Best Drama Series
1. Breaking Bad
2. True Detective
3. Game of Thrones
4. House of Cards
5. The Good Wife
6. Mad Men
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7. Masters of Sex
8. The Americans
9. Homeland
10. Downton Abbey
This order really hasn't changed much in the past couple of weeks, but it's certainly still a race to keep your eyes on. I'm extremely confident that the top four will be nominated here. The Good Wife has certainly earned its spot, in addition to a lot of buzz and being the likeliest network drama nominated, so I think it'll get in, but I'm not as sure of its chances as the series above it. If TGW is snubbed here, or really just anywhere across the board, I will be so upset and angry. Mad Men will probably also take the last slot because, as I've stated before, it's a show that at this point in its run will likely be nominated through to the very end, even if it never wins again. Masters of Sex is the spoiler in this race because the Emmys could very well embrace it as their shiny new series that gets love in multiple categories (although that title might already belong to True Detective). The Americans has quality (so I've been told), but no buzz, while Homeland and Downton Abbey are here because of their previous nominations. I think if either of those last two shows gets a nomination before the ones above it, there is going to be chaos tomorrow. But this is my predicted final line-up.
Best Comedy Series
1. Modern Family
2. Veep
3. The Big Bang Theory
4. Orange Is the New Black
5. Louie
6. Brooklyn Nine-Nine
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7. Girls
8. Silicon Valley
9. Parks and Recreation
10. Shameless
Again, no changes here. This race is definitely down to the top seven contenders, and I have a gut feeling that this could be a race that ends up with seven nominees, per the new 2% rule I explained a few weeks back. I just think Brooklyn Nine-Nine and Girls are so interchangeable for the last spot that voting could be close enough to include both. Modern Family, Veep, and The Big Bang Theory are fine for nominations. Orange Is the New Black and Louie are both probably in as well, although it would be heartbreaking to see OITNB miss out, which would really be because voters don't see it as a comedy but rather a drama. Speaking of genre jumping, Shameless is ranked #10, but it could make a splash if comedy voters embrace it in a way the drama side did not. Anything is possible. Silicon Valley most likely won't get the nomination, and I don't think it would be deserved if so, and Parks and Recreation is a solid veteran but is most likely past its Emmys heyday.
Best Drama Actor
1. Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad
2. Matthew McConaughey - True Detective
3. Kevin Spacey – House of Cards
4. Jon Hamm - Mad Men
5. Woody Harrelson - True Detective
6. James Spader - The Blacklist
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7. Michael Sheen - Masters of Sex
8. Matthew Rhys – The Americans
9. Jeff Daniels - The Newsroom
10. Damian Lewis – Homeland
Cranston, McConaughey and Spacey are guaranteed nominees. Hamm's show is losing buzz, but he'll still get nominated although its less of a guarantee than in the past. I moved Harrelson up one spot and Spader down, but mostly because Spader's show is not likely to get any other major nominations, as opposed to True Detective which I'm expecting will get plenty of love. He is James Spader, after all, so his odds are pretty great. This is another race where there could be seven nominees, because the performances in the #7 and #8 spots could definitely sneak in. I give the edge to Sheen, who'd have an easier time getting in for a new performance vs. Rhys, snubbed for his first season already. Daniels simply cannot compete with these performances, despite his win last year, and Lewis is a non-factor, to be honest.
Best Drama Actress
1. Robin Wright - House of Cards
2. Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife
3. Claire Danes – Homeland
4. Kerry Washington – Scandal
5. Elisabeth Moss – Mad Men
6. Vera Farmiga – Bates Motel
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7. Tatiana Maslany – Orphan Black
8. Lizzy Caplan – Masters of Sex
9. Keri Russell - The Americans
10. Michelle Dockery - Downton Abbey
This is, ladies and gentlemen, the race to watch. Seriously, there could be any combination of these ten ladies and I wouldn't be shocked, but I'd certainly be surprised at who was left off. I don't think anyone is a lock but the closest is Wright, who has good buzz for her performance and her show, and seems like the most likely nominee. Margulies was snubbed last year, which is his biggest battle to fight, but I think TGW buzz is so strong, she cannot be denied a nomination this year. I also believe last year's snub was truly because voters wanted to throw support behind other new nominees and just assumed Margulies would get in no matter what. They won't make the same mistake twice. No matter how you felt about Homeland's third season, there's no denying that the best part of the show is Claire Danes. Unless Homeland literally gets no nominations, which is highly unlikely, Danes will be here at least. Washington is still the new "It" girl and since this is the likeliest way to reward TV's buzziest drama, she's solidly in the mix. Moss will probably be here because this is Mad Men and blah blah blah...I'd love to be proven wrong though, especially if some of the ladies underneath her make it in. I made the decision to bump up Farmiga and slide Maslany down to #7, and that's really because Farmiga is just recognizable and a previous nominee, and despite the universal praise and Critics Choice wins and the overall chant of "You have to nominate her!," I'm not sold that the Emmys will wisen up and give Maslany the nomination. I would absolutely adore to be proven wrong, though. Even further down the list, Caplan has a great shot still for Masters of Sex, which I've already said could make a very big showing. Russell and Dockery are less likely, but definitely still possible, but in my opinion, the line-up will come out of the top eight. And at this point, they could nominate all 8 and I wouldn't get angry at them for going overboard. This category is that big this year.
