"State of the Race" (Emmys): July 22nd

Love 'em or hate 'em, this year's Emmy nominations have arrived, and the race can really begin! Now that we've got all six (or five) nominees in each race, it's really time to analyze this year's big races. In today's edition, I'll be talking about the major comedy races, and I'll return later this week to look at the minor comedy categories, so let's get started.


Best Comedy Series

1. Orange Is the New Black

2. Veep

3. Modern Family

4. The Big Bang Theory

5. Louie

6. Silicon Valley

This is going to be a big race, ladies and gentlemen. While the buzz was on the side of "Modern Family" and "Veep" pre-nominations, things have changed now as "Orange Is the New Black" takes my #1 spot. It has the most nominations of any comedy series this year (12 total), and definitely overperformed in major categories, getting five actresses nominated across three categories, as well as crucial writing and directing nominations. The buzz is certainly on the show's side; the second season premiered as voting was beginning, which probably had a big impact (Netflix isn't stupid, you guys), so "OITNB" is getting a lot of buzz at the moment. It's very similar to when "Breaking Bad" aired its final season during the late summer (aka Emmy season), which increased its buzz and definitely played a factor into the show's win for its penultimate season. Something very similar could happen here, but "OITNB" has strong competitors. "Veep" had a big bump in nominations this year, including a new acting nomination to join its three from last year, and its first writing nomination. "Veep" definitely has the critical adoration and is honestly just plain funny, whereas "OITNB" is a bit dramatic with more of a focus on storytelling. They aren't similar shows by any means, but they're fierce competitors for the title. But this is no two-horse race; "Modern Family" is the defending champion here and is actually coming off of a great season (general consensus is that the show earned its win in seasons one and two, but not so much the past two years). There's definitely "Modern Family" fatigue as evidenced by only half of the adult ensemble garnering nominations for the first time in the show's run. A win here would be five for "Modern Family," tying the record with "Fraiser" for most wins for a comedy series. Is it deserving of such a title? Could new, younger, and much buzzier shows like "OITNB" or "Veep" take the title away? I think the race is definitely down to these three shows. The others are still in the race, but their odds aren't as great. "The Big Bang Theory" is the highest-rated scripted show on television and is coming off a great season, and many people think it could pull off a win in the vein of "Friends" winning the award in its eighth season, which I thought might've been true before "OITNB" entered the comedy races and "Modern Family" had a strong season. "TBBT" is a broad hit, an ensemble piece that the Emmys could embrace, but there is stronger competition that'll hold it down. "Louie" was in the conversation for a win last year, but buzz has died down this year, and I don't see the show winning here (which is generally how I've always felt about "Louie"). Finally, "Silicon Valley" should be happy with the nomination because they'll have to submit six episodes for their reel (basically, their whole season minus two episodes), and they just don't have six killer episodes. They really only have one great episode (that'd be their season finale), but maybe that's an indication that this is a show to watch out for...next year.


Best Comedy Actor

1. Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory

2. Louis CK – Louie

3. William H. Macy – Shameless

4. Ricky Gervais – Derek

5. Matt LeBlanc – Episodes

6. Don Cheadle – House of Lies

Here's the thing -- Jim Parsons could so easily win a fourth Emmy given this competition, but will they give him that honor for a fourth time? That question will define the race, since behind Parsons, no one really stands out in a unique way, kind of making this an unpredictable race, and one that could result in a surprising (maybe even undeserving) winner. Louis CK is a perennial nominee here, but I've said this since the beginning -- he's not the kind of guy to win an Emmy for acting, but rather directing or writing (as has been the case in years past). That could potentially change in a weak year like this, but then again, Louie's buzz isn't as strong as it has been in previous years. William H. Macy is a big question mark because while he is turning in a fantastic performance on "Shameless," it is primarily dramatic. This is where we'll see how "Shameless" converting from drama to comedy affects its chances of winning awards. Macy could easily be seen as giving the best performance in this category, regardless of genre, but since it's a comedy category, are voters likely to go for a dramatic performance in a comedic category? Ricky Gervais, one of the big surprises of nomination day, is another question mark as he's an Emmy favorite and previous winner, but no one knows his show at all. His nomination is purely name-checking, but if voters love Gervais, he could surprise anyway. Matt LeBlanc's nomination is groan-inducing, but it's worth noting that "Episodes" also garnered writing and directing nominations, so voters are paying attention to the show. He's on his third nomination now, so voters might think it's time to give him the hardware. The same might not be said of Don Cheadle, whose show doesn't get love anywhere else, so he's probably not a real contender. This might be an interesting race, and episode submissions for key contenders are going to make a real impact here.


