State of the Race (Emmys): July 24th

Here is part two of this week's "State of the Race" featuring the comedy guest acting, writing, and directing categories. Next week, I'll be covering the drama categories and beginning individual category rundowns including tape analysis! But for now, here's part two of the comedy categories "State of the Race":

Best Comedy Guest Actor

1. Jimmy Fallon – Saturday Night Live

2. Bob Newhart – The Big Bang Theory

3. Nathan Lane – Modern Family

4. Louis CK – Saturday Night Live

5. Gary Cole – Veep

6. Steve Buscemi – Portlandia

This one is a fun battle between an old comedic legend and the hottest one of the moment. Bob Newhart is the reigning winner here, winning his first ever Emmy last year for his appearance on "The Big Bang Theory." This year, he's nominated again after appearing twice more this season. There's obviously still some Newhart love in Emmy voters hearts since they sometimes reward performances and move on the following year despite the actor's appearance, but they've nominated Newhart again. Could another Emmy be brewing? Or was last year's win more of a makeup for snubbing Newhart throughout his legendary career? Indeed, you might remember that when he presented at the Emmys last year and co-presenter (and "TBBT" co-star) Jim Parsons mentioned Newhart had won his first Emmy ever, the crowd gave him a standing ovation. The award might've been more of a "thanks for your legendary career, here's an Emmy finally" kind of deal than an actual award of performance. That's not to discredit the performance, I actually prefer Newhart's appearances this season to the one that got him the Emmy. And if more voters think like me, that might indicate a second win for this character. However, he's got major competition in Jimmy Fallon, who has also won this award for the same show he's nominated for this year, "Saturday Night Live." This time around, Fallon's star is bigger as he's now the prolific host of "The Tonight Show" and arguably one of the most famous comedians around. Additionally, he has another knockout episode that could easily win him the Emmy. This award could probably go in either actor's favor, but I think Fallon will win and add the award as another milestone in an already fantastic year. Still, an upset could brew below. Nathan Lane has been nominated three times now for his "Modern Family" role, but this is arguably the best the character has ever been. As a crazed wedding planner, Lane got to shine brighter than ever this year and had many laugh-out-loud moments this season. That overdue status added could make him an upset in this category. Louis CK is nominated again for hosting "Saturday Night Live," but this appears to be more of a case of name-checking because his episode is really nothing special, so he won't make it to the podium. Gary Cole is just fine on "Veep," but not as impressive as his other nominated co-stars, and in an understated (and sometimes very small) role, he doesn't have the winning formula. Finally, Steve Buscemi racked up a surprise nomination, but with voters really only embracing "Portlandia" this year and an unproven track record for this type of show, I can't pull the trigger on a win just yet.

Best Comedy Guest Actress

1. Uzo Aduba – Orange Is the New Black

2. Laverne Cox – Orange Is the New Black

3. Joan Cusack – Shameless

4. Melissa McCarthy – Saturday Night Live

5. Natasha Lyonne – Orange Is the New Black

6. Tina Fey – Saturday Night Live

Wow, talk about a dead heat. This is going to be a fun one to predict. Let's start with the three "OITNB" ladies: Uzo Aduba has the buzz on her side, Laverne Cox has history and compassion, and Natasha Lyonne has underdog status. Aduba is arguably the show's breakout star and her performance is scene-stealing without being too over-the-top and overbearing. Everyone loves Crazy Eyes and if voters are watching this show, they'll love her too and the award could easily be hers. But not so fast; Cox has the recipe for a history-making win. She is the first-ever transgender nominee at the Emmys, and could make that into a first-ever transgender win. That'd be a huge landmark in Emmy history, especially in an era of rewarding more LGBT characters/actors than ever before, and they might reward themselves by giving Cox the hardware. Additionally, Cox's performance has the most emotional depth of any other nominee, as she goes through her transformation on-screen and deals with the repercussions. That's something that'll stick with voters. Finally, Lyonne was the biggest surprise to see on this list out of the three "OITNB" ladies, but it's a very deserving nominee. Lyonne is hysterical on the show, and she gets a good balance of laughs and heart, often being the misunderstood voice of reason. If voters want to find a balance between Aduba's wild character and Cox's emotional portrayal, Lyonne's performance of Nicky could be the answer. But alas, there are three other nominees with a shot at gold. Two of them are previously-nominated "SNL" hosts: Tina Fey and Melissa McCarthy. Fey is a previous winner here from her Sarah Palin-impersonating days, and she is of course an Emmy favorite, thanks to "30 Rock." She hosted an okay episode of "SNL," and she's nominated again kind of for the same reason Louis CK got nominated for hosting "SNL." She's least likely to win of all the nominees. McCarthy stands a much better chance, since she has a much stronger episode than Fey. However, many of her characters seem repetitive and capitalize on her ability to play crazy goofballs (which is fine, but doesn't really help with the range Emmy voters look for). Still, McCarthy should've won this award for her last hosting effort, so voters could give it to her for that alone. Plus, there's just no denying she's funny. Finally, we have the dark horse of the race, Joan Cusack. Cusack was the only "Shameless" nominee in the show's run before it moved to the comedy races, and she made the move from Drama Guest Actress to Comedy Guest Actress seamlessly. This especially helps Cusack because her character definitely provides more of the comedic elements of "Shameless" with her neurotic habits and over-the-top ideas. She's crazy, but shows emotion and elicits empathy, a perfect Emmy combo. She's never won, so she's overdue and the category switch might be the thing that snatches the Emmy for her. Like I said, this is a crazy race and almost any of these ladies could win.

