A race that has received a lot of flak for its lack of excitement and change may end up providing one of the biggest shocking victories of the night. So who might surprise everyone with a trip to the podium? Read on to find out...
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Louis CK - Louie (episode: "Model")
Don Cheadle - House of Lies (episode: "Wreckage")
Ricky Gervais - Derek (episode: "Episode 2.6")
Matt LeBlanc - Episodes (episode: "Episode 306")
William H. Macy - Shameless (episode: "Lazarus")
Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory (episode: "The Relationship Diremption")
This season of "Louie" got a lot less praise than previous seasons, as far as I could tell, yet among the more popular episodes I had heard about, CK submitted "Model," by far the most awkward submission in this category. The story is basically divided into two halves. In the first half, he bombs opening for Jerry Seinfeld at a charity event. It's just so awkward, and not in a funny way. It's like watching a car accident, but you can look away because it's not that funny. The second half of the episode finds Louie hanging out with the one girl in the audience who actually appreciated his stand-up, but the "poop on Louie" parade marches through this episode as he ends up breaking her nose, ruining her modeling career, and getting sued for $5 million. It's not a feel-good episode, and provides very few laughs. I'd be shocked if this submission won him an Emmy, compared to episodes he has submitted in the past where he is much more charming and happy. Continuing the string of bad episode submissions is Cheadle's tape. I've already expressed my disgust for Cheadle's nomination here, and his episode does him absolutely no favors. He doesn't stand out, have any good money scenes...he basically walks through the motions and doesn't do anything remotely Emmy-worthy. Combined with the show's lack of recognition elsewhere, Cheadle won't touch the Emmy and if he does, the whole Emmy-predicting community (including yours truly) will riot. Gervais was one of the biggest surprises of nomination morning, and given my general distaste toward the actor, I wasn't looking forward to watching his submission for "Derek." Man was I surprised...what a great submission. Is it funny? Kind of. It's got some good jokes for Gervais, even if they are mostly revolved around burping or physical comedy. But the bright spot of this episode is how different it is for Gervais -- everyone knows he is a sarcastic (pardon my language) asshole, and he couldn't be further from it in this episode. The first half of the episode finds him on a date, and he is charming in a dorky way, which definitely creates empathy from the audience, essential to an Emmy race. The latter half of the episode finds him talking to his dying father and confronting his death. It is an emotionally charged moment, and one that really shows the breadth of Gervais' acting as he completely flips the switch on what you think of when you think "Ricky Gervais." With tears in his eyes, recollecting on his time with his father and urging the audience to spend time with loved ones before it is too late, it is a powerful moment that alone could win him the Emmy. He went from being a "WTF" nominee to a major contender.
I've never been a fan of "Episodes," despite the fact that LeBlanc and this series' co-creator David Crane are well-known as one of the stars and co-creater, respectively, of my favorite TV show of all time, "Friends." This episode was probably my favorite performance I've seen from LeBlanc so far. He gets range, he has some funny moments, and the episode is filled with callbacks to "Friends," which may entice Emmy voters. His character is sometimes unlikable, but here it doesn't come across as to narcissistic, and when he is confronted by his girlfriend for cheating at the end of the episode, you do feel bad for him. It's not the best submission in the category, but it's strong, and given that he's on his third nomination for this show, he could surprise with a win. Macy landed his first nomination after "Shameless" moved from drama to comedy categories, yet his tape is definitely dramatic. That's an overwhelming theme of the fourth season of "Shameless." Macy's character is quite despicable, sometimes evil, but this episode isn't too bad for him. Unfortunately, he doesn't have an abundance of screentime here, but he's effective in what he gets. Recovering from a kidney transplant, he avoids responsibility and finds a way out of the hospital, away from his new wife. His major scene comes at episode's end where he screams out to the frozen unknown about surviving after being on the brink of death. It's a nice scene with some impact, but it's not enough to make this an effective tape for an Emmy win. "Shameless" works best as an ensemble piece, and Macy is an integral part (although not its best, that honor goes to the severely underrated Emmy Rossum), but with an unlikable character, little screentime, and no empathy, I don't know if he can summon an Emmy win. Finally, perpetual winner Parsons is back with yet another episode featuring "drunk Sheldon." This episode, however, doesn't touch previous "drunk Sheldon" episodes. In this episode, Parsons' character confronts a life change when he begins questioning his scientific work, leading to some science humor that may or may not catch voters' attention. His drunk antics come largely in the form of drunk voicemails left to his idol, Stephen Hawking, but during that time, he is off-screen and only his voice carries the performance. Still, that's gotta help a little bit because he has to create laughs using only his voice. Unfortunately, this just isn't a great, award-winning performance, but that hasn't necessarily stopped Parsons in the past, so with even a good episode, he's a threat. He'd be a bigger lock with a better episode, but this makes him vulnerable.
Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Ricky Gervais - Derek (episode: "Episode 2.6")
2. Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory (episode: "The Relationship Diremption")
3. Matt LeBlanc - Episodes (episode: "Episode 306")
4. William H. Macy - Shameless (episode: "Lazarus")
5. Louis CK - Louie (episode: "Model")
6. Don Cheadle - House of Lies (episode: "Wreckage")
Gervais has, far and away, the best tape in this category. He's funny, he's heartbreaking, he has range, impact...it's a great tape. The only thing hurting him is that "Derek" is quite a weird show. The humor is a bit understated, but I don't think it pulls away from Gervais' performance. Parsons is solid as he is in every other "TBBT" episode, but his drunk shenanigans in this episode aren't as outrageous as past episodes, and for a character who has been making personal progress all season, this isn't the best showcase of Parsons' performance. LeBlanc has a good episode, but he'll need to rely on the weaknesses of his competitors to get the Emmy. Still, he's definitely a dark horse. Macy is great on "Shameless," but he doesn't have a tape that gives him range and impact, and that could hurt. CK's episode is painfully awkward and just not funny. I don't think he can win it. And the less we say about Cheadle, the better...okay?
Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Don Cheadle - House of Lies
5. Louis CK - Louie
4. William H. Macy - Shameless
3. Matt LeBlanc - Episodes
2. Ricky Gervais - Derek
1. Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
Cheadle is...just...no. CK has had so many better chances to win this category and this is not one of them (he has much better chances in the Writing and Directing categories). Macy might have had a good shot at winning if his tape was a little better, because he is a respected veteran actor playing an alcoholic (sounds like an Emmy win to me), but his tape isn't great and I don't know if Emmy voters are clamoring to reward him. LeBlanc has a good tape, and he's "overdue" (if you consider him due at all). He's definitely a dark horse for the win. But the race really comes down to two big ponies. Gervais has the best tape that would be a slam-dunk win, but he's on a show nobody has heard of and his performance borders on dramatic at points. Still, Gervais is an Emmy favorite, pulling an upset in this category seven years ago, so he could definitely do it again this year. However, I'm just not sure if Emmy voters will collectively agree that this is the best performance, and so I think they'll end up going with a safe choice in Parsons, who probably isn't the best choice and considering the history he'd make with a win here, it's a big deal. I'm still not sold on my prediction of Parsons because he's vulnerable and Emmy voters may be tired of his performance, in addition to the wonderful Gervais tape. This prediction is not locked in, and check back for my final predictions to see if I end up picking Gervais.
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