Best Comedy Actress

1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep

2. Amy Poehler – Parks and Recreation

3. Taylor Schilling – Orange Is the New Black

4. Lena Dunham – Girls

5. Melissa McCarthy – Mike and Moly

6. Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie

This race looks like it should easily go to Julia Louis-Dreyfus. Let's look at why that is: she's Julia Louis-Dreyfus....that's it. Kidding! But really, this is JLD's Emmy to lose. Yes, she's already won twice for "Veep", but she's that good and she's only getting better. In addition, "Veep" is now more popular with Emmy voters than in its previous two seasons, and there aren't many contenders in this race that are really hot on her heels. Yes, she lost to Amy Poehler at the Golden Globes but 1) it's the Golden Globes and 2) remember who hosted that show? Exactly. That said, Poehler is so overdue for an Emmy for "Parks and Recreation" (I personally thought she should've won the year JLD got her first victory for "Veep"), so that could work in her favor, but she didn't have an absolutely unstoppable season. Taylor Schilling is the lead on "OITNB," technically, although it is certainly more of an ensemble show. Schilling is still one of the more recognizable names on the show, but the question here is whether her more dramatic performance can garner a trophy for Best Actress in a Comedy Series. If voters embrace that nuanced performance and "OITNB" in general, she's a threat. Lena Dunham also has not won an Emmy, which is kind of surprising, and with strong competition like this, her odds aren't getting better. Still, she was easily one of the best parts of this season of "Girls," and voters looking to reward the show after it was snubbed for Best Comedy Series and writing/directing races could vote for her here. Melissa McCarthy, a previous winner here, is back after being snubbed last year, which is a bit of a head scratcher, but I don't think her presence will make much of a difference. Yes, "Mike and Molly" revamped itself this year to cater to the brass humor McCarthy is well known for now, but I think she's likelier to win for her guest hosting stint on "Saturday Night Live." Finally, Edie Falco's show has not had a lot of buzz this year (the most I've heard relating to "Nurse Jackie" is Meritt Wever's infamous upset last year), so until I see her episode, I don't see her anywhere close to the trophy.


Best Comedy Supporting Actor

1. Tony Hale – Veep

2. Andre Braugher – Brooklyn Nine-Nine

3. Jesse Tyler Ferguson – Modern Family

4. Ty Burrell – Modern Family

5. Adam Driver – Girls

6. Fred Armisen - Portlandia

Tony Hale, as the previous winner, has the upper hand, especially in a field deprived of "Modern Family" saturation. As I said above, "Veep" is more popular than ever and audiences love his character, Gary. The tapes of his other contenders could knock him out of the top spot, but for now, I'm keeping him there. Additionally, I have Andre Braugher second in a move that has nothing to do with tapes, but more that he is Andre Braugher and the Emmys love him. They were willing to snub his show in Best Comedy Series and his funnier co-star Andy Samberg in Best Actor, but they went for the much more subtle character Braugher plays, so they just love the guy. If he has a good tape, that could make all the difference. Jesse Tyler Ferguson had a great season on "Modern Family" this year, including a very juicy end-of-season arc leading up to his wedding and a falling out with his disapproving father. In addition, of the nominated "MF" actors, he's the only one that has not won an Emmy for the show yet. If Emmy voters still want to reward "Modern Family," this is the place to do it. Still, Ferguson's co-star Ty Burrell still brings the funny and is the show's most iconic character, and in a year with no certain frontrunner, the Emmys could go back to him for his still-solid performance. Adam Driver is the standout of season three of "Girls," so I was glad to see him nominated here again. He actually had a story this year, but the character of Adam is polarizing and not laugh-out-loud funny, and his strongest moments are dramatic. There are no contenders like that in this race, which might work in Driver's favor, but it'd take a lot for him to win this award. Finally, I have Fred Armisen in last place because I don't know what to expect from Emmy voters. This nomination came out of absolutely nowhere and I can't say if it's deserved or if it can win an Emmy. We'll have to watch the tape for him to see if he can rank higher...


Best Comedy Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney – Mom

2. Kate Mulgrew – Orange Is the New Black

3. Mayim Bialik – The Big Bang Theory

4. Julie Bowen – Modern Family

5. Anna Chlumsky – Veep

6. Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live

The key in this race was watching to make sure Allison Janney and Kate Mulgrew got their nominations. Now, it gets interesting. A lot of people think Janney will win this in a cakewalk, and it's surely possible. She is downright hysterical on "Mom," and Emmy voters adore her, so her scene-stealing performance is worthy of an Emmy, no doubt. However, on a different but parallel note, Mulgrew's performance has range that Janney lacks. Mulgrew is funny, sympathetic, conniving, cold...all in all, it's got everything, and range wins Emmys. With the right balance of laughs and drama, Mulgrew is a very worthy competitor to Janney. It's really going to be a matter of which type of performance voters appreciate this year. Then there are the other competitors...Bialik is back for a third nomination, so she might be seen as overdue, and if voters cannot choose between Janney and Mulgrew, Bialik might be a happy medium, as her character brings the funny, but is very sympathetic. Bowen is kind of old news in this category, I think, and she's won this category twice. In addition, she had so little to do this season so it might be telling that voters still nominated her and snubbed her co-star when she really had minimal story this year. Speaking of minimal story, Anna Chlumsky has been playing second fiddle to Julia Louis-Dreyfus and even some other supporting actors, but she plays the straight man, which is difficult and requires delicate balance on a show like "Veep." However, she just wasn't a huge presence to challenge for the win. When you think about the highlights of this season, Chlumsky doesn't appear to be among the best parts of this season, but weirder things have happened. Finally, much like Fred Armisen, Kate McKinnon was a surprise nominee and I don't know how the Emmys will embrace her. Yes, other "SNL" ladies have been nominated here, but they were much bigger, established stars in Kristen Wiig and Amy Poehler. McKinnon is only coming off her second season, but she is the best part of the "SNL" ensemble. Still, she has potential to be nominated here for years to come if she maintains her status, but for now, voters might be content with her nomination.