," or "Crate" had been submitted and nominated, this might be a whole different race. However, "Special Relationship" is a great episode, but not "Veep"'s strongest. On the reverse, "Silicon Valley" did submit its strongest episode in addition to the weaker pilot, but the writers rightly nominated the better episode. Still, better in "Silicon Valley" terms doesn't mean a lot, so unless the show has a lot of surprise adoration, it probably can't win here. Finally, "Episodes" returns for its third nomination in the writing races as a  show flying under the radar. Personally, I don't get the buzz about the show, but it might be considered the most overdue show in the race and surprise with a win, but I don't think it's strong enough to claim a victory.

Best Directing for a Comedy Series

1. “Las Vegas” for Modern Family

2. “Lesbian Request Denied” for Orange Is the New Black

3. “Elevator (Part 6)” for Louie

4. “100” for Glee

5. “Minimum Viable Product” for Silicon Valley

6. “Episode 309” for Episodes

For a category that has rewarded so many pilot episodes over the past few years (7 of the past 14 victories), there is only one pilot nominated here, but two new series. "Silicon Valley" is nominated for its first episode, although that isn't very unforgivable because the directing in the first episode isn't any better than the directing in another episode. However, it is interesting to note that "OITNB" did not get nominated for it's pilot episode, but rather the third episode of the season, which was directed by Jodie Foster, who is kind of famous, ya know? Of the two new series, "OITNB" is the likelier to win with a bigger name in its director, more love for the show, plus it is a bit showier with flashbacks and merging shots. However, it'll have to trump the three-time defending champion in this race, "Modern Family." This year, the show is nominated for "Las Vegas," directed by last year's champion, Gail Mancuso. I think this episode is more flashy than her win last year, so she can easily win this award. The last ten minutes of the episode are manic with many cuts and merging storylines, but it is handled expertly so it doesn't get confusing for the audience. This is a "Modern Family" win I would definitely support. "Louie" grabs another nomination, but without having seen the episode yet, I can't judge too much. Paris Barclay is the President of the Directors Guild of America, so there is probably some pressure to nominate him when he is eligible, which probably explains why he's grabbed a second consecutive nomination for "Glee," a show the Emmys have moved on from. Still, his stature in the community and the fact that it's probably one of the few standout episodes of this season means he could snatch a victory. Finally, it's the same old with "Episodes," although this is their first directing nomination. Is support spreading for this show that seemingly no one watches? Could that boost a victory? Eh...probably not.

"State of the Race" (Emmys): July 22nd

Love 'em or hate 'em, this year's Emmy nominations have arrived, and the race can really begin! Now that we've got all six (or five) nominees in each race, it's really time to analyze this year's big races. In today's edition, I'll be talking about the major comedy races, and I'll return later this week to look at the minor comedy categories, so let's get started.


Best Comedy Series

1. Orange Is the New Black

2. Veep

3. Modern Family

4. The Big Bang Theory

5. Louie

6. Silicon Valley

This is going to be a big race, ladies and gentlemen. While the buzz was on the side of "Modern Family" and "Veep" pre-nominations, things have changed now as "Orange Is the New Black" takes my #1 spot. It has the most nominations of any comedy series this year (12 total), and definitely overperformed in major categories, getting five actresses nominated across three categories, as well as crucial writing and directing nominations. The buzz is certainly on the show's side; the second season premiered as voting was beginning, which probably had a big impact (Netflix isn't stupid, you guys), so "OITNB" is getting a lot of buzz at the moment. It's very similar to when "Breaking Bad" aired its final season during the late summer (aka Emmy season), which increased its buzz and definitely played a factor into the show's win for its penultimate season. Something very similar could happen here, but "OITNB" has strong competitors. "Veep" had a big bump in nominations this year, including a new acting nomination to join its three from last year, and its first writing nomination. "Veep" definitely has the critical adoration and is honestly just plain funny, whereas "OITNB" is a bit dramatic with more of a focus on storytelling. They aren't similar shows by any means, but they're fierce competitors for the title. But this is no two-horse race; "Modern Family" is the defending champion here and is actually coming off of a great season (general consensus is that the show earned its win in seasons one and two, but not so much the past two years). There's definitely "Modern Family" fatigue as evidenced by only half of the adult ensemble garnering nominations for the first time in the show's run. A win here would be five for "Modern Family," tying the record with "Fraiser" for most wins for a comedy series. Is it deserving of such a title? Could new, younger, and much buzzier shows like "OITNB" or "Veep" take the title away? I think the race is definitely down to these three shows. The others are still in the race, but their odds aren't as great. "The Big Bang Theory" is the highest-rated scripted show on television and is coming off a great season, and many people think it could pull off a win in the vein of "Friends" winning the award in its eighth season, which I thought might've been true before "OITNB" entered the comedy races and "Modern Family" had a strong season. "TBBT" is a broad hit, an ensemble piece that the Emmys could embrace, but there is stronger competition that'll hold it down. "Louie" was in the conversation for a win last year, but buzz has died down this year, and I don't see the show winning here (which is generally how I've always felt about "Louie"). Finally, "Silicon Valley" should be happy with the nomination because they'll have to submit six episodes for their reel (basically, their whole season minus two episodes), and they just don't have six killer episodes. They really only have one great episode (that'd be their season finale), but maybe that's an indication that this is a show to watch out for...next year.


