In this installment of the Emmy Race Analysis, we'll be looking at the Guest Actress in a Comedy race, where half of the nominees hail from the same show, tapes overlap, and voter preference over comedic vs. dramatic will certainly determine the winner. But first, the nominees and their submitted tapes...
Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
Uzo Aduba - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
Laverne Cox - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
Joan Cusack - Shameless (episode: "Liver, I Hardly Know Her")
Tina Fey - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Tina Fey")
Natasha Lyonne - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "WAC Pack")
Melissa McCarthy - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Melissa McCarthy")
There is something to be noted about the episode submission process. In some categories, there are situations where more than one actor from a show is nominated in a single category. As a result, voters sometimes watch multiple episodes of the same show when voting in a single category. As a result, the nominated actors from the same show in that category appear in each other's episodes, giving what some may call an unfair advantage. In the heyday of "Modern Family"'s Emmy success, all four men of the adult ensemble (Ty Burrell, Eric Stonestreet, Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Ed O'Neill) were nominated, so each actor had their own tape, plus three others. Although their own submitted episode was specifically theirs, it certainly helped if they made an impact in their co-star's tapes as well. For example, when Ty Burrell won his Emmy for season two of "Modern Family," he submitted a great episode for himself, but also had equally good performances in his co-star's episodes that certainly helped voters realize he was the most deserving nominee. Is it fair that stars who have co-stars nominated get multiple chances to make an impression? Maybe not. But does it make a difference? I'd say yes.
This year, with "Modern Family" only having two men nominated in Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series, another series took the category dominance award, with "Orange Is the New Black" taking up half of the six nominees for Guest Actress in a Comedy Series. However, in a rare instance, two of the "OITNB" ladies in this category actually submitted the same episode. This, however, is not a fault of their own, but rather a result of the Emmy voting system. Nominated actors in the lead and supporting categories submit episodes
after they have been nominated, but guest actors must submit episodes for consideration prior to nomination voting. In this case, co-stars from each other's shows cannot rely on each other to submit episodes that make each other look good, but rather focus on themselves. In this case, Uzo Aduba and Laverne Cox both submitted the episode "Lesbian Request Denied," which is each actress' strongest episode of season one. By a stroke of luck, they were both nominated (I only predicted Aduba to get nominated from "OITNB" in this category), and they cannot change their submission, so each woman is getting analyzed for the same episode. So which actress shines brightest in this episode? That depends certainly on who you ask. "OITNB" episodes are structured to include flashbacks, and this episode highlights flashbacks of Cox's character and her transformation from a man to a woman. It's a baity storyline that allows raw emotion and challenging acting obstacles on Cox's behalf. It's not a particularly funny performance, but the performance sticks with you. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Aduba is hysterical in this episode. Her screen time isn't as lengthy as Cox's, but when she's on-screen, she is unstoppable. She has one memorable scene after another (for "OITNB" fans: this episode alone contains 1. "chocolate and vanilla swirl," 2. "I threw my pie for you," and 3. peeing outside Piper's bunk) and is truly laugh-out-loud funny in all of her appearances. Aduba's character, Crazy Eyes, was the breakout character of the show's first season, and although she didn't get an episode dedicated to herself, this was the closest thing to a showcase for her. It just so happened to also be Cox's showcase episode, so we're in a unique predicament with two actresses submitting the same episode. The question is which performance will voters prefer: the more dramatic but larger and emotionally effective showcase for Cox or the show-stopping, hysterically outrageous, but much shorter performance from Aduba?
Joan Cusack's show, "Shameless," made the switch from drama to comedy categories this year, and as a result, she retains her nomination in the guest acting categories, but now as a comedic actress. Thankfully, this does wonders for Cusack because her character has always been comedic on a show that rides the boundary from time to time. When competing in the dramatic categories, Cusack always was a quirky nominee, with her performances always being more obviously comedic than dramatic, but now she fits right in. This could definitely propel her to a win, especially now that she's on her fourth nomination for "Shameless." Her episode is great, in which she plays a manic bride-to-be who arranges an underground liver transplant for her barely conscious soon-to-be husband (yep, you read that right). It's about as ridiculous as it sounds, and only an actress like Cusack could pull of the utter insanity of it all while retaining moments of empathy for her character and delivering some killer one-liners. To call Cusack the dark horse in this race would be putting it lightly; she is fully in this for the win. Tina Fey hosted the season premiere of "SNL," and while she is always delightful, there was not a whole lot that was memorable about this appearance, especially weighed against Fey's previous victory in this category for her uncanny impersonation of Sarah Palin. Yes, that was one skit and now she has a whole episode, but nothing is as memorable as that performance. The highlight is probably the spoof of the comedy series "Girls" in which Fey plays a new girl named Blerta from Albania, but beyond that, Fey doesn't shine brighter than some of the other cast members. She's good, yes, but it feels like she's just one of the regular cast members, and that's probably because she used to be one of them. I just don't see Fey winning an Emmy for a performance that's good, but not great.