Best Comedy Actor
1. Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
2. Louis CK – Louie
3. Andy Samberg - Brooklyn Nine-Nine
4. Don Cheadle - House of Lies
5. Matt LeBlanc – Episodes
6. Johnny Galecki – The Big Bang Theory
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7. Robin Williams - The Crazy Ones
8. William H. Macy – Shameless
9. Thomas Middleditch – Silicon Valley
10. Chris Messina – The Mindy Project
In comparison to the previous category, this one...well...sucks. This is a totally thrill-less race, which is why I'm expecting all of last year's eligible nominees to return (even though Cheadle and LeBlanc shouldn't be anywhere near here). That's also why I moved LeBlanc up a spot. Samberg is the new kid on the block and I'm expecting a nomination for him, even if Brooklyn Nine-Nine is snubbed for Best Comedy Series. I have Galecki in the sixth spot, but he really should be in here considering he was a previous nominee and the show is stronger than ever. In a race that is easily the weakest of the year, he should totally be in. But there are a bunch of wildcards here. Williams looked like an easy nominee in the beginning of the season, before The Crazy Ones didn't live up to some expectations (I really enjoyed it) and it was cancelled after one season. That's gonna be hard to get into even this race, but again, because of the weak category, never say never. I've already stated the Shameless situation, and Macy would be so deserving of a nomination, but I can't pull the trigger. Middleditch's show was disappointing, in my eyes, and the lack of buzz won't push him any higher than #9. Finally, Messina could get a surprise nomination, which wouldn't be a bad thing at all, but if The Mindy Project is getting recognized, it's likelier to be for its star or in the writing race.
Best Comedy Actress
1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep
2. Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation
3. Lena Dunham – Girls
4. Taylor Schilling - Orange Is The New Black
5. Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie
6. Mindy Kaling – The Mindy Project
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7. Anna Faris – Mom
8. Emmy Rossum – Shameless
9. Melissa McCarthy - Mike and Molly
10. Zooey Deschanel – New Girl
Here's another pretty good category. This list seems pretty solid for #1-5, and I would expect them all to make it in. Schilling and Falco are the most vulnerable, but seem like a safe bet. The last spot is a bit of a toss-up because I've had Faris there for a while, but just moved up Kaling. Kaling is announcing the nominees on Thursday with Carson Daly, and every year (almost), at least one of the announcers is nominated. Sure, it could be Carson Daly since he is a producer on The Voice which is guaranteed a Reality Series bid, not to mention Daly could be picked for Reality Show Host. However, I think Kaling could sneak into this race. Beyond the top competitors, the last spot is really up for grabs, and Kaling could definitely fit the bill. She writes, produces and stars in her show, much like Poehler and Dunham. The show gained some buzz although this is its only big opportunity to make a splash. Kaling herself is actually an Emmy nominee already as a writer and producer on The Office, so that works in her favor as well. It also helps that her closest competition is Faris, whose show is getting a lot of buzz for Allison Janney, but not as much for the lead actress. It's still certainly possible, and again, the 2% could strike, but it's going to be a tough race. I'll stick with Kaling, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Faris among the final lineup. Down the line, Deschanel and McCarthy have an outside shot as previous nominees, but their buzz needs to be bigger and both of their shows aren't as talked about anymore. The real wildcard is Rossum; with Shameless in the comedy race now, we'll see if Rossum can get some traction. Lord knows she deserves it. Again, because we don't have a proven track record, it's hard to say, but it would be a great nomination, especially given the stiff competition.
Best Drama Supporting Actor
1. Aaron Paul – Breaking Bad
2. Peter Dinklage – Game of Thrones
3. Dean Norris – Breaking Bad
4. Josh Charles – The Good Wife
5. Mandy Patinkin – Homeland
6. Charles Dance – Game of Thrones
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7. Jon Voight – Ray Donovan
8. Jeff Perry – Scandal
9. Jeffrey Wright - Boardwalk Empire
10. Jim Carter - Downton Abbey
This category is a huge toss-up. Outside of the top 5, the last slot could literally could to anybody. Seriously. There are main competitors, but this is a category where we're bound to see one WTF nominee that no one is guessing. Many people have Voight in the top tier of their predictions, but I just don't see it happening. Ray Donovan has no buzz and while Voight is a big name, I don't see a nomination happening. I had Perry as my WTF choice a few weeks back, and I think he's still in the race, especially if Scandal gets a bump in the nominations this year. Wright got high marks for his performance this season, so that's possible but even with Bobby Cannavale's win last year, Boardwalk Empire seems like old news. Carter is a previous nominee, and he could show up and randomly take a spot here. But, at the moment, I'm giving it to Dance who constantly does great work on GoT and if the show is going to get a lot of love this year (entirely possible as it now claims the achievement of HBO's highest-rated show ever), he could benefit as a result. But he may not make it in, even alongside some of the fellas in the top tier. Patinkin's show is expected to suffer and he could join that. Charles has a lot of buzz, but if voters ignore TGW, he won't be back. I think the top three are pretty safe, but I'm expecting a nominee to come out of left field here on Thursday.