Best Comedy Actor

1. Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory

2. Louis CK – Louie

3. William H. Macy – Shameless

4. Ricky Gervais – Derek

5. Matt LeBlanc – Episodes

6. Don Cheadle – House of Lies

Here's the thing -- Jim Parsons could so easily win a fourth Emmy given this competition, but will they give him that honor for a fourth time? That question will define the race, since behind Parsons, no one really stands out in a unique way, kind of making this an unpredictable race, and one that could result in a surprising (maybe even undeserving) winner. Louis CK is a perennial nominee here, but I've said this since the beginning -- he's not the kind of guy to win an Emmy for acting, but rather directing or writing (as has been the case in years past). That could potentially change in a weak year like this, but then again, Louie's buzz isn't as strong as it has been in previous years. William H. Macy is a big question mark because while he is turning in a fantastic performance on "Shameless," it is primarily dramatic. This is where we'll see how "Shameless" converting from drama to comedy affects its chances of winning awards. Macy could easily be seen as giving the best performance in this category, regardless of genre, but since it's a comedy category, are voters likely to go for a dramatic performance in a comedic category? Ricky Gervais, one of the big surprises of nomination day, is another question mark as he's an Emmy favorite and previous winner, but no one knows his show at all. His nomination is purely name-checking, but if voters love Gervais, he could surprise anyway. Matt LeBlanc's nomination is groan-inducing, but it's worth noting that "Episodes" also garnered writing and directing nominations, so voters are paying attention to the show. He's on his third nomination now, so voters might think it's time to give him the hardware. The same might not be said of Don Cheadle, whose show doesn't get love anywhere else, so he's probably not a real contender. This might be an interesting race, and episode submissions for key contenders are going to make a real impact here.


Best Comedy Actress

1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep

2. Amy Poehler – Parks and Recreation

3. Taylor Schilling – Orange Is the New Black

4. Lena Dunham – Girls

5. Melissa McCarthy – Mike and Moly

6. Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie

This race looks like it should easily go to Julia Louis-Dreyfus. Let's look at why that is: she's Julia Louis-Dreyfus....that's it. Kidding! But really, this is JLD's Emmy to lose. Yes, she's already won twice for "Veep", but she's that good and she's only getting better. In addition, "Veep" is now more popular with Emmy voters than in its previous two seasons, and there aren't many contenders in this race that are really hot on her heels. Yes, she lost to Amy Poehler at the Golden Globes but 1) it's the Golden Globes and 2) remember who hosted that show? Exactly. That said, Poehler is so overdue for an Emmy for "Parks and Recreation" (I personally thought she should've won the year JLD got her first victory for "Veep"), so that could work in her favor, but she didn't have an absolutely unstoppable season. Taylor Schilling is the lead on "OITNB," technically, although it is certainly more of an ensemble show. Schilling is still one of the more recognizable names on the show, but the question here is whether her more dramatic performance can garner a trophy for Best Actress in a Comedy Series. If voters embrace that nuanced performance and "OITNB" in general, she's a threat. Lena Dunham also has not won an Emmy, which is kind of surprising, and with strong competition like this, her odds aren't getting better. Still, she was easily one of the best parts of this season of "Girls," and voters looking to reward the show after it was snubbed for Best Comedy Series and writing/directing races could vote for her here. Melissa McCarthy, a previous winner here, is back after being snubbed last year, which is a bit of a head scratcher, but I don't think her presence will make much of a difference. Yes, "Mike and Molly" revamped itself this year to cater to the brass humor McCarthy is well known for now, but I think she's likelier to win for her guest hosting stint on "Saturday Night Live." Finally, Edie Falco's show has not had a lot of buzz this year (the most I've heard relating to "Nurse Jackie" is Meritt Wever's infamous upset last year), so until I see her episode, I don't see her anywhere close to the trophy.


Best Comedy Supporting Actor

1. Tony Hale – Veep

2. Andre Braugher – Brooklyn Nine-Nine

3. Jesse Tyler Ferguson – Modern Family

4. Ty Burrell – Modern Family

5. Adam Driver – Girls

6. Fred Armisen - Portlandia

Tony Hale, as the previous winner, has the upper hand, especially in a field deprived of "Modern Family" saturation. As I said above, "Veep" is more popular than ever and audiences love his character, Gary. The tapes of his other contenders could knock him out of the top spot, but for now, I'm keeping him there. Additionally, I have Andre Braugher second in a move that has nothing to do with tapes, but more that he is Andre Braugher and the Emmys love him. They were willing to snub his show in Best Comedy Series and his funnier co-star Andy Samberg in Best Actor, but they went for the much more subtle character Braugher plays, so they just love the guy. If he has a good tape, that could make all the difference. Jesse Tyler Ferguson had a great season on "Modern Family" this year, including a very juicy end-of-season arc leading up to his wedding and a falling out with his disapproving father. In addition, of the nominated "MF" actors, he's the only one that has not won an Emmy for the show yet. If Emmy voters still want to reward "Modern Family," this is the place to do it. Still, Ferguson's co-star Ty Burrell still brings the funny and is the show's most iconic character, and in a year with no certain frontrunner, the Emmys could go back to him for his still-solid performance. Adam Driver is the standout of season three of "Girls," so I was glad to see him nominated here again. He actually had a story this year, but the character of Adam is polarizing and not laugh-out-loud funny, and his strongest moments are dramatic. There are no contenders like that in this race, which might work in Driver's favor, but it'd take a lot for him to win this award. Finally, I have Fred Armisen in last place because I don't know what to expect from Emmy voters. This nomination came out of absolutely nowhere and I can't say if it's deserved or if it can win an Emmy. We'll have to watch the tape for him to see if he can rank higher...