Referring back to the "OITNB" situation, Natasha Lyonne rounds out the trio from the series nominated in this category, but her presence does less for Cox and Aduba than their tape does for her. Neither episode really helps the actresses out, because while "Lesbian Request Denied" puts a focus on Cox and Aduba, they are barely present in Lyonne's tape, "WAC Pack." This is where things get interesting: Cox gets a mostly dramatic story, whereas Aduba is all about the laughs. Lyonne falls somewhere in between. She gets very funny lines, but her story also elicits empathy from the audience and allows for some more dramatic moments. If voters are torn between Cox and Aduba, Lyonne might end up being a happy medium. The focus on the "OITNB" ladies might be on Cox and Aduba, but Lyonne cold be a surprise winner. Finally, Melissa McCarthy is nominated again for hosting "SNL," but as I've said before, her appearance this time, while funny, is not as good as her last stint, which I really thought she'd win an Emmy for. That did not happen, which makes me doubt that a weaker episode like this could do the trick. Yes, stranger things have happened, but McCarthy's episode puts a focus on her strength in playing weirdos, and that doesn't give a lot of room for range, which voters look for. Yes, she can definitely still win because she is funny, even hysterical at points in this episode, but she's got stronger competitors.
Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Laverne Cox - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
2. Uzo Aduba - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
3. Joan Cusack - Shameless (episode: "Liver, I Hardly Know Her")
4. Melissa McCarthy - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Melissa McCarthy")
5. Natasha Lyonne - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "WAC Pack")
6. Tina Fey - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Tina Fey")
Cox delivers the overall most impressive performance, but Aduba's portrayal certainly requires a specific skill that she absolutely nails, so that cannot be discredited. Cusack is nuts in her tape, but she gets the all-important range and empathy. McCarthy is very funny, but doesn't travel too far out of her comfort zone. Lyonne is a dark horse, bringing in an understated but funny performance. Fey has the weakest tape of all the nominees.
Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Tina Fey - Saturday Night Live
5. Natasha Lyonne - Orange Is the New Black
4. Melissa McCarthy - Saturday Night Live
3. Joan Cusack - Shameless
2. Laverne Cox - Orange Is the New Black
1. Uzo Aduba - Orange Is the New Black
The only one I would say has close to no chance of winning is Fey. It's not like she's in dire need of an Emmy win, her tape is just okay, and the competition is honestly just too strong. Any of the rest of the five, though, I can see winning. Lyonne is the dark horse that we really should be watching out for, but I can't rank her any higher because her competitors are just too strong. Still, she can definitely win this. She has the right balance of range and empathy, plus she's downright funny. McCarthy is great in her episode, and with voters nominating her again this year for "Mike and Molly" in the Lead Actress in a Comedy Series category, it's possible that Emmy voters are falling back in love with her. Cusack is finally where she belongs, and she can be welcomed to the comedy categories with a win. She's the most overdue of all the contestants, has a very baity storyline, and she's a well-respected actress. But interestingly enough, this race comes down to the two "OITNB" ladies with the same tape. Cox's win would be historical: she's already the first transgender nominated for an Emmy, and a victory would make her the first transgender winner. She's got a tape that almost has it all, including a transformation, raw emotion, laughs, and a central focus. Her largest obstacle, though, and the one that I think will win, is her co-star Aduba. The Emmy voters clearly loved "OITNB," and anyone that watched the first season instantly loved Aduba's performance as Crazy Eyes. She's the most recognizable character from the show, she delivered memorable moments in almost every episode she appeared, and she's portrayed by a fresh actress in her first major role. It's a story that seems tailor made for an Emmy win, and I think her flashier moments will overall lead to a victory in this category.
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