"State of the Race" is my column to give predictions on upcoming awards ceremonies. I will provide a ranked list of the nominees and commentary, and I will update once a week. With two months before Emmy nominations are announced, let's take a look at how the race is shaping up.
Best Drama Series
1. Breaking Bad
2. True Detective
3. House of Cards
4. Game of Thrones
5. The Good Wife
6. Mad Men
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7. Downton Abbey
8. Homeland
9. Masters of Sex
10. Scandal
This is a pretty tight race for the win -- for the nomination, it's a less severe story. The top four (Breaking Bad, True Detective, House of Cards, and Game of Thrones) are practically guaranteed nominations. They are the hottest dramas on TV and are universally praised. Breaking Bad is the reigning champ, and this season (the final eight episodes of the series) is stronger than the season it won for last year. True Detective was assumed to be the frontrunner in the Miniseries categories, but then swapped over to the Drama categories, making for an exciting race. House of Cards is coming off of a hot second season and Game of Thrones is in the midst of it's biggest season yet. For the last two spots, there is more competition. Honestly, any of the remaining shows on the list could take the last two spots. Scandal is the hottest show on network TV right now, but it is extremely over-the-top so while the Emmys might embrace the acting (Kerry Washington was nominated last year and guest star Dan Bucatinsky won a guest acting Emmy), they might not go for it in the series race. Masters of Sex was primed as the year's hottest newcomer, but airing last fall, it may not be remembered. Homeland won this award two years ago, but in a saddening fall from grace, the show was not well received in its third season. If the Emmys refuse to give up a solid contender that won this award, it may make it back in there to critics' chagrin, but with the high quality of so many dramas, it doesn't seem likely. Downton Abbey seems to somehow slide into this race, but I think it'll just miss the cut for the last two spots. So who gets it? The Good Wife, a show in its fifth season, experienced a huge creative turnaround this year with shocking storylines, amazing performances, and high caliber writing and directing, and although this is a show that was dropped in this category after its second season, the serious buzz that has spanned the whole television season should grab the series a spot among cable TV's best as the lone representative of network TV dramas. Finally, I'm expecting Mad Men to make it into the race once again. Although this show is absolutely nowhere near the Emmy powerhouse it was in its first few years, I just don't see the Emmys dropping this show. I think it'll finish out its run next year with nominations for every season (whether they're deserved or not is another matter).
Best Comedy Series
1. Modern Family
2. The Big Bang Theory
3. Veep
4. Louie
5. Orange Is The New Black
6. Girls
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7. Brooklyn Nine-Nine
8. Silicon Valley
9. Parks and Recreation
10. Shameless
This is shaping up to be quite an interesting race. To start, this race really comes down to the first eight contenders. Numbers nine and ten (Parks and Recreation & Shameless) have a slight chance of making it into the list of nominees, but this won't be their time. So of the eight contenders left, what's to say of them? Modern Family is the four-time reigning champ, so it's pretty much all but assured a nomination. Many people say that the show's wins for the third and fourth season are not warranted, but even doubters will agree that Modern Family had a return to form this season, so it is possible they'll get a fifth win and becoming the comedy series with the most wins in this category. Who are its competitors? The Big Bang Theory has grown over the course of its run and is now not only the top comedy series, but top scripted show on television this season. The show has blown up and is the broadest hit on a network television station since Friends. Remember that Friends was a show that had to wait until its eighth season to win this prize, and with Big Bang in its seventh, it is possible it could follow the same path, especially if voters are tired of Modern Family. Both shows will have to compete with a monster of a different kind: Veep. Cable television's best shot at a win in this category comes from the HBO comedy which is on a hot streak and has a chance to breakthrough with a victory this year. Louie is back this year, although the season was not expected to premiere in time for this year's Emmy season. But alas, much like Veep, Louie is airing as Emmy discussions are heating up, and it looks good for a nomination since this season has maintained good reviews. I personally don't see this as the kind of show that will win the Best Comedy Series Emmy, but it should be good for a nomination. Orange Is The New Black will be the most curious show to keep an eye on this Emmy season. The show is competing in the Comedy categories after submitting in the Drama categories at other awards shows such as the Golden Globes (where it only garnered one nomination for Best Actress) and the Screen Actors Guild Awards (where it received no nominations). The problem is that many don't agree with the definition of this prison saga as a comedy, but I think it'll get a nomination, and if they do, they might even surprise with a serious run for the win. Girls is a two-time nominee in this category, and after a Homeland-type critical decline in favor of the show in the second season, this third season was a bit more well received (although I actually prefer season two to seasons one and three). I'm predicting Girls to make the cut, so what shows are peeking in from the outside? Brooklyn Nine-Nine just won two Golden Globes including Best Comedy Series and is network TV's hottest new comedy, but it's small audience means it may not have enough word of mouth to garner a nomination, despite praise for the show across the board. Silicon Valley has the plum post-Game of Thrones spot on HBO and leads into Veep, and when reviews first surfaced for the show, the word was that HBO would have a broad hit on its hands, but that hasn't been exactly the case. The show has garnered favorable reaction, but not show-stopping praise as expected from initial reviews. Still, critical praise could boost the show into the top six.