Best Comedy Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney – Mom

2. Kate Mulgrew – Orange Is the New Black

3. Mayim Bialik – The Big Bang Theory

4. Julie Bowen – Modern Family

5. Anna Chlumsky – Veep

6. Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live

The key in this race was watching to make sure Allison Janney and Kate Mulgrew got their nominations. Now, it gets interesting. A lot of people think Janney will win this in a cakewalk, and it's surely possible. She is downright hysterical on "Mom," and Emmy voters adore her, so her scene-stealing performance is worthy of an Emmy, no doubt. However, on a different but parallel note, Mulgrew's performance has range that Janney lacks. Mulgrew is funny, sympathetic, conniving, cold...all in all, it's got everything, and range wins Emmys. With the right balance of laughs and drama, Mulgrew is a very worthy competitor to Janney. It's really going to be a matter of which type of performance voters appreciate this year. Then there are the other competitors...Bialik is back for a third nomination, so she might be seen as overdue, and if voters cannot choose between Janney and Mulgrew, Bialik might be a happy medium, as her character brings the funny, but is very sympathetic. Bowen is kind of old news in this category, I think, and she's won this category twice. In addition, she had so little to do this season so it might be telling that voters still nominated her and snubbed her co-star when she really had minimal story this year. Speaking of minimal story, Anna Chlumsky has been playing second fiddle to Julia Louis-Dreyfus and even some other supporting actors, but she plays the straight man, which is difficult and requires delicate balance on a show like "Veep." However, she just wasn't a huge presence to challenge for the win. When you think about the highlights of this season, Chlumsky doesn't appear to be among the best parts of this season, but weirder things have happened. Finally, much like Fred Armisen, Kate McKinnon was a surprise nominee and I don't know how the Emmys will embrace her. Yes, other "SNL" ladies have been nominated here, but they were much bigger, established stars in Kristen Wiig and Amy Poehler. McKinnon is only coming off her second season, but she is the best part of the "SNL" ensemble. Still, she has potential to be nominated here for years to come if she maintains her status, but for now, voters might be content with her nomination.

Emmy Nominations Reaction and Analysis

It's finally here, TV fans! This morning, the nominations for the 2014 Primetime Emmy Awards were announced. It's Christmas morning for folks like me, and in the hours to come after the nominations are announced, expect plenty of debate, celebration, anger, and cheer.

My initial reaction this morning is extremely mixed, but mostly anger. Why you ask? THE SNUBS. Oh, they are egregious this year. Let's break it down race by race, shall we?

Best Comedy Series
The Big Bang Theory, Louie, Modern Family, Orange Is the New Black, Silicon Valley, Veep

From my predictions, I got #1-5 and #8. Who was #8 on my list? That'd be "Silicon Valley" who continued HBO's trend of getting in freshman series with limited runs and an outside shot at the nomination. The problem with "SV," though? It's not that good. Considering the shows it beat for the nomination, "SV" should be very happy with their placement here, because it was able to leap over a hotter freshman show "Brooklyn Nine-Nine" and the Emmys' previous "hip" show, "Girls," not to mention other (and worthier) contenders like "Parks and Recreation" and "Shameless." I watched the whole season of "Silicon Valley," and it's an okay show. It had its funny moments, but the only truly great episode I saw was the finale. It's not an outrageous nomination, but I just think any of the four shows I previously mentioned would've been better suited here.

Best Drama Series
Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, House of Cards, Mad Men, True Detective

If the 2014 Emmys are remembered for anything, it will be for this, above all else: THEY SNUBBED THE GOOD WIFE FOR WHAT IS THE BEST SEASON OF TELEVISION LITERALLY EVER. Now that I've properly conveyed my anger, let's talk about this in a professional (or as close to professional) manner. The expected nominees are here. From my list, that's #1-4 and #6, but then #10, the awards-show-boner-shriveling drivel known as "Downton Abbey." This is just a show I do not like and I cannot get into, and the fact that it repeatedly receives an outrageous number of Emmy nominations has bothered me for years. This year, I was confident the Emmys would drop the show because I haven't heard zip about it this year, but alas, a show that no one cares about beats the most buzzed-about and critically-acclaimed season of a broadcast network television show in ages for the Emmy nomination. This is the greatest disappointment of the morning for me. I'd almost have accepted if "Masters of Sex" or another worthy contender had swooped in for "The Good Wife" spot, but alas...

Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Louis CK for Louie, Ricky Gervais for Derek, Matt LeBlanc for Episodes, Don Cheadle for House of Lies, Jim Parsons for The Big Bang Theory, William H. Macy for Shameless

If I could abolish one category at this year's Emmys, it would be this one. It's not even close to a "Sophie's choice" for me. Let's talk about the three nominees that make my blood curl before we move to the redeeming factors, though. It appears Don Cheadle and Matt LeBlanc have been nominated once again for doing nothing. Does anyone even watch "Episodes" or "House of Lies"? This is name-checking at its absolute worst, and while we're on that topic, let's talk about Ricky Gervais being nominated for a show no one's ever seen. Why does Hollywood have an obsession with this guy?! Let's talk about who was snubbed as a result: Robin Williams, Johnny Galecki, and (a big shocker here) Andy Samberg. But there are actually talented actors here, so let's discuss those before I dwell on the fact that Cheadle and LeBlanc have been nominated for these shows three times now. Louis CK, whose show I will admit I do not watch, is at least a talented actor/writer/director/producer and the episodes I have seen of "Louie" are funny. Fine, acceptable, job well done. Jim Parsons surfaces here once again, but that's fine by me. Unlike some, I'm no Sheldon hater, and while I think the show has grown past a period in time where Sheldon was the best part about it, he still deserves to be here. But finally, in a category I loathe, we come to one of my favorite nominees of the day: William H. Macy!!! Now, is it total name-checking? Probably (and you'll see why down below), but I simply don't care for this nomination because Macy deserves it and (on a larger scale) the show deserves it. This one made me pump my fist in the air. Job well done, sir! Now how about an Emmy win? With this weak competition, it's certainly possible. For the record, my predictions here went #1-2, #4-5, #8 and unranked (...Gervais...).

Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Lena Dunham for Girls, Melissa McCarthy for Mike and Molly, Edie Falco for Nurse Jackie, Taylor Schilling for Orange Is the New Black, Amy Poehler for Parks and Recreation, Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Veep

Sigh...this category has such potential sometimes, but we can seemingly never reach a perfect lineup. Although this one is definitely miles above its male counterpart, there are still some snubs that hurt and some nominees that make you go "huh?" The highlights: Dunham, Schilling, Poehler and Louis-Dreyfus, who undoubtedly deserve to be here, haters be damned. All deserved and expected nominees so congrats, ladies. The remaining two? Well, Melissa McCarthy is a previous winner here, but her snub last year seemed to be a sign that the Emmys were over here, which apparently they were not. It's not the worst nomination in the world. I like Melissa McCarthy and I do know that this season of "Mike and Molly" was changed to cater to her now-famous raunchy attitude, so maybe voters took notice and wanted her back. Fine. Okay. Edie Falco is just going to be a lifetime nominee, and yes, I know, I predicted her, but I thought the Emmys might take a chance and be bold. It's not the worst thing to happen in Emmy history, it just means that we get some notable snubs. Mindy Kaling, bless her little heart, seemed like a good bet for a nomination when it was revealed she'd be announcing them. Yeah, the announcement of her lack of nomination while she's on screen is heartbreaking. At least she had a good poker face (or maybe not, I wasn't really looking, too busy cradling my head in my hands). Two other big snubs: Anna Faris, who I had in my top six for a long time but took out in favor of Kaling, but still would've been very deserving (it appears she's stuck behind the spotlight of her co-star, which we'll discuss below) and Emmy Rossum, whose show got some love in the form of a first-time nomination for co-star William H. Macy, but it just shows voters aren't really watching "Shameless" if they nominate him and not the superior and masterful Rossum. What does she have to do to get a nomination? Because I can't think of anything she hasn't already done on that show. I prepared myself for such a snub, though, so I'll silently accept this lineup of six, of which I predicted #1-5 and #9.

Best Actor in a Drama Series
Bryan Cranston for Breaking Bad, Kevin Spacey for House of Cards, Jon Hamm for Mad Men, Jeff Daniels for The Newsroom, Woody Harrelson for True Detective, Matthew McConaughey for True Detective

Quite frankly, I really only have one big qualm with this race, and I'm coming close to acceptance. Cranston, Spacey, Hamm, Harrelson and McConaughey are no brainers. They undoubtedly deserve to be here, and they're expected nominees. Cheers, friends! But the last nominee, who is actually the defending champ, just made me shake my head when I heard his name called. Why, Jeff Daniels?! Yes, he won last year, but I was not expecting another nomination because no one cares about his show anymore and there are hotter, stronger contenders like James Spader for "The Blacklist," Michael Sheen for "Masters of Sex," and Matthew Rhys for "The Americans." But again, this isn't mortal sin (and not to beat a dead horse, but mortal sin in my book is "The Good Wife" snub). It's not like Daniels has a shot against this competition anyway. Game on, fellas. Here, I predicted #1-5 and #9.

Best Actress in a Drama Series
Michelle Dockery for Downton Abbey, Claire Danes for Homeland, Robin Wright for House of Cards, Lizzy Caplan for Masters of Sex, Kerry Washington for Scandal, Julianna Margulies for The Good Wife

The most competitive, exciting, thrilling race leading up to today...and the Emmys manage to completely mess it up. Michelle Dockery?!?! WHAT?! But first, a big congrats to the other ladies. Danes, whose show was given the cold shoulder, deservedly shows up here. Wright, certainly a highlight of "House of Cards" season two, is a heavyweight for the win. Caplan is a huge surprise, but so well deserved as she was a revelation and outshone her male co-star (and her nomination over Sheen is proof of that). Washington is still a powerhouse for "Scandal," and it's still great to see her in this lineup. And taking some (SOME) of the sting away from "The Good Wife" series snub is seeing Margulies re-enter this race after being inexplicably dropped last year. But let's get back to the lady whose name is on everyone's tongue: Dockery. Why? Really? Just why? Let's name some of the ladies who missed out because of this nomination: Vera Farmiga for "Bates Motel," Elisabeth Moss for "Mad Men," Keri Russell for "The Americans," and above all else, Tatiana Maslany for "Orphan Black," shunned once again for one of television's defining performances. Instead, we get some dowdy, boring performance on a show I've already expressed my distasted for while innovative, exciting, shocking work is getting snubbed. We could've really used a seventh nominee this year, but now the question is which lady will stand out for the win? In my predictions, I went #1-4, #8 and #10.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Andre Braugher for Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Adam Driver for Girls, Ty Burrell for Modern Family, Jesse Tyler Ferguson for Modern Family, Tony Hale for Veep, Fred Armisen for Portlandia

ALMOST the best category of the day until...wait...am I misreading this...no...Fred Armisen?!?! Are you kidding me, Emmys?! Now, I've never been the biggest Fred Armisen fan, and it's not like "Portlandia" is Emmy bait, but how in the hell does he get nominated? This is absolutely one of the biggest WTF nominees of the year. I'm really not sure how it happened, or why, or...I'm just really at a loss for words. The notable news here, Armisen aside, is that Eric Stonestreet did not return to the race after a snub last year, and now his co-star Ed O'Neill is snubbed alongside. Only Burrell and Ferguson represent "Modern Family" this year, and for the first time since the show started, "MF" does not hold the majority of the nominations in this category. "Modern Family" dominance is over! What does this mean for the race for Best Comedy Series? How exciting! Luckily, too, they picked the best actors on the show to represent "MF," and part of me might even be rooting for Ferguson. Then again, we've got three other worthy contenders: Braugher, who despite "Brooklyn Nine-Nine" getting snubbed for Best Comedy Series and Best Actor for Andy Samberg, could get support here; Driver, easily the best part of this past season of "Girls" and an extremely talented and multi-dimensional actor; and Hale, the defending champ and highlight of "Veep." For predictions, I went #1-4, #6 and the unpredicted Armisen (just...huh?!).

