One of the tightest race's of next Monday's Emmy ceremony will be Supporting Actor in a Drama Series, with three major contenders for the title and dark horse nominees that could pull off a major upset victory. Read on to see who has the best shot of walking away with the gold...
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jim Carter - Downton Abbey (episode: "Episode 3.1")
Josh Charles - The Good Wife (episode: "Hitting the Fan")
Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones (episode: "The Laws of God and Men")
Mandy Patinkin - Homeland (episode: "Geronition")
Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad (episode: "Confessions")
Jon Voight - Ray Donovan (episode: "Fite Nite")
Carter is back for a third time in this category with a tape twice as long as his competitors. However, for a show like "Downton Abbey," that is never an automatic benefit. Because of the show's large ensemble, some characters disappear for long periods of time. That doesn't really happen to Carter in this tape, but there are many instances where his appearances are short and without substance. He interacts with many different characters, but there are very few "big" scenes for the character. He is a part of multiple story arcs, some easier to understand than others, but he doesn't make a big splash, and while he's just fine in this episode, I don't think it's strong enough considering the killer competition. Charles made a resurgence in the category this year, returning for a nomination after his only previous notice here in 2011. Three years later, his return coincides with a great year for his show, "The Good Wife." Of course, Charles has a lot to do with the show's big year. (
SPOILERS) Although he was garnering great reviews for the season's major story arc of Julianna Margulies' Alicia leaving Charles' Will's law firm to start her own, buzz for Charles increased when his character was shot and killed halfway through the season. The sudden passing of (arguably) the show's second lead was a huge water cooler moment for the show, which already was having a huge season, and the perfect storm culminated for Charles' nomination here. However, rather than picking the episode where he is killed, Charles thankfully submitted his best episode of the season, the much-heralded "Hitting the Fan." An episode moving 100 mph, "Hitting the Fan" is a great highlight reel for Charles as he gets a number of great moments. He begins the episode confronting Alicia by yelling at her, clearing her desk with his bare hands, and then firing her. The momentum doesn't stop, and the episode, although allowing the entire ensemble to shine, is centered around the storm Charles brews up. Heck, he even gets a few moments of comic relief. This episode shows Charles' Will coming to life, finally, and breaking out of a shell we never knew existed. He has screentime, impact, and even a little bit of empathy if audiences can understand his motivations for being betrayed professionally by a woman he worked with, but also was in love with. This is Charles' last time to win for "The Good Wife," and combined with a great performance and big buzz, this could be his year. He's got a big competitor in Dinklage, a previous winner whose victory came during Charles' last nomination. They meet again, and this time, Dinklage has a big tape to match Charles'. Dinklage's character Tyrion spent much of the fourth season of "Game of Thrones" locked up in prison, but this episode is easily his highlight of the season. After being put on trial for murder, Dinklage basically dissolves in front of the audience as he is set up in the courtroom through faulty testimony from unreliable witnesses, capped off by a string of lies by his former lover. He looks so low and defeated, realizing he cannot win the trial, and in a last minute reversal, he turns his depression into anger as he launches into a tirade against not only his father, but all of the townspeople that have gathered for his trial, finally releasing four seasons' worth of anger about being discriminated against and mistreated by his family, and being blamed for his mother's death. He falsely confesses to murder to appease his father and tells the crowd he would murder again and again. It's a fiery speech and Dinklage sells it completely. He is terrifying, yet the audience feels some kind of pride for him as he finally confronts the problems that have haunted him during the show's run. This is one big moment that comes at the end of the episode, so he has impact for sure. The question, of course, will be if voters think the one moment is big enough (and good enough) to warrant a second Emmy.
