Emmy Race Analysis: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

In today's installment of Emmy Race Analysis, we're looking the Supporting Actor in a Comedy category, which is seeing some major turnover and welcoming some new contenders that could shake up the winner's circle. Let's examine their submission tapes and chances of winning below...

NOTE: There are mild episode spoilers, so if you are in the process of watching any of these series or do not want to be spoiled about character arcs, episode details, etc., proceed with caution.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Fred Armisen - Portlandia (episode: "Pull-Out King")
Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (episode: "Christmas")
Ty Burrell - Modern Family (episode: "Spring a Ding Fling")
Adam Driver - Girls (episode: "Two Plane Rides")
Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family (episode: "Message Received")
Tony Hale - Veep (episode: "Crate")

Armisen's nomination here is still very very confusing to me, and some of that may just come from my general distaste for Armisen. I didn't love him on "Saturday Night Live" although he did have some funny characters, but by the end of his run, I thought he was stale. I didn't expect a nomination for him here for his variety show, "Portlandia," but I thought I would maybe be pleasantly surprised when watching his submission. Unfortunately, this didn't do the trick at all. The way "Portlandia" is set up is that there are a few unrelated stories weaving in and out of every episode, with a focus on one main story. The main story has Armisen in drag and his female co-star, Carrie Brownstein, dressed up as a guy. That's really the length of the joke for Armisen's character, since the focus in the main story is really on Brownstein's character, the episode's titular "Pull-Out King." Brownstein is more impressive than Armisen, whose shtick doesn't hold up throughout the episode. If he expected dressing up in drag to get him votes, he shouldn't count on winning this award. In the smaller stories throughout the episode, he's fine, but he doesn't stand out. Not a good submission episode, especially if a large chunk of voters are unfamiliar with "Portlandia." Braugher was expected to be nominated here, but many (myself included) also thought his show, "Brooklyn Nine-Nine," would get a lot more Emmy love than it did. Instead, he is the show's only nomination, but he is an Emmy favorite, so it's not surprising to see him nominated here. With that previous Emmy status in mind, it was definitely possible that Braugher could still pull out a win even though the Emmys weren't too high on his show. Unfortunately, Braugher's submission doesn't do him many favors. On the plus side, he is involved in the story's main storyline, as opposed to a subplot, but sometimes smaller doses of his character, Captain Ray Holt, work better. In this episode, he shares most of his screentime with Andy Samberg, who gets the majority of the jokes and Braugher plays the straight man. He doesn't get a lot of laughs and overall, it's not his best showcase. With a better episode, he could've been a threat for the award, but that's not the case with this weak episode. Burrell is easily the standout cast member of "Modern Family," and it's episodes like his submission, "Spring a Ding Fling" that remind us why that is. Burrell's character, Phil, is hosting an awards ceremony for realtors and gets to fire off some funny and cheesy jokes, but his childish charm pulls it off. He gets to do an opening musical number which has multiple costume changes, including drag (which he effectively fumbles through, as opposed to Armisen). He gets some emotional moments and triumph in his final moments in the episode, when he wins Realtor of the Year and his daughter delivers the jokes he is unable to perform due to an injury (and yep, that's a moment of physical comedy). I think sometimes people underestimate Burrell because they've just come to expect greatness of him on this show, and an understated performance like this reminds people why Burrell is the "MF" standout. In this field, he could definitely pick up a second Emmy.