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Julie Bowen for Modern Family, Allison Janney for Mom, Kate Mulgrew for Orange Is the New Black, Kate McKinnon for Saturday Night Live, Mayim Bialik for The Big Bang Theory, Anna Chlumsky for Veep

Almost as close to a perfect category as we're gonna get and I didn't even go 6-for-6 here. The surprise nominee here is welcome and oh-so-deserving: Kate McKinnon! The rock star of "Saturday Night Live" gets a surprise nomination here, and we finally know no to never ever underestimate the "SNL" cast, who've had a cast member grab a nomination in one of the supporting comedy categories since 2009, when "SNL" cast members became eligible in these categories. Anyone who watches "SNL" nowadays (and yes, it can sometimes be a burden) knows that McKinnon is indisputably the funniest cast member and this surprise nomination is welcome. Who did it come at the expense of, though? That'd probably be Sofia Vergara, who is dropped for the first time ever for "Modern Family," once again hinting at the likelihood that the tides have turned against this show. A deserved snub? Maybe. But if it makes room for exciting new nominees, I'm all in. Also to note: last year's shocking winner, Meritt Wever, was snubbed, just as I'd suspected. One and done for you, ma'am. Bowen, Bialik, and Chlumsky return again, deservedly, while two freshman shows gain expected nominees in Janney (who is still the frontrunner for the win) and Mulgrew (reppin' "OITNB"). In predictions, I went #1-3, #5-6, and an unpredicted (but I'll take it!).

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Aaron Paul for Breaking Bad, Jim Carter for Downton Abbey, Peter Dinklage for Game of Thrones, Mandy Patinkin for Homeland, Jon Voight for Ray Donovan, Josh Charles for The Good Wife

Here's one category I wasn't looking forward to...I'd said before that this would be a category to contain a whopper WTF nominee, but somehow, all six were in my top ten, even if two of them were outside my top six. That would be Voight (who I'd predicted wouldn't get in because voters wouldn't embrace his show, and they seemingly didn't because he is the show's only nomination) and Carter (because "Downton Abbey" + Emmys = BARF). I ranked them at #7 and #10. #1-2 and #4-5 are here, though. Left out in the cold? That'd be Dean Norris, who deserved a nomination for his brave change of character in the final season of "Breaking Bad," and Charles Dance, who I thought might ride the coattails of "Game of Thrones" love to end up here. But nada for them. Paul does represent "BB" and could win. He'll wanna watch out for Dinklage, who is a serious threat. Patinkin joins his co-star Claire Danes as they weather the Emmys severe diss of "Homeland" season three. And although I predicted it, I'm still over the moon about the nomination for Charles. Can he be the dark horse in this race? It would be so well deserved. We've got months to analyze...

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Anna Gunn for Breaking Bad, Maggie Smith for Downton Abbey, Joanne Froggatt for Downton Abbey, Lena Headey for Game of Thrones, Christina Hendricks for Mad Men, Christine Baranski for The Good Wife

Bleh. Two "Downton Abbey" ladies? Well, Smith was expected, but Froggatt jumps back in the race, although we should take note because she apparently has a big, baity arc this season. I just would hate to see "Downton Abbey" win this race, though. So who can stop them? We've got one new nominee this year in Headey, who replaces her "GoT" co-star Emilia Clarke. That's fine by me, because Clarke didn't do a whole lot of anything this season, but if you're gonna nominate a "GoT" lady for this season, it should've been Maisie Williams or Sophie Turner. Oh well, Headey does a great job in the small doses she was given this season. Hendricks is back, and at this point, she isn't leaving until "Mad Men" is over. Baranski continues her perfect streak of nominations, and I'd be happy to see her finally win, if it means "The Good Wife" wins something this season. But most likely, the win will go to (and deservedly so) Gunn. In predictions, I went #1-4, #10, and an unlisted (Headey). Missing out from my nominations was Michelle Monahan, who didn't ride the "True Detective" train of love, and Bellamy Young from "Scandal," who is never gonna get nominated at this point.

Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
Nathan Lane for Modern Family, Steve Buscemi for Portlandia, Jimmy Fallon for Saturday Night Live, Louis CK for Saturday Night Live, Bob Newhart for The Big Bang Theory, Gary Cole for Veep

So I did not include these predictions on the blog, but as a member of GoldDerby, I did predict these in their nominations race over there. I went 3-for-6, predicting Lane, Fallon and Newhart. Lane had a great few episodes on "Modern Family" this season as he went into wedding planner mode, and it was the first time I really enjoyed his character on the show. Fallon's episode of "SNL" was great, and he's the early frontrunner to win. But beware Newhart, who is the reigning champ and whom I enjoyed more in his appearance this season than last. In my predictions, I'd listed James Earl Jones for "The Big Bang Theory" (surprised he wasn't name-checked), Brad Garrett for "The Crazy Ones" (Emmys love him, but they couldn't have cared less about this show), and Pablo Schrieber for "Orange Is the New Black" (Pornstache couldn't ride the wave of love for "OTINB"). Instead, we get Buscemi, which, I mean...okay....Louis CK, who probably would've been a good pick, but I just didn't enjoy his episode of "SNL" this year, and Cole, who really isn't a guest on "Veep," but it's still a fun pick. Although he's not my favorite cast member, his billing works in his favor here. Overall, a pretty good category, with Fallon in the lead.

Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
Natasha Lyonne for Orange Is the New Black, Uzo Aduba for Orange Is the New Black, Laverne Cox for Orange Is the New Black, Tina Fey for Saturday Night Live, Melissa McCarthy for Saturday Night Live, Joan Cusack for Shameless

Best. Category. Ever. "OITNB" dominance! Wow! I was expecting Aduba to get in, but look at Cox and Lyonne joining her! It's bittersweet, though, because another standout from "OITNB" that should've snuck in is Taryn Manning, but I guess having three ladies recognized is better than none. Cox definitely had an outside shot, but Lyonne is pretty unexpected, although she's a riot on the show. We follow this up with two "SNL" hosts: Fey was one of the better hosts this season (although the highlight was really her "Girls" promo where she played Blerta the Albanian refugee), but McCarthy's episode was a little disappointing (but maybe because I hold her first "SNL" episode, for which she was nominated last year, to such a high standard). Finally, the category rounds out with Cusack, who keeps her nomination for a fourth year in a row despite her show switching from drama to comedy. She's a dark horse for a win here since she's definitely more comedic. But Fey and Aduba could also win. This is a great category. And for those playing at home, I only predicted 3 out of 6, but I'm content to be wrong in this scenario.

Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Paul Giamatti for Downton Abbey, Reg E. Cathy for House of Cards, Robert Morse for Mad Men, Beau Bridges for Masters of Sex, Joe Morton for Scandal, Dylan Baker for The Good Wife

Interesting category. I once again went 3 for 6. I predicted Morse (who apparently has a good submission episode), Bridges (who is certainly a threat for the win with a baity storyline), and Morton (whose role is Emmy bait in monologue form). Giamatti isn't surprising given the "Downton Abbey" love, although this is their first nominated guest star. Cathy is a big surprise, but what a great one. Go Freddy!!! Maybe I'm still bitter about Corey Stoll's snub last year, but Cathy is a good nominee. And finally, Baker is a great nominee. I loved his episode this season, and while I was expecting another "TGW" guest star to be nominated instead (Nathan Lane), I'm happy we got at least one. I think Morton, Bridges and Morse are the frontrunners, but this could be a total crapshoot. After all, last year's winner (Dan Bucatinsky from Scandal) is missing despite a baitier storyline, and we're also missing a well talked about guest star in Pedro Pascal from "Game of Thrones." Anything could happen here.

Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series
Diana Rigg for Game of Thrones, Kate Mara for House of Cards, Allison Janney for Masters of Sex, Kate Burton for Scandal, Margo Martindale for The Americans, Jane Fonda for The Newsroom

When the Emmys love something (or someone), they refuse to let go. That's the lesson learned in this category. Rigg, Martindale, and Fonda are back for nominations in the same roles this year, although whether they deserve to be back is your call (the only one I watch is "GoT" and Rigg did next to nothing this season). I've also heard Martindale wasn't as impressive this go around as last year, but I haven't heard about Fonda yet. And while we're on the track of "things Emmy voters love," this category sees Janney's second nomination of the year, and really, she's so good in both performances that she could be a double winner. Burton gets a well-deserved nom for "Scandal" after a huge season, surpassing another guest star who was better favored, Lisa Kudrow. Burton is a previous Emmy nominee for "Grey's Anatomy," but she didn't win...can that change this time around? One last competitor, and this one is just...intriguing...is Mara, who couldn't get a Supporting Actress nom last year, but her one episode this season apparently sealed the deal for voters. I still think this is Janney's to win, but the guest categories are literally the weirdest so it could be anyone. Also, I went 3 for 6 here (and in all guest categories), predicting Kudrow, last year's winner Carrie Preston for "The Good Wife" (sad face), and Julianne Nicholson for "Masters of Sex."

"State of the Race" FINAL Emmy Predictions

Hello everyone! In just a few days, the months of prognosticating will be over and the nominations for the 2014 Emmy Awards will be announced. While nominations aren't announced until Thursday, this Monday is my final "State of the Race" post...pre-nominations at least. So without any further ado, let's start.

Best Drama Series

1. Breaking Bad

2. True Detective

3. Game of Thrones

4. House of Cards

5. The Good Wife

6. Mad Men

----------

7. Masters of Sex

8. The Americans

9. Homeland

10. Downton Abbey

This order really hasn't changed much in the past couple of weeks, but it's certainly still a race to keep your eyes on. I'm extremely confident that the top four will be nominated here. The Good Wife has certainly earned its spot, in addition to a lot of buzz and being the likeliest network drama nominated, so I think it'll get in, but I'm not as sure of its chances as the series above it. If TGW is snubbed here, or really just anywhere across the board, I will be so upset and angry. Mad Men will probably also take the last slot because, as I've stated before, it's a show that at this point in its run will likely be nominated through to the very end, even if it never wins again. Masters of Sex is the spoiler in this race because the Emmys could very well embrace it as their shiny new series that gets love in multiple categories (although that title might already belong to True Detective). The Americans has quality (so I've been told), but no buzz, while Homeland and Downton Abbey are here because of their previous nominations. I think if either of those last two shows gets a nomination before the ones above it, there is going to be chaos tomorrow. But this is my predicted final line-up.


Best Comedy Series

1. Modern Family

2. Veep

3. The Big Bang Theory

4. Orange Is the New Black

5. Louie

6. Brooklyn Nine-Nine

----------

7. Girls

8. Silicon Valley

9. Parks and Recreation

10. Shameless

Again, no changes here. This race is definitely down to the top seven contenders, and I have a gut feeling that this could be a race that ends up with seven nominees, per the new 2% rule I explained a few weeks back. I just think Brooklyn Nine-Nine and Girls are so interchangeable for the last spot that voting could be close enough to include both. Modern Family, Veep, and The Big Bang Theory are fine for nominations. Orange Is the New Black and Louie are both probably in as well, although it would be heartbreaking to see OITNB miss out, which would really be because voters don't see it as a comedy but rather a drama. Speaking of genre jumping, Shameless is ranked #10, but it could make a splash if comedy voters embrace it in a way the drama side did not. Anything is possible. Silicon Valley most likely won't get the nomination, and I don't think it would be deserved if so, and Parks and Recreation is a solid veteran but is most likely past its Emmys heyday.


Best Drama Actor

1. Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad

2. Matthew McConaughey - True Detective

3. Kevin Spacey – House of Cards

4. Jon Hamm - Mad Men

5. Woody Harrelson - True Detective

6. James Spader - The Blacklist

----------

7. Michael Sheen - Masters of Sex

8. Matthew Rhys – The Americans

9. Jeff Daniels - The Newsroom

10. Damian Lewis – Homeland

Cranston, McConaughey and Spacey are guaranteed nominees. Hamm's show is losing buzz, but he'll still get nominated although its less of a guarantee than in the past. I moved Harrelson up one spot and Spader down, but mostly because Spader's show is not likely to get any other major nominations, as opposed to True Detective which I'm expecting will get plenty of love. He is James Spader, after all, so his odds are pretty great. This is another race where there could be seven nominees, because the performances in the #7 and #8 spots could definitely sneak in. I give the edge to Sheen, who'd have an easier time getting in for a new performance vs. Rhys, snubbed for his first season already. Daniels simply cannot compete with these performances, despite his win last year, and Lewis is a non-factor, to be honest.


