Best Drama Series
SECOND CHOICE: True Detective
Unlike some predictors, I am not predicting a full sweep for "Breaking Bad" in its final season. Remember, a show like "The Sopranos" -- often referred to as one of, if not the, best television shows ever -- only won writing and directing categories in its final year, in addition to a Best Drama Series victory. Still, "Breaking Bad" is a similar beast, and I'm predicting it'll have a trophy to match the one from last year. My second pick is "True Detective," which looked like a frontrunner for a long time, but I think "Breaking Bad" has more going in its favor. "True Detective" is, somehow, darker and grittier than "Breaking Bad," and while voters obviously loved the lead performances from Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson, as well as the writing and directing, I just think they'll give it to "Breaking Bad." If "True Detective" does win, however, it would be kind of surprising, but ultimately understandable.
Best Comedy Series
SECOND CHOICE: Modern Family
I've been sticking with this prediction since nomination day in July and I'm keeping to it now: "Orange Is the New Black" will win Best Comedy Series and prevent "Modern Family" from winning a record-tying fifth award (at least for now). The love for "OITNB" was apparent in fans and critics, but was matched by the Academy, who gave the show the most nominations for a comedy series. It hit the mark in all the right categories, including five acting nominations, and a writing and directing nod. It has already won an Emmy for guest actress Uzo Aduba, Netflix's first acting win, and could make its way to being Netflix's first series win, the first time an Internet streaming service has won the award. That's certainly appealing to voters in terms of making history, and while "Modern Family" could also do that, they've got an uphill battle. Still, we cannot discredit "Modern Family," a show that was running stale but had a very good season. Voters clearly love the show, and a win for this season would be justifiable (as for seasons three and four, that's a debate for another time). Still, "Orange Is the New Black" would be a new kind of winner for this category since no hour-long series has won since "Ally McBeal" in 1999. Additionally, the dark material on the show is incomparable to wacky sitcoms that have won in the past like "30 Rock," "Arrested Development," and "The Office." It just seems like it is time for a new winner in this category as "Modern Family" does not have the buzz it had in earlier seasons, and while it had a comeback season, I think the buzz and support for "OITNB" will carry it to a win.
Best Actor in a Drama Series
SECOND CHOICE: Matthew McConaughey for True Detective
It's been Cranston vs. McConaughey since before Emmy nominations were even announced. When it was revealed "True Detective" would compete in the drama categories instead of miniseries categories, the discussion switched from "McConaughey will handily walk away with an Emmy" to "They have to pick between Cranston and McConaughey?!" Yes, it'll be that hard of a choice for some voters. Cranston is loved in this category, winning in the show's first three seasons. He's gone off the radar after the show skipped a year at the Emmys, then losses to Damian Lewis of "Homeland" and Jeff Daniels from "The Newsroom." A victory here, his first in four years, would be a perfect send-off, and don't think voters aren't thinking strategically like that. "Breaking Bad" really gained praise during its final seasons, yet Cranston is winless for them. They'll want to make sure that doesn't happen in the final season. However, the race is not Cranston's entirely for the taking. McConaughey has won praise for his role on "True Detective," but the real variable here is that, well, he's Matthew McConaughey. He's an Oscar winner and well-respected in the acting community, and to add an Emmy on top of that would be huge. Compared to Cranston, he's got a bit more of a subtle role, not outrageously over-the-top. If voters want to reward "True Detective," this is one of the best categories to do it in. However, I still think Cranston takes it.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
SECOND CHOICE: Julianna Margulies for The Good Wife
A tough battle here among many deserving ladies, this category has switched frontrunners over the course of the Emmy prognosticating season. Before nominations came out, the two big ladies in the race were Robin Wright and Tatiana Maslany. Maslany, however, would be snubbed again, and Wright, who had a great submission, ended up giving voters an episode where she gets some substance, but not enough to justify her strong season-long performance. That kind of flipped the race on its head and led us back to two previous winners who many thought were past the podium. Danes' show, as it has been noted again and again, lost critical favor this year, and it is apparent given the show's two major nominations as opposed to eight last year. Ouch. Still, anyone will tell you that Danes is still the best part of the show, and her submission tape shows that she's still one of the best actresses on television. It's showy, yet a bit of a different performance from