MONDAYS
8-9 PM:
CBS: "The Big Bang Theory" & "Life in Pieces" ("Supergirl" in November)
Fox: "Gotham"
NBC: "The Voice"
The CW: "Crazy Ex-Girlfriend"
For years now, this timeslot's greatest war has been between "Dancing" and "Voice," arguably the two biggest reality-competition shows on broadcast television (sorry, "American Idol"). Then last year, things got shaken up a bit when the most-watched show on television, "The Big Bang Theory," moved back to its original Monday night slot while CBS broadcast NFL games on Thursday nights for the first two months of the season. Additionally, Fox was launching it's biggest bid at a hit, the Batman-based "Gotham," in the same timeslot. Suddenly, putting "Big Bang" and "Gotham" in competition with "Dancing" and "Voice" wasn't just a timeslot war - it was a bloodbath. Each show succeeded in its own right, and although "Dancing" and "Voice" ratings slipped a bit, they still attracted major audiences. Once "Big Bang" moved back to Thursday nights, the dust cleared a little bit. However, the same process is going to start up again at the beginning of this season. How will things work out this time? I'm expecting much of the same -- "Big Bang" draws a big, broad audience as it is one of the most popular shows on television, and it's the likeliest option for those not interested in reality-competition shows. "Life in Pieces," assumingly, will hold onto a good portion of the "Big Bang" audience, so unless it is a terrible show that people have no interest in watching, it'll do just fine. "Dancing" and "Voice" will have their loyal audiences, and that's not going to change anytime soon, even as the former enters what will be its twenty-first season this fall. "Gotham" slipped a bit from its initial premiere numbers, but kept a steady and dedicated audience. Those numbers don't seem to be at potential to slip when the show comes back. The only potential loser in this timeslot? The CW's "Crazy Ex-Girlfriend," which, while tonally unique and definitely unlike anything else on TV, will have a big uphill battle for success. Last fall, The CW slotted "The Originals" here, and it's ratings dropped slightly from the previous season when it aired on Tuesdays. But that show came in with one season under its belt and a fan base already established. The same cannot be said for "Crazy," which is going to need to find an audience to support it. Otherwise, it is going to be caught up in the dust surrounding much bigger players here. Finally, there's one factor that needs to be discussed - the November arrival of "Supergirl." Once "Big Bang" and "Life in Pieces" move to Thursdays after football is done, CBS will slot it's biggest pilot of the season in this Mondays at 8 timeslot. "Supergirl" comes with huge brand awareness and a lot of buzz that will likely only grow throughout the summer and beginning of the fall season. That's not great news for the other networks, who thought they might get a break once "Big Bang" moved away from Mondays, since "Supergirl" certainly has breakout potential. It might be a little too early to judge there, but since ratings for reality-competition shows tend to be at their strongest in the beginning of the season before weaning off as the end draws near, that could boost "Supergirl" to be big.
9-10 PM:
ABC: "Dancing with the Stars"CBS: "Scorpion"
Fox: "Minority Report"
NBC: "The Voice"
The CW: "Jane the Virgin"
The arguments above for "Dancing" and "Voice" stay true here, although their competition isn't as strong as "Big Bang." Still, the arrival of "Big Bang" on Mondays last year did help boost ratings for "Scorpion," which became a hit for CBS. The audience for "Scorpion" is likely to remain in tact, except the fact that Fox has slotted a new show in the timeslot that "Sleepy Hollow" occupied last fall, and this one threatens to take a chunk out of the "Scorpion" audience. Whereas "Scoprion" was detrimental to "Sleepy" last year, "Minority Report" could do the same to "Scorpion" this year as they both cater to the same audience. Additionally, "Minority Report" has a recognizable title and is Fox's big bet on a hit this season. Again, "Dancing" and "Voice" won't be too hurt by their competitors, but "Scorpion" and "Minority" are definitely going to battle this fall. And on a smaller scale, "Jane the Virgin" was not a ratings powerhouse, but did become a breakout hit amongst critics. As audiences find the show over the summer, it's possible the ratings could see a slight boost this fall, although being on The CW, that doesn't mean the show is going to start pulling in ratings to rival the other networks.
10-11 PM:
CBS: "NCIS: Los Angeles"
NBC: "Blindspot"
This is more of the same except that NBC has a new show slotted here that, as tends to be a trend for Mondays this season, has potential to be a big hit for them. Last year, NBC started the season with "The Blacklist" in this slot, before moving it in November and welcoming the short-lived "State of Affairs," which did not attain the success that "Blacklist" did in that timeslot during its freshman season. What does that tell us? The show actually needs to be good to attract ratings. So it's possible that the success of "Blindspot" will depend on if it is actually a good show (if only that is how ratings worked for all shows!). The "Castle" and "NCIS: LA" audiences are loyal to their shows for the most part, so "Blindspot" will need to find its own audience for success. The lead-in from "The Voice" will surely help, but I think the key here is that it just needs to be a good show. If it is, it'll do solid business here.
I'll be back later this week to continue posting time-slot wars for other nights of the week!
Evan
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