Fall 2015 TV Time Slot Wars: Tuesdays

In the TV world, you're only as strong as your competition and with the scheduling choices made by the broadcast networks last week, there will be plenty of competition as shows try to grab an audience. Especially for new shows, the first few weeks of the TV season are crucial in determining which shows can break out and which ones will cling to life before October is even over. Below, I'll be taking a look at the schedules across all networks on a night-by-night basis to predict the fortunes of this fall's schedules.

TUESDAYS

8-9 PM
ABC: "The Muppets" & "Fresh Off the Boat"
CBS: "NCIS"
Fox: "Grandfathered" & "The Grinder"
NBC: "The Voice"
The CW: "The Flash"

There's no doubt that, in this timeslot, "NCIS" dominates in total audience numbers and "The Voice" takes the 18-49 demographic. Still, the networks have put up valiant efforts in their new schedules. The only show returning to its original timeslot here (besides "NCIS" and "Voice") is The CW's breakout hit, "The Flash." In it's first season, the show became a critical and (at least on a CW-scale) ratings smash, so of course the network wasn't going to move what is arguably it's biggest show. It appeals to a younger demographic that "NCIS" doesn't and that doesn't have interest in a reality-competition show like "The Voice." Fox had major difficulty filling this timeslot last year, so this year they're taking a bet on their two biggest comedy pilots, headlined by big TV stars John Stamos and Rob Lowe. Additionally, both shows have solid buzz and could attract a comedy crowd that is underserved. The only problem is that the comedy crowd will actually have plenty to choose from now that ABC is sticking with a comedy block in this timeslot. However, unlike last year's failed one-two punch of "Selfie" and "Manhattan Love Story," ABC is sticking with a major brand name and a returning sophomore show. ABC's new "Muppets" show has potential to be a very big hit for the network and could be the likeliest option for families (although Fox's "Grandfathered" could also do well with families). With a recognizable name and general love for those characters, it's hard to imagine the show won't at least do decent business. "Fresh Off the Boat" anchored Tuesdays in the winter and spring for ABC and did a good job, given the hard competition. The show's audience should only grow given the substantial lead-in it'll get from "Muppets." A combo of strong veterans and buzzy newcomers ensures that every network should see some degree of success in this timeslot.

9-10 PM

ABC: "Marvel's Agents of SHIELD"
CBS: "NCIS: New Orleans"
Fox: "Scream Queens"
NBC: "Heartbreaker"
The CW: "iZombie"

As in the hour earlier, three networks stuck to their guns in the 9-10 hour on Tuesdays. ABC with "SHIELD," CBS with the "New Orleans" NCIS spinoff and The CW's newcomer "iZombie" all held the timeslot this year (although "iZombie" only occupied the spot for the last two and a half months of the year). Each of these shows saw some degree of success. With the shift from 8 to 9 for "SHIELD," ratings slid, but the show was still a solid performer for the network. The "NCIS" spinoff worked well behind the flagship series, and "iZombie," while not as solid as other newcomers like "Jane the Virgin" and "The Flash," held up well on its own. Meanwhile, at Fox and NBC, two comedy blocks faced low ratings and a lack of buzz. Fox's "New Girl" and "The Mindy Project" didn't pull in great ratings in the timeslot, while NBC's "Marry Me" and "About a Boy" didn't register much of a pulse and were pulled from the schedule by midseason. With three out of those four shows getting axed ("New Girl" is being held for midseason, although "Mindy" was recently picked up by Hulu), the networks needed new shows to fill in this timeslot. Given the testosterone-heavy "SHIELD" and "NCIS: NO," it's no surprise networks went with shows that might more heavily appeal to women. On NBC, "Heartbreaker" looks to be an heir to the "Grey's Anatomy" throne of primetime medical soap operas, which could either be a good thing (if it's a good show) or a bad thing (if it's not). The show will actually need to be, you know, good if it wants to attract an audience. On Fox, it's likelier that their new show will find more of an audience as it is the latest Ryan Murphy creation, "Scream Queens." With a cast filled with stars and a producer who has a pretty good track record, plus the inventive storyline, it's plausible that "Scream Queens" will be one of the buzziest new shows of the fall, and that could draw a major crowd to the network, especially younger viewers who are disinterested in "SHIELD" and "New Orleans."

10-11 PM

ABC: "Quantico"
CBS: "Limitless"
NBC: "Best Time Ever with Neil Patrick Harris" ("Chicago Fire" in November)

Whereas stability defines the networks' schedules earlier in the evening, the three 10 PM programming channels are trying out new shows in the timeslot. Yes, "Chicago Fire" returns in November, but for two months before that, NBC is betting on live entertainment from Neil Patrick Harris. Given the format of the show and the star power of it's titular personality, I would at the very least expect good ratings for the first episode or two. From there, it depends on if the show is actually special. As for "Quantico" and "Limitless," the two shows have a little bit of action and a lot of drama, yet "Quantico" looks like it might appeal to a younger audience. Still, "Limitless" has the promise of Bradley Cooper in a recurring role, which could just be enough to attract a sizable audience. If the show's are good, they could all equally succeed here. But at the same time, if the quality isn't there for all three shows, this could be one low-rated hour of TV.

Evan