Patinkin (along with co-star Claire Danes) was able to survive the Emmys' general lack of acknowledgement of the third season of "Homeland," and that's good considering Patinkin continued being a highlight of the show. His submission episode shows why Saul is such an intriguing character as he interrogates a high-ranking Iranian official and converts him to be a spy for America, all while balancing his relationship with his faltering wife and tip-toeing around his disapproving superiors. He has a few great moments and it's overall a very strong episode for Patinkin. He has very strong competition, and since general regard for "Homeland" has decreased, it will be an uphill battle to win, but he's more than deserving with this episode. Through all of the story details, it is obvious that this is really just the story of a man whose career is taking over his life, and the struggles he'll go through to make sure that a job doesn't sink his entire life. Although most people can't relate to a CIA job, many can definitely relate to work-related stress bleeding into real life, so Patinkin can earn some empathy votes there. He is definitely a dark horse in this race. Paul, a winner here in 2010 and 2012 can win his final Emmy for "Breaking Bad" with an episode that, as seems to be a common factor in this year's competitors, finds him finally cracking. Paul doesn't get a lot to play with in the beginning of the episode, but the episode's final moments are when we see him become completely unhinged, collapsing as the workings of his boss finally crash in on him and cause him to snap. He goes completely insane, ending the episode crashing into his partner's front yard and pouring a gasoline tank inside the house. Those final episodes make this episode stand out for Paul, since he didn't get many other options during the show's final season. It's a good performance in the beginning, but he doesn't have that much impact. The impact comes in the show's final moments when he physically attacks his lawyer and goes on an angry rage preparing to set his boss' house on fire. Teeth gritted, tears in his eyes...this is a man on a mission, and as an audience member, we're worried what his next move will be. Could Paul win a third Emmy with this tape? It's truly possible. We also cannot forget that he's liked by the Emmys and his show is competing for the last time, so voters might give it to him for the sake of never being able to reward him again. Finally, Voight shows up in the race, trying to prove that he wasn't just a simple name-check. This episode gives some proof that that might not be the case. He gets a storyline that has him taken hostage, but the big moments come when he returns back to his family and friends, but he doesn't get any big scenes that have a lot of impact, and while he's still pretty good throughout the episode, he never does anything that I think would have voters in awe. Considering the big competition in this race, it would be a true shock to see Voight as the one walking away with this award. Still, he's a veteran and in a race with multiple frontrunners, it is always possible that an unexpected choice comes through with the victory.
Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones (episode: "The Laws of God and Men")
2. Josh Charles - The Good Wife (episode: "Hitting the Fan")
3. Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad (episode: "Confessions")
4. Mandy Patinkin - Homeland (episode: "Geronition")
5. Jon Voight - Ray Donovan (episode: "Fite Nite")
6. Jim Carter - Downton Abbey (episode: "Episode 4.1")
There really isn't a bad submission in this bunch. Among all of these performances, Carter and Voight's are the most pedestrian, never giving them big moments or impact that their fellow nominees have in spades. Dinklage is heartbreaking in his submission with a huge moment that leaves major impact. Charles anchors his episode with range, memorable moments, but his impact really comes at the beginning of the episode, which might hurt his chances. His final scene doesn't have the impact that his initial, desk-swiping confrontation does. Paul has a reverse effect, with his impact coming at the end of the episode, but he really just turns angry with physical violence, and it might be a case of too little, too late. That's not to say it's not a winning tape. I think either of those tapes could lead to a winner. I even wouldn't go as far as saying we can count out Patinkin, because he's got a great episode that really gives him a great showcase as a supporting actor on the show. With multiple storylines, relatability, and impact, he needs to be watched out for on Monday.
Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Jim Carter - Downton Abbey
5. Jon Voight - Ray Donovan
4. Mandy Patinkin - Homeland
3. Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad
2. Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones
1. Josh Charles - The Good Wife
This is, I believe, the hardest category of the night to predict. I'll count out Carter and Voight right away. With competition this strong, you need to be outstanding to win, and they just aren't. Patinkin could probably win in a weaker year, but his competition is just too strong, although he is certainly an outside shot in this race. With the top three, you could honestly put them in any order and it would be justifiable. For now, I have Paul in third because I didn't think his tape was that great and I'm not sure how voters will react to him essentially just going over-the-top and not showing any dynamic or range. He's already won twice, so voters might decide he doesn't need a third trophy. That's really never stopped them before, though. Dinklage could maybe have a tighter grip on the trophy if his tape didn't revolve around a single moment. His absence until the halfway mark of the episode is matched with mainly reaction shots, but his final monologue is powerful and attention-grabbing, a truly great moment of television, so it would be interesting to see if that is the performance that wins. I think some voters will love it and rank it high on their ballot, with others putting it further down because it is only a scene that lasts a few minutes as opposed to an episode-long great performance. For that reason, I'm inclined to predict Charles for the win. This, of course, could all be for selfish reasons. But I think voters will recognize that this is their last opportunity to reward Charles, and for a performance that is dynamic, powerful, and empathetic. It also stands true that a "TGW" actress has won an Emmy every year the show has been on the year, and while, yes, Charles isn't an actress, he can redefine that rule and become the show's first male winner. This prediction can certainly change before showtime, but for now, I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict Charles.
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