Monday, May 25, 2015

Fall 2015 TV Time Slot Wars: Thursdays

In the TV world, you're only as strong as your competition and with the scheduling choices made by the broadcast networks last week, there will be plenty of competition as shows try to grab an audience. Especially for new shows, the first few weeks of the TV season are crucial in determining which shows can break out and which ones will cling to life before October is even over. Below, I'll be taking a look at the schedules across all networks on a night-by-night basis to predict the fortunes of this fall's schedules.

THURSDAYS

8-9 PM
ABC: "Grey's Anatomy"
CBS: "Thursday Night Football" ("The Big Bang Theory" & "Life in Pieces" in November)
Fox: "Bones"
NBC: "Heroes Reborn"
The CW: "The Vampire Diaries"

Thursdays were shaken up quite a bit last season by the arrival of CBS' airing of "Thursday Night Football," giving them a pretty big advantage over the competition for the first two months of the season. Of course, even when football is gone, CBS is still a top dog on Thursday thanks to the slotting of broadcast TV's most-watched show, "The Big Bang Theory." So regardless of how you look at it, CBS definitely takes the cake during this hour, whether they're airing football or "Big Bang." But that's not to discredit what is happening on the other networks. ABC moved their signature medical drama "Grey's Anatomy" to the 8 o'clock hour last season to open their 9 and 10 PM timeslot opportunities, and the move worked well for the show which, despite, its age, is still a solid performer for the network. Likewise, "Bones" is a show who has seen its timeslot shift nearly every season. Yet, for the first time in the show's run, it is going to complete a season in the same timeslot and return to that hour again the following year. And when that happens for the first time in your show's ten-year run, it says something. Still, "Bones" is a good performer for Fox, pulling in a steady audience for most of its run, despite a decrease in ratings this year due to the competitive timeslot. It's something Fox is willing to overlook, I suppose. And finally, The CW's original hit "The Vampire Diaries" will obviously return to the timeslot that it has stayed in its whole run. As the show is about to undergo a major change after the departure of lead actress Nina Dobrev, it's still a flagship series for the network that performs well even on a competitive night. Still, change hits the Thursdays-at-8 hour for one network, which saw "The Biggest Loser: Glory Days" pull in mediocre ratings. Paired with a DOA comedy block at 9 and low-rated veteran "Parenthood" at 10, NBC began making some changes for the better in midseason by moving "The Blacklist" to the Thursdays at 9 slot, but again, surrounding it with newcomers "The Slap" at 8 and "Allegiance" at 10 was a non-starter. In an effort to quash the terrible year NBC had on Thursday nights, it appears they've surrounded 'The Blacklist" with similar programming, and in the 8 PM slot, NBC is taking a big gamble with a reboot of the beloved cult series "Heroes." I'm sure "Heroes" fans exist and they'll definitely be checking out the show, but it's also a good opportunity to reach out to TV viewers who are looking for action away from football. It's the next best alternative since "Grey's," "Bones," and "Diaries" are all a bit more female-heavy. I don't think, given the competition, that the numbers for "Heroes Reborn" will be staggering, but to impress the network, they'll have to at least be good or passable, and with an established brand like "Heroes," that seems plausible.

9-10 PM
ABC: "Scandal"
CBS: "Thursday Night Football" ("Mom" & "Angel from Hell" in November)
Fox: "Sleepy Hollow"
NBC: "The Blacklist"
The CW: "The Originals"

Again, with "Football" in this timeslot, things are a bit thrown off, but it's worth noting that beyond that, this timeslot is all about "Scandal" vs. "The Blacklist," two of the hottest shows coming into last season. Now, another year older, those shows are still running the show, even if they've taken a bit of wind out of each other's sails. Hot on their heels was "Mom," which is now anchoring the Thursday-at-9 slot. Although not as strong as it's 8 o'clock partner, it's still a hit for the network and is usually only off by a million viewers from "Scandal" and "Blacklist." Whether "Mom" will then boost "Angel from Hell" (and the same goes for "Big Bang" and newcomer "Life in Pieces" at 8) remains to be seen, but the competition from Fox and The CW isn't too harsh to expect otherwise. Fox moved the struggling "Sleepy Hollow" to this competitive timeslot in what I can only assume is a secretly smart move or a fine excuse to let the show die. I don't see the show gaining any new viewers in this slot, and it's in fact likelier that they'll lose some. On The CW, "The Originals" seems to finally be meeting its destiny of being paired with "Vampire Diaries," the show it spun-off. However, "Originals" is facing major competition, but since it is correct to assume many "Originals" fans are viewers of the original "Diaries" series, the ratings for "Originals" may remain steady as the show switches its timeslot.

10-11 PM
ABC: "How to Get Away with Murder"
CBS: "Elementary"
NBC: "The Player"

This timeslot sees two returning players and a new "Player." On NBC, the network (as mentioned above) is surrounding "The Blacklist" with similarly-themed shows, and "The Player" is the best likely match for a number of reasons. While the plots are not that similar, the action-heavy shows both come from the same production company, so the network is looking to rely on semi-synergy to power it's newcomer, and giving it the post-"Blacklist" slot will probably be a bit of help. CBS has had "Elementary" in this timeslot since it began three years ago, so entering the fourth season, "Elementary" has the longest run in this slot. Still, the show's ratings have been on a bit of a downward slide, despite still performing modestly. Certainly, last season saw "Elementary" facing off with one of the breakout hits of the season "How to Get Away with Murder," which returns to this timeslot again in the fall. The show was a massive hit for ABC, and with a shortened season, it should dominate the first few months of the season. Will the ratings hit the same levels they did last season? It wouldn't be smart to assume a huge fall-off, but I think the ratings will hit right around what we've come to expect from the show, and that should win the timeslot for ABC easily.

Evan

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