Driver is a rising star in Hollywood, as he is landing roles in major projects including the new "Star Wars" film. It's important to remember his character really started with his portrayal of misunderstood Adam on "Girls," a performance that was easily the highlight of the show's latest season. His submission is not his best episode of the season, but it's still good. He doesn't have a huge amount of screentime, but it's effective when he's on-screen, especially his last scene which has a big emotional impact that sticks through the end of the episode. That said, it's a largely dramatic performance. In fact, he really doesn't deliver a single joke in this episode. It's a good performance, but if you're going to give a dramatic performance an award in a comedy category, it'll need to be a great performance. If Driver had gone with an episode like "Incidentals," where he was the main focus and has some great moments, he'd be a bigger factor here. Now, he'll need to hope that an upset works out in his favor for the win. Ferguson, five years into his run on "Modern Family," had his breakout season as he faced a big storyline, preparing for his marriage and getting back into the corporate world. His episode is easily his strongest of the season as he deals with pre-wedding ceremony stress. It provides some laughs, but the episode's big moment comes toward the end when he confronts his father's discomfort with his marriage to another man. It allows a dramatic moment that audiences don't usually see on "Modern Family," and Ferguson plays it perfectly. As Mitchell, he has always faced disapproval from his father with his homosexuality, and this is the moment in the series when he finally fights back, conveniently right before his wedding. With an episode ending monologue, his character has the biggest impact. Is that one moment big enough to win him an Emmy? Well, there are a few factors to consider. One: this was a big moment for fans of the series, but voters in this category change every year, so some may not be familiar with the story. However, the moment still works even if you're just watching this episode as your first "MF" experience. Two: Ferguson is not laugh-out-loud funny on the show, and he often plays the straight man. However, because his co-star Burrell is nominated, he has the benefit of getting two tapes, and in Burrell's tape, he does get a funny storyline where he starts a new job. Burrell, however, also gets a very funny storyline where his kids play a joke and him, and his revenge (as plotted by his wife) goes horribly wrong. Both episodes help both actors, but Ferguson might be seen as more overdue. Of the three nominated cast members this year, he's the only one without a win. These factors could propel a fourth "MF" cast member to an Emmy win. But standing in his way is last year's victor, Tony Hale. Hale's win came as a surprise last year, but his scene-stealing performance as Gary is universally loved. Gary actually took a step back this season, but Hale's best episode is his submission, where Gary has a great moment with Selina when she finds out that she is going to be the next President of the United States. If you haven't seen this scene, find it on YouTube. You're guaranteed to laugh out loud. It's easily the funniest moment in any of these six episodes and Hale just knocks it out of the park. However, in the rest of the episode, Gary has funny moments but isn't the central focus. Then again, the same thing happened in his tape last year and he's now an Emmy winner. "Veep" is hotter than ever, and in a year with no frontrunner, Hale might be the de facto leader in the category and become a back-to-back winner.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Tony Hale - Veep (episode: "Crate")
2. Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family (episode: "Message Received")
3. Ty Burrell - Modern Family (episode: "Spring a Ding Fling")
4. Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (episode: "Christmas")
5. Adam Driver - Girls (episode: "Two Plane Rides")
6. Fred Armisen - Portlandia (episode: "Pull-Out King")

This episode has three "okay" tapes and three "great" tapes. Armisen's episode just makes me question how he even landed this nomination (name-checking seems likely). Driver is a great actor, but his performance isn't comedic and doesn't have an important enough impact. Braugher is great in his role, but this is not the showcase episode for him. Burrell runs the gamut in his episode with genuine laughs, physical comedy, empathy, and emotion. Ferguson gets nearly the same treatment except with a "bigger" performance with a larger impact. But Hale has the moment that will stick out in Emmy voters minds as the most genuinely funny, and this is a category that loves rewarding the funniest performances.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Fred Armisen - Portlandia
5. Adam Driver - Girls
4. Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine-Nine
3. Ty Burrell - Modern Family
2. Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family
1. Tony Hale - Veep

It's the same ranking as above, but for good reason. Armisen's nomination is unmerited and the tape proves it. His show can't compete with some of these other nominees, and there is absolutely nothing special about his performance. On the other hand, Driver is turning in a fantastic performance on "Girls," but it's not the kind of thing I see winning this award. Voters will have to be in tune with this season of "Girls" to know that he is really worthy of his nomination, but his submission episode doesn't show that off very well. Still, there's a chance he could really surprise. Really, him and everyone ranked above him have at least a decent shot at winning. I want to rank Braugher higher because the Emmys love him and could easily give it to him for that reason alone, but his episode is too weak and he has stronger competitors that also have proven Emmy track records. Burrell has a great shot at winning this, and his being ranked in third is based purely on competition. It's just hard to pick between these three, and I'm putting him in third because I think general buzz is on the side of the other two contenders, but Burrell's tape is your stereotypical winning tape and he's a beloved character. He can easily win his second Emmy. Ferguson is the most overdue in this category and has the buzziest episode with a dramatic moment mixed in with comedic elements, not to mention the empathy that sticks with you after the episode has finished. I just don't think voters love the character as much as they do others so I'm not sure he can really go all the way and win. That's why I'm sticking with, at least for now, last year's winner Hale. He's got a great episode, maybe even better than his winning submission last year, and his character is lovable and downright hysterical. But this race is definitely wide, wide open.