Best Drama Actor
1. Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad
2. Kevin Spacey - House of Cards
3. Matthew McConaughey - True Detective
4. Jon Hamm - Mad Men
5. James Spader - The Blacklist
6. Woody Harrelson - True Detective
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7. Michael Sheen - Masters of Sex
8. Jeff Daniels - The Newsroom
9. Damian Lewis - Homeland
10. Matthew Rhys - The Americans
What a category this year, especially when you consider the two previous winners of this award are ranked in the lower tier of this analysis. Bryan Cranston, of course, ranks in the top spot, and it would seem almost impossible for him to lose this award considering his stellar performance in the last few episodes of the series. However, he does face extremely rough competition. Kevin Spacey is absolutely deserving of an Emmy for his performance on House of Cards, but because he does not often get the show-stopping, everything-but-the-kitchen-sink scenes that Cranston has, he might have to wait until next year when Cranston is not in his way. Still, a third contender can make a run for the trophy. True Detective, which as stated above was not expected to compete in the Drama categories, is making a serious threat to the Best Drama Actor award with not one, but two performances. This year's Oscar winner for Best Actor, Matthew McConaughey, might pick up a matching Emmy with his chilling performance in the HBO series. He certainly has the buzz and star power to match (and maybe even triumph) Cranston and Spacey, and his performance is every bit as transformative as the role he won his Academy Award for in Dallas Buyers Club. However, McConaughey's co-star Woody Harrelson is also competing in this category, and with the majority of the buzz going to McConaughey, it's possible Harrelson could be (unfairly) snubbed, but I've got a good feeling he'll make it in, which would be very impressive for the show. Jon Hamm is a utility nominee, and he'll likely make the lineup once again, although he'll be a bridesmaid once again. Maybe next year in the show's final season he can finally eke out a win. James Spader is the star of network TV's hottest new drama, The Blacklist, and with acclaim plus three Emmy wins, he should take a spot at the nominee's table. But who might surprise and snatch a spot? Michael Sheen's performance on Masters of Sex is understated, but outstanding, and if the show had a little more buzz, he might make it into the lineup. Jeff Daniels won last year in a surprise victory, but with praise for The Newsroom almost non-existent and many great performances looking to be noticed, it might be one-and-done for Daniels (don't worry, it's happened plenty of other times before). Damian Lewis won this prize in Homeland's first season and looked to take it again last year, but it is a new story this time around with his character having very minimal presence this season. In fact, many are confused as to why Showtime submitted him in this category. Since he didn't play a huge part in this season of Homeland, I don't think he'll land a nomination, but if he does happen to sneak in, you can really never say never when it comes to Homeland. Finally, Matthew Rhys, half of the leading couple on FX's The Americans, has an outside chance, but since buzz for the show isn't as high as last season, and because of the show's lack of a presence in last year's nominations, it is a very small shot at a nomination.