her, as opposed to her manic season one episode and her subdued season two submission. This one is flashy, but not too showy. It's the right blend, and she's great enough to convince voters that while her show may not be deserving of their love, she still is. Her biggest competitor will be Margulies. The fact that she's in the conversation for the win is impressive. She was inexplicably snubbed last year, but made it back into the race this year after a well-received season of "The Good Wife," although the show itself did not make it back into Best Drama Series. Still, that could work in Margulies' favor. The outrage after the show did not get a Drama Series nomination was deafening, so support rallied around Margulies (and her nominated co-stars who we'll get to in a little bit) for a win. She's got a showy tape that shows her mourning the loss of a loved one, and she gets some really powerful scenes both acting-wise and what is written on the page. It also helps that "The Good Wife" has won an Emmy for one of its actresses every season it has been on the air. Still, the race is really a toss-up since voters could still give the award to Wright, despite the okay tape, and there are very strong competitors in Lizzy Caplan, bright new star of a hot new show, and Kerry Washington, one of television's most popular actresses on the showiest show on television. Heck, even Michelle Dockery has great moments in her tape (although she stole Maslany's nomination, so I still can't forgive her). Really, anyone could win here, but I'll keep my odds on Danes for a three-peat.
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
SECOND CHOICE: Ricky Gervais for Derek
I discussed this category at length in my analysis, so I'll keep it brief. Gervais has the best tape, and he's gained some buzz within the Emmy prognosticating community as a result (whether or not that has any effect on Emmy voting cannot be proven, of course). Still, Parsons is the defending champ on television's biggest show, and while his episode isn't as great as what he's won with in the past, you cannot count him out for a second. It's going to be a matter of if voters reward the best performance, despite the fact that it's from a show no one has heard of, or if they'll give it to a safe choice, the crowd-pleasing performance that's good, but not great. I still think they'll go with Parsons. Remember, Gervais was a surprise winner here before, but the show he won with that time, "Extras," was more well-known and also garnered nominations for writing and directing, so people knew it existed. "Derek" is just so unknown that I don't know if it can pull off the Emmy win. So I'll stick with Parsons, but I'll be pleased if Gervais takes it. This category could also have a completely out-of-nowhere winner because of how weak the field is. Just as long as it's not Don Cheadle...
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
SECOND CHOICE: Taylor Schilling for Orange Is the New Black
One of the easier races to predict. Louis-Dreyfus was always going to be a frontrunner in this race, and she solidifies it with a standout season of "Veep" and a wonderful submission tape. She's easily miles ahead of the other nominees, but there's always a chance for an upset. No category is 100% locked. As a result, let's examine who could steal that spot. I didn't get to write extensively about this category, but Melissa McCarthy's tape is actually really great. She isn't outrageously funny or just playing cute. McCarthy has some emotional heft to her episode along with a few laughs, and it really shows her off as an actress in an impressive way we really haven't seen yet. Amy Poehler won the Golden Globe so she has some momentum, but her submission tape is only okay and I think her time may have passed (Emmys, you only have next year to make this happen!). Dunham and Falco probably won't win. But the contender to keep an eye on is Schilling, who is the lead of the "OTINB" gang, and if Emmy voters take very kindly to the show, she could surprise everyone with a victory. Her tape is her most comedic episode, and although it's not as funny as Louis-Dreyfus' tape, it's got many layers that could be appealing to voters. If anyone's upsetting the fictional Vice President, it's Piper Chapman.
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
SECOND CHOICE: Peter Dinklage for Game of Thrones
Definitely one of the hardest categories to predict as I detailed in my final "Emmy Race Analysis," this is really coming down to three major contenders and one dark horse. The point of it is that each performance is profusely different -- Charles is dominant and commandeering, and he stands out in a very busy episode that gives him a lot of great moments; Dinklage has limited screentime, but blows the previous fifty minutes of his episode out of the water with a terrifying and long-in-the-works speech; Paul blows up and uses his physical acting skills to portray his anger boiling over. As I've said, it is really going to be dependent on what voters like best, and with these three performances competing for the top slot, it won't be a clear-cut answer. That's why I'll stick with my previous prediction of Charles, which I gave an explanation