Best Writing for a Comedy Series

1. “So Did the Fat Lady” for Louie

2. “I Wasn’t Ready” for Orange Is the New Black

3. “Special Relationship” for Veep

4. “Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficency” for Silicon Valley

5. “Episode 305” for Episodes

With no clear frontrunner, this race could be anyone's. Right now, it looks to be a race between the category veteran and the hot newcomer. "Louie" didn't have a very loud season, but one episode that did make waves was "So Did the Fat Lady," a brutally honest portrayal of weight discrimination in the dating world. That most of this comes from a woman rather than Louie himself is pretty impressive, and an episode-ending eight minute monologue that puts it all out there is compelling stuff. It's a tough subject, but Louis CK is the guy to make it work. On the flip side, "OITNB" is nominated for its pilot episode, which serves as a great introduction to the series and gets viewers interested in the show from the start. The writing categories have been good to pilots, but not as nice as the directing categories. Still, if "OITNB" love is loud, it can prevail here. "Veep" garnered its first nomination in the writing races this year, and with that as its strongest tool minus Julia Louis-Dreyfus, it could easily take a win here. However, the episode submitted is definitely not their strongest episode of the year. If an episode like "The Choice," "Alicia," "Debate," or "Crate" had been submitted and nominated, this might be a whole different race. However, "Special Relationship" is a great episode, but not "Veep"'s strongest. On the reverse, "Silicon Valley" did submit its strongest episode in addition to the weaker pilot, but the writers rightly nominated the better episode. Still, better in "Silicon Valley" terms doesn't mean a lot, so unless the show has a lot of surprise adoration, it probably can't win here. Finally, "Episodes" returns for its third nomination in the writing races as a  show flying under the radar. Personally, I don't get the buzz about the show, but it might be considered the most overdue show in the race and surprise with a win, but I don't think it's strong enough to claim a victory.

Best Directing for a Comedy Series

1. “Las Vegas” for Modern Family

2. “Lesbian Request Denied” for Orange Is the New Black

3. “Elevator (Part 6)” for Louie

4. “100” for Glee

5. “Minimum Viable Product” for Silicon Valley

6. “Episode 309” for Episodes

For a category that has rewarded so many pilot episodes over the past few years (7 of the past 14 victories), there is only one pilot nominated here, but two new series. "Silicon Valley" is nominated for its first episode, although that isn't very unforgivable because the directing in the first episode isn't any better than the directing in another episode. However, it is interesting to note that "OITNB" did not get nominated for it's pilot episode, but rather the third episode of the season, which was directed by Jodie Foster, who is kind of famous, ya know? Of the two new series, "OITNB" is the likelier to win with a bigger name in its director, more love for the show, plus it is a bit showier with flashbacks and merging shots. However, it'll have to trump the three-time defending champion in this race, "Modern Family." This year, the show is nominated for "Las Vegas," directed by last year's champion, Gail Mancuso. I think this episode is more flashy than her win last year, so she can easily win this award. The last ten minutes of the episode are manic with many cuts and merging storylines, but it is handled expertly so it doesn't get confusing for the audience. This is a "Modern Family" win I would definitely support. "Louie" grabs another nomination, but without having seen the episode yet, I can't judge too much. Paris Barclay is the President of the Directors Guild of America, so there is probably some pressure to nominate him when he is eligible, which probably explains why he's grabbed a second consecutive nomination for "Glee," a show the Emmys have moved on from. Still, his stature in the community and the fact that it's probably one of the few standout episodes of this season means he could snatch a victory. Finally, it's the same old with "Episodes," although this is their first directing nomination. Is support spreading for this show that seemingly no one watches? Could that boost a victory? Eh...probably not.