Best Drama Actress
1. Robin Wright - House of Cards
2. Claire Danes - Homeland
3. Kerry Washington - Scandal
4. Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife
5. Elisabeth Moss - Mad Men
6. Tatiana Maslany - Orphan Black
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7. Vera Farmiga - Bates Motel
8. Lizzy Caplan - Masters of Sex
9. Keri Russell - The Americans
10. Michelle Dockery - Downton Abbey
This is another exciting race that could see a lot of variety and some well-deserved nominations. In fact, any combination of these ladies could end up being announced on nomination day, and potentially (much like last year), we may see more than six nominees in this category. Robin Wright is riding a wave of buzz right now after snatching House of Cards' first acting award with the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama Series this January, and with it came a larger and fiercer presence in the second season of House of Cards. She has a great storyline that is begging for an Emmy win, but of course, it's not that simple. She's got three-time champion (and winner of this category for the past two years) Claire Danes, whose show might have seen a decrease in buzz, but her performance remains its strongest component. Especially if voters don't give the show its due in other categories, Danes can still get a third Emmy for this role. The buzziest potential nominee might just be Kerry Washington, whose soap drama requires a lot from her. I mean, I sometimes get exhausted listening to her spew out those awesome monologues. Add in the fact that Washington was pregnant for most of this season and Scandal's rising buzz, and it's possible that the Emmys might give this award to TV's It girl (and the first African-American to win this category). Julianna Margulies was shockingly snubbed last year despite seven nominees, but that shouldn't be the case this year. Along with the rise in buzz for The Good Wife, Margulies has gotten huge praise for her portrayal, especially after That Thing That Happened In The Middle Of The Season (no spoilers here). She might even make a run at the big prize itself. Elisabeth Moss is much like Jon Hamm in terms of getting the nomination, but never the win, and I think she'll make it back into the race this year, although I haven't heard much about her performance this season. The last spot (as with most spots in this race) could really go to anyone, but I'm going out on a limb and saying Tatiana Maslany will make a huge breakthrough. Orphan Black is a show with defeaning buzz, and there was outrage last year when Maslany wasn't honored. What makes Maslany's snub interesting is that it wasn't for one performance, but eight! Maslany plays all versions of a group of clones, with distinct accents and quirks to utter perfection. However, the Emmys have never taken kindly to sci-fi shows, largely why many think Maslany was snubbed, plus the show airs on BBC America, a network largely ignored by the Emmys. But her name is on everyone's tongue this year and I think Emmy voters will take notice this time around. However, she's got some people hot on her heels. Vera Farmiga, a nominee last year, turned in an equally impressive performance this season on Bates Motel and could show up once again. Lizzy Caplan got a lot of buzz for playing a headstrong woman going against stereotypes on Masters of Sex, but buzz has died down. Keri Russell is another actress who will suffer from lack of buzz for her show/performance, and finally, Michelle Dockery has been seen as a filler nominee these past few years, and I think this year may be the year we don't hear her name, but if it's in favor of these fine performances, that works for me.
Best Comedy Actor
1. Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
2. Louis CK - Louie
3. Andy Samberg - Brooklyn Nine-Nine
4. Don Cheadle - House of Lies
5. Thomas Middleditch - Silicon Valley
6. Johnny Galecki - The Big Bang Theory
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7. Robin Williams - The Crazy Ones
8. Matt LeBlanc - Episodes
9. William H. Macy - Shameless
10. Michael J. Fox - The Michael J. Fox Show
This might actually be one of the hardest categories to predict just because of how weak it is. In fact, I would say the only locks in this category are the top two actors. Jim Parsons is a three-time winner in this category and the undeniable frontrunner. With a fourth win this year, Parsons would tie Michael J. Fox, Kelsey Grammar and Carroll O'Connor for the most wins in this category. Since The Big Bang Theory isn't slowing down anytime soon and Parsons certainly isn't facing a lot of major competition, it could happen. There are a few factors that stand in his way. Louis CK is back in the race, but I'm not sure he'll ever win an acting award for Louie. He has already won for directing, and a writing win will likely happen at some point in the show's run, but I'm just not sure it's the kind of performance that wins this category. However, he will most likely get another nomination. Andy Samberg is another one to watch out for. Samberg took him the Best Comedy Actor Golden Globe in a surprise win, and the only thing that hurts him is that Brooklyn Nine-Nine isn't a big new hit, but rather has a small audience. Regardless, he should get in on name recognition in addition to the fact that it's just a good performance. He might even surprise and win here too if his tape and buzz match up perfectly. Don Cheadle is a name that has popped up way too many times on this list. As someone who has watched House of Lies episodes purely for analyzing the tapes, it is absolutely nothing special in my opinion and Cheadle shouldn't be nominated. But the lack of competition means that name-checking will once again come into play and we should expect Cheadle to get another unwarranted nomination. Really, beyond that, it is anybody's guess. Michael J. Fox