Best Drama Supporting Actress
1. Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad (=)
2. Christine Baranski - The Good Wife (=)
3. Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey (=)
4. Christina Hendricks - Mad Men (=)
5. Michelle Monahan – True Detective (+1)
6. Bellamy Young – Scandal (+1)
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7. Emilia Clarke – Game of Thrones (-2)
8. Monica Potter – Parenthood (=)
9. Archie Panjabi - The Good Wife (+1)
10. Joanne Froggatt – Downton Abbey (=)
I've made some final changes in this category that I think will indicate some actual change. The biggest change here is dropping Clarke out of the top tier and into the seventh slot. Even GoT fans know that Clarke didn't have a flashy, great season. She really didn't do anything this season, and unlike last year when she had big moments, we didn't get a lot of that. Emmy voters could just write her name down just because, but I'm hoping they won't so as to reward more deserving actresses. Who, you ask? Well after threatening to pull the trigger, I finally put Young in my top six. Her Critics Choice win sealed the deal for me, and I think she'll get into the race. Monahan also seems like a safe bet now, although I wouldn't be surprised if she were left off. Hendricks and Smith are safe, I think, but they could shock and get snub, which would be fine by me, especially in Smith's case. Baranski and Gunn should be fine. Outside the top seven, Potter is here because Emmy voters are sometimes late to the party and while Potter easily could've won this category last year, she might get a nomination this year, even if her story wasn't as great. Panjabi and Froggatt are past nominees, but I don't think the race is too open to worry about them.
Best Comedy Supporting Actor
1. Ty Burrell - Modern Family
2. Tony Hale – Veep
3. Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family
4. Andre Braugher – Brooklyn Nine-Nine
5. Eric Stonestreet – Modern Family
6. Adam Driver – Girls
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7. Ed O'Neill - Modern Family
8. Timothy Simons – Veep
9. Simon Helberg – The Big Bang Theory
10. Reid Scott – Veep
Again, a race of seven actors. Sure, Simons could get in if voters embrace Veep and want to nominate two Veep guys here. Helberg could've got a nomination last year, but this year seems less likely. Scott is here, but he doesn't really have a shot. It's really down to the Modern Family guys, Hale, Braugher and Driver. Burrell seems like the safest bet since his character is the highlight of the show. Hale is the reigning champ and voters will probably stick with him. Ferguson had a big year on MF, so I'm expecting him to get in. Braugher will likely break in based on buzz and Emmy praise for the actor. Stonestreet had a great story this year, and although he was snubbed last year, he should get in now. Driver was a surprise nominee last year, and he was even better this year, so I hope voters stick with him. Unfortunately, that's bad news for O'Neill, who I'd be okay with leaving off. Last year showed voters can snub one of these guys, so O'Neill might be that guy this season. I'd like to see the category open up to others outside of the MF actors.
Best Comedy Supporting Actress
1. Allison Janney – Mom
2. Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory
3. Julie Bowen – Modern Family
4. Sofia Vergara - Modern Family
5. Anna Chlumsky – Veep
6. Kate Mulgrew - Orange Is The New Black
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7. Merritt Wever - Nurse Jackie
8. Haley Cuoco-Sweeting - The Big Bang Theory
9. Jane Lynch – Glee
10. Chelsea Peretti -
Brooklyn Nine-NineJanney will ride her buzz to a surefire nomination, and Bialik, Bowen and Vergara are probably safe bets to get in. Chlumsky surprised with a nomination last year, and as the straight woman on Veep, she could hold onto that spot once again this season especially with buzz for Veep growing. Mulgrew is the one OITNB lady that people are expecting to get into this category, and since most of her buzzier co-stars are in the guest categories, I think Mulgrew can work on OITNB love for a spot here. Wever is the reigning winner, but I'm expecting her to get dropped after winning an Emmy no one was expecting. Cuoco-Sweeting could certainly ride the wave of love for TBBT, and Lynch did surprise with a comeback nomination last year, which could still extend this year. But probably not. Peretti would be a deserving nominee, but it may not be time to reward her yet since she's not too big and she has louder competition.
Check back on Thursday for Emmy nomination analysis and reactions! Plus, we can see how well I did...yikes!!! Until then, comment below with your thoughts on my final Emmy predictions. Did I get it right? Who am I missing? Will you be watching the nomination announcement live with me? Let me know below!
Evan
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