Best Drama Actress

1. Robin Wright - House of Cards

2. Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife

3. Claire Danes – Homeland

4. Kerry Washington – Scandal

5. Elisabeth Moss – Mad Men

6. Vera Farmiga – Bates Motel

----------

7. Tatiana Maslany – Orphan Black

8. Lizzy Caplan – Masters of Sex

9. Keri Russell - The Americans

10. Michelle Dockery - Downton Abbey

This is, ladies and gentlemen, the race to watch. Seriously, there could be any combination of these ten ladies and I wouldn't be shocked, but I'd certainly be surprised at who was left off. I don't think anyone is a lock but the closest is Wright, who has good buzz for her performance and her show, and seems like the most likely nominee. Margulies was snubbed last year, which is his biggest battle to fight, but I think TGW buzz is so strong, she cannot be denied a nomination this year. I also believe last year's snub was truly because voters wanted to throw support behind other new nominees and just assumed Margulies would get in no matter what. They won't make the same mistake twice. No matter how you felt about Homeland's third season, there's no denying that the best part of the show is Claire Danes. Unless Homeland literally gets no nominations, which is highly unlikely, Danes will be here at least. Washington is still the new "It" girl and since this is the likeliest way to reward TV's buzziest drama, she's solidly in the mix. Moss will probably be here because this is Mad Men and blah blah blah...I'd love to be proven wrong though, especially if some of the ladies underneath her make it in. I made the decision to bump up Farmiga and slide Maslany down to #7, and that's really because Farmiga is just recognizable and a previous nominee, and despite the universal praise and Critics Choice wins and the overall chant of "You have to nominate her!," I'm not sold that the Emmys will wisen up and give Maslany the nomination. I would absolutely adore to be proven wrong, though. Even further down the list, Caplan has a great shot still for Masters of Sex, which I've already said could make a very big showing. Russell and Dockery are less likely, but definitely still possible, but in my opinion, the line-up will come out of the top eight. And at this point, they could nominate all 8 and I wouldn't get angry at them for going overboard. This category is that big this year.


Best Comedy Actor

1. Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory

2. Louis CK – Louie

3. Andy Samberg - Brooklyn Nine-Nine 

4. Don Cheadle - House of Lies 

5. Matt LeBlanc – Episodes 

6. Johnny Galecki – The Big Bang Theory 

----------

7. Robin Williams - The Crazy Ones 

8. William H. Macy – Shameless 

9. Thomas Middleditch – Silicon Valley 

10. Chris Messina – The Mindy Project

In comparison to the previous category, this one...well...sucks. This is a totally thrill-less race, which is why I'm expecting all of last year's eligible nominees to return (even though Cheadle and LeBlanc shouldn't be anywhere near here). That's also why I moved LeBlanc up a spot. Samberg is the new kid on the block and I'm expecting a nomination for him, even if Brooklyn Nine-Nine is snubbed for Best Comedy Series. I have Galecki in the sixth spot, but he really should be in here considering he was a previous nominee and the show is stronger than ever. In a race that is easily the weakest of the year, he should totally be in. But there are a bunch of wildcards here. Williams looked like an easy nominee in the beginning of the season, before The Crazy Ones didn't live up to some expectations (I really enjoyed it) and it was cancelled after one season. That's gonna be hard to get into even this race, but again, because of the weak category, never say never. I've already stated the Shameless situation, and Macy would be so deserving of a nomination, but I can't pull the trigger. Middleditch's show was disappointing, in my eyes, and the lack of buzz won't push him any higher than #9. Finally, Messina could get a surprise nomination, which wouldn't be a bad thing at all, but if The Mindy Project is getting recognized, it's likelier to be for its star or in the writing race.


Best Comedy Actress

1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep

2. Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation

3. Lena Dunham – Girls

4. Taylor Schilling - Orange Is The New Black

5. Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie

6. Mindy Kaling – The Mindy Project

----------

7. Anna Faris – Mom

8. Emmy Rossum – Shameless

9. Melissa McCarthy - Mike and Molly

10. Zooey Deschanel – New Girl

Here's another pretty good category. This list seems pretty solid for #1-5, and I would expect them all to make it in. Schilling and Falco are the most vulnerable, but seem like a safe bet. The last spot is a bit of a toss-up because I've had Faris there for a while, but just moved up Kaling. Kaling is announcing the nominees on Thursday with Carson Daly, and every year (almost), at least one of the announcers is nominated. Sure, it could be Carson Daly since he is a producer on The Voice which is guaranteed a Reality Series bid, not to mention Daly could be picked for Reality Show Host. However, I think Kaling could sneak into this race. Beyond the top competitors, the last spot is really up for grabs, and Kaling could definitely fit the bill. She writes, produces and stars in her show, much like Poehler and Dunham. The show gained some buzz although this is its only big opportunity to make a splash. Kaling herself is actually an Emmy nominee already as a writer and producer on The Office, so that works in her favor as well. It also helps that her closest competition is Faris, whose show is getting a lot of buzz for Allison Janney, but not as much for the lead actress. It's still certainly possible, and again, the 2% could strike, but it's going to be a tough race. I'll stick with Kaling, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Faris among the final lineup. Down the line, Deschanel and McCarthy have an outside shot as previous nominees, but their buzz needs to be bigger and both of their shows aren't as talked about anymore. The real wildcard is Rossum; with Shameless in the comedy race now, we'll see if Rossum can get some traction. Lord knows she deserves it. Again, because we don't have a proven track record, it's hard to say, but it would be a great nomination, especially given the stiff competition.

Best Drama Supporting Actor

1. Aaron Paul – Breaking Bad

2. Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones

3. Dean Norris – Breaking Bad

4. Josh Charles – The Good Wife

5. Mandy Patinkin – Homeland

6. Charles Dance – Game of Thrones

----------

7. Jon Voight – Ray Donovan

8. Jeff Perry – Scandal

9. Jeffrey Wright - Boardwalk Empire

10. Jim Carter - Downton Abbey

This category is a huge toss-up. Outside of the top 5, the last slot could literally could to anybody. Seriously. There are main competitors, but this is a category where we're bound to see one WTF nominee that no one is guessing. Many people have Voight in the top tier of their predictions, but I just don't see it happening. Ray Donovan has no buzz and while Voight is a big name, I don't see a nomination happening. I had Perry as my WTF choice a few weeks back, and I think he's still in the race, especially if Scandal gets a bump in the nominations this year. Wright got high marks for his performance this season, so that's possible but even with Bobby Cannavale's win last year, Boardwalk Empire seems like old news. Carter is a previous nominee, and he could show up and randomly take a spot here. But, at the moment, I'm giving it to Dance who constantly does great work on GoT and if the show is going to get a lot of love this year (entirely possible as it now claims the achievement of HBO's highest-rated show ever), he could benefit as a result. But he may not make it in, even alongside some of the fellas in the top tier. Patinkin's show is expected to suffer and he could join that. Charles has a lot of buzz, but if voters ignore TGW, he won't be back. I think the top three are pretty safe, but I'm expecting a nominee to come out of left field here on Thursday.


Best Drama Supporting Actress

1. Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad (=)

2. Christine Baranski - The Good Wife (=)

3. Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey (=)

4. Christina Hendricks - Mad Men (=)

5. Michelle Monahan – True Detective (+1)

6. Bellamy Young – Scandal (+1)

--------

7. Emilia Clarke – Game of Thrones (-2)

8. Monica Potter – Parenthood (=)

9. Archie Panjabi - The Good Wife (+1)

10. Joanne Froggatt – Downton Abbey (=)

I've made some final changes in this category that I think will indicate some actual change. The biggest change here is dropping Clarke out of the top tier and into the seventh slot. Even GoT fans know that Clarke didn't have a flashy, great season. She really didn't do anything this season, and unlike last year when she had big moments, we didn't get a lot of that. Emmy voters could just write her name down just because, but I'm hoping they won't so as to reward more deserving actresses. Who, you ask? Well after threatening to pull the trigger, I finally put Young in my top six. Her Critics Choice win sealed the deal for me, and I think she'll get into the race. Monahan also seems like a safe bet now, although I wouldn't be surprised if she were left off. Hendricks and Smith are safe, I think, but they could shock and get snub, which would be fine by me, especially in Smith's case. Baranski and Gunn should be fine. Outside the top seven, Potter is here because Emmy voters are sometimes late to the party and while Potter easily could've won this category last year, she might get a nomination this year, even if her story wasn't as great. Panjabi and Froggatt are past nominees, but I don't think the race is too open to worry about them.


Best Comedy Supporting Actor

1. Ty Burrell - Modern Family

2. Tony Hale – Veep

3. Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family

4. Andre Braugher – Brooklyn Nine-Nine

5. Eric Stonestreet – Modern Family

6. Adam Driver – Girls

----------

7. Ed O'Neill - Modern Family

8. Timothy Simons – Veep

9. Simon Helberg – The Big Bang Theory

10. Reid Scott – Veep

Again, a race of seven actors. Sure, Simons could get in if voters embrace Veep and want to nominate two Veep guys here. Helberg could've got a nomination last year, but this year seems less likely. Scott is here, but he doesn't really have a shot. It's really down to the Modern Family guys, Hale, Braugher and Driver. Burrell seems like the safest bet since his character is the highlight of the show. Hale is the reigning champ and voters will probably stick with him. Ferguson had a big year on MF, so I'm expecting him to get in. Braugher will likely break in based on buzz and Emmy praise for the actor. Stonestreet had a great story this year, and although he was snubbed last year, he should get in now. Driver was a surprise nominee last year, and he was even better this year, so I hope voters stick with him. Unfortunately, that's bad news for O'Neill, who I'd be okay with leaving off. Last year showed voters can snub one of these guys, so O'Neill might be that guy this season. I'd like to see the category open up to others outside of the MF actors.


Best Comedy Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney – Mom

2. Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory

3. Julie Bowen – Modern Family

4. Sofia Vergara - Modern Family

5. Anna Chlumsky – Veep

6. Kate Mulgrew - Orange Is The New Black

----------

7. Merritt Wever - Nurse Jackie

8. Haley Cuoco-Sweeting - The Big Bang Theory

9. Jane Lynch – Glee

10. Chelsea Peretti - Brooklyn Nine-Nine

Janney will ride her buzz to a surefire nomination, and Bialik, Bowen and Vergara are probably safe bets to get in. Chlumsky surprised with a nomination last year, and as the straight woman on Veep, she could hold onto that spot once again this season especially with buzz for Veep growing. Mulgrew is the one OITNB lady that people are expecting to get into this category, and since most of her buzzier co-stars are in the guest categories, I think Mulgrew can work on OITNB love for a spot here. Wever is the reigning winner, but I'm expecting her to get dropped after winning an Emmy no one was expecting. Cuoco-Sweeting could certainly ride the wave of love for TBBT, and Lynch did surprise with a comeback nomination last year, which could still extend this year. But probably not. Peretti would be a deserving nominee, but it may not be time to reward her yet since she's not too big and she has louder competition.

Check back on Thursday for Emmy nomination analysis and reactions! Plus, we can see how well I did...yikes!!! Until then, comment below with your thoughts on my final Emmy predictions. Did I get it right? Who am I missing? Will you be watching the nomination announcement live with me? Let me know below!

Evan