looked to have this award locked up back in the beginning of the season, and then something happened...his show bombed. With The Michael J. Fox Show long forgotten, I doubt he'll pop up here (but a guest nom for The Good Wife is definitely not out of the question). William H. Macy does a great job on Shameless (I'm in the middle of my bingewatch and I just finished season two), and while the show competed in the Drama categories during its first three seasons, it is now in the Comedy categories. The lack of competition and the switch could work in Macy's favor, but it's really too hard to say right now which is why I think he'll miss out. Matt LeBlanc is in another Don Cheadle-type situation where he really shouldn't be getting nominated for his show, but he will just because. But I'm not predicting him this year...I think voters are gonna try and shake things up in this category. One way to do that would be nominating Robin Williams. In the same way that Michael J. Fox could've been a lock, many said the same thing about Williams. But while The Crazy Ones didn't get axed halfway through the season, it did get canned by CBS after the season finished airing. As buzz died down during the season and the show is one-and-done, the Emmys would be making a big statement by nominating Williams, but I don't see it happening. So who do I think can make it in? Right now, I'm going with two fresh faces to the category. Thomas Middleditch is the lead of Silicon Valley, a show that was supposed to make a big splash, but now appears to be waning. I think it's possible, however, that the Emmys give Silicon Valley a bone and throw Middleditch a nomination, and in a category where there's barely any high-caliber competition, it could certainly happen. And for a bit of an "out there" pick, I'm going with Johnny Galecki, nominating him alongside his co-star Parsons. While Parsons has always gotten the Emmy love for the show (minus his on-screen girlfriend Mayim Bialik), Galecki is well-respected and built a strong case for himself. With the show's broad appeal at an all-time high, this could be the year Galecki finally slips into the race, and let's be honest -- if it came at the expense of nominations for Cheadle and LeBlanc, that would not be the worst thing.
Best Comedy Actress
1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus - Veep
2. Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation
3. Lena Dunham - Girls
4. Taylor Schilling - Orange Is The New Black
5. Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie
6. Anna Faris - Mom
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7. Melissa McCarthy - Mike and Molly
8. Zooey Deschanel - New Girl
9. Emmy Rossum - Shameless
10. Laurie Metcalf - Getting On
A category with a lot of ladies who could grab the award, but will probably fall victim to one Lady Dreyfus. Julia Louis-Dreyfus is absolutely guaranteed a nomination and (most likely) a win for a third time for her portrayal of Selina Meyer on Veep. With the show on fire, and Louis-Dreyfus doing a lot of press for the new season, she's bigger than ever and the same can be said of the character, whose character is in the middle of a great campaign arc. Who will join her in the nomination circle? Amy Poehler, who beat Louis-Dreyfus for the Golden Globe (although that's probably more to do with her hosting the ceremony with Tina Fey), can probably count on another nomination, but with next season being her last, she has limited opportunities to avoid becoming another Steve Carell (beloved actor who never won for an acclaimed role). Lena Dunham's acting on Girls has only gotten better this season, and it's probably the show's best shot at a major nomination this year since it teeters on the edge in other categories. Her performance is ballsy, but compared to the broad humor of Poehler and Louis-Dreyfus, I don't know if it can win (perhaps with the right tape). Taylor Schilling stands a good shot at being the lone acting representative for Orange Is The New Black because of the large ensemble, but it would be a very deserved nomination. Edie Falco will likely get another nomination for Nurse Jackie, but the show is past its heyday and she's already got a win, so she'll have to settle for more nominations. Joining Schilling as newcomers to this category (which is losing two nominees from cancelled/finished shows last year in Laura Dern from Enlightened and Tina Fey from 30 Rock) could be Anna Faris from Mom. Yes, she's a movie actress who made the small screen transition but the surprising development of Mom from dirty humor sitcom to heartwarming, thoughtful comedy showed that Faris has the chops and could get a nomination. Who could miss out? Two previous nominees who missed the boat last year, Melissa McCarthy and Zooey Deschanel, could sneak back in, but my guess is that they're done. Many attribute McCarthy's win and second nomination to the success of Bridesmaids, but while she's only become a bigger star since then, it's really just obvious that a nomination for her would be a name-check for a beloved comedic actress. Zooey Deschanel (who was robbed of a second season nomination) won't get back into the race this year if Emmy voters take into consideration the decline in quality of New Girl from its outstanding second season. Two cable ladies might get an outside shot. Emmy Rossum is in the same boat as co-star William H. Macy, and while she would be a deserving nominee, it's not possible to say if Emmy voters will adore Shameless now that it is considered a comedy. Finally, Laurie Metcalf has name recognition going for her, but with many saying her placement is category fraud and virtually no buzz surrounding her show, it is an outside shot.
I'll be back next week to discuss the supporting categories, so check back next Monday for the next "State of the Race!"
Evan
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