Starting today, it's time for the Emmy Race Analysis -- analyzing individual races based on episodes submitted by the nominated actors and actresses, ranking the actors based on strength of tapes, and concluded by ranking the nominees in likelihood of winning. Today, we will begin with the guest acting categories for comedy.
NOTE: There are mild episode spoilers, so if you are in the process of watching any of these series or do not want to be spoiled about character arcs, episode details, etc., proceed with caution.
Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
Steve Buscemi - Portlandia (episode: "Celery")
Louis CK - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Louis CK)
Gary Cole - Veep (episode: "Crate")
Jimmy Fallon - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Jimmy Fallon")
Nathan Lane - Modern Family (episode: "The Wedding, Part 2")
Bob Newhart - The Big Bang Theory (episode: "The Proton Transmogrification")
Buscemi is probably the biggest surprise nominee here, mostly because "Portlandia" was ignored in the acting categories before this year (Fred Armisen grabbed a supporting nomination for the first time this year). The show itself is a variety show with a unique setup; there is one major story per episode with a few smaller, unrelated stories interweaving. In Buscemi's episode, he takes on the lead story as the main character, an advertising agent assigned with "redefining celery." It's a ridiculous plot that only gets weirder (he meets with an adviser who agrees to help him but only if Buscemi's wife sleeps with him), but Buscemi is strong throughout. He's over-the-top without playing it too hammy. It certainly could have its supporters, but I just don't think its strong enough to win an Emmy. Louis CK returned to host "SNL" and won another Emmy nomination for it, but his effort this time around is nowhere close to his first episode. There are no standout skits, and CK, while solid, doesn't get a chance to shine and steal the show. The most memorable moment of the episode is his monologue, which comes early in the hour and basically is a Louis CK ten-minute stand-up special. That's won him awards in the variety categories previously, but it won't win him an acting Emmy. Gary Cole plays one of the straight man roles on "Veep," but he is very well respected in the industry and has earned his first Emmy nomination with this role. In his submitted episode, he doesn't have a lot to do, but he is integral to the two main plots of the episode: he provides Selina with the titular crate that she stands on during her campaign, and he is the character that delivers news to Selina that she is going to be the next President of the United States. Beyond that, though, he's largely absent and doesn't do anything stellar in the episode, so he won't have much to contribute to the race.
Jimmy Fallon had a huge year with becoming the newest host of "The Tonight Show" and a lauded return to "SNL," where he hosted the Christmas episode. Fallon's episode was definitely one of (if not
the) best of the year, and his presence is a large contributing factor. There are plenty of standout sketches where Fallon is front and center, and the episode does have a lot of celebrity guests (notably Justin Timberlake, who guest-starred alongside Fallon in multiple skits), but he is not overshadowed once. Fallon has won this category before and he can definitely do it again. Nathan Lane really stole the show during this year's "Modern Family" finale. The final episodes center around the wedding of Cam and Mitch, and Lane plays their friend/wedding planner, who is in an eternal emotional downward spiral as things go from bad to worse to chaotic. Lane gets some killer one-liners, and in an episode that focuses heavily on the ensemble, even in the presence of the marriage of two main characters, Lane is still a standout. He might be the downright funniest of the nominees, but because he has to split screen time with the large ensemble, he may suffer from not sticking out enough. Finally, last year's winner Bob Newhart comes to defend his title with an episode that almost seems like Emmy bait. However, things go backward: within the first few minutes of the episode's opening, we find out Newhart's character has passed away. Newhart's performance is actually as a ghost, a figment of Sheldon's imagination. He has some humorous moments and even gets to have a heartfelt moment or two, a good mix of range. Of course, the sight of Newhart in "Star Wars" garb is funny in and of itself. He can definitely repeat.
Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Jimmy Fallon - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Jimmy Fallon")
2. Bob Newhart - The Big Bang Theory (episode: "The Proton Transmogrification")
3. Nathan Lane - Modern Family (episode: "The Wedding, Part 2")
4. Steve Buscemi - Portlandia (episode: "Celery")
5. Louis CK - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Louis CK")
6. Gary Cole - Veep (episode: "Crate")
Fallon and Newhart definitely have the best episodes, with Lane coming in close behind in a true scene-stealing performance. Buscemi's performance is good, but not great, with CK and Cole having okay episodes. I personally think the race is down to the top three. Fallon gives a great comedic performance, playing multiple characters and showing off a new side in every skit. Newhart is a beloved actor giving a unique performance in a role that has already won him an Emmy. Lane is a scene-stealer that should have voters laughing out loud.
Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Gary Cole - Veep
5. Steve Buscemi - Portlandia
4. Louis CK - Saturday Night Live
3. Nathan Lane - Modern Family
2. Bob Newhart - The Big Bang Theory
1. Jimmy Fallon - Saturday Night Live
I'm predicting Fallon for the win. He has a lot of buzz thanks to "The Tonight Show" gig, and his episode is the best showcase of the nominees. Newhart is a previous winner, yes, but a lot of that might have to do with the fact that Emmys wanted to give him an award since he is a celebrated television actor who had previously never won an Emmy. If he wins again this year, it's proof that the Emmys just really enjoy his performance on the show. However, this episode isn't Newhart's strongest appearance on "TBBT" this season (his appearance earlier in the season was much funnier, but did lack the emotional impact that this episode provides). Still, his character has a big influence over the tone of this episode that strikes heartstrings the other nominees cannot. Nathan Lane could definitely trump these two if voters are looking to reward a laugh-out-loud, true comedic performance. This is a perfect example of loud, sarcastic, over-the-top acting, but the Emmys haven't rewarded that kind of performance here in a while. Still, tides can change. CK definitely has name recognition going for him; if voters had actually watched his episode of "SNL" before voting for him to be a nominee, they'd see that he probably isn't worthy this year. Still, the Emmys just love this guy, and that alone can earn him votes. "Portlandia" is unestablished in the acting categories, and while another variety series, "SNL," has had immense success in these categories, their hosts dominate episodes. Buscemi doesn't exactly dominate, and combined with the lack of a track record for "Portlandia," I don't think Buscemi will win the trophy. Finally, although Cole is well respected and has a shot at an Emmy for the first time in his lengthy career, I don't see him getting a win based on that alone. Even last year, Newhart had a lot of buzz, a good performance, and he was much more overdue for an Emmy. Cole's performance is the weakest of the bunch, and I don't see the desire to award "Veep" being enough for Cole to win. This race is definitely Fallon v. Newhart, with Lane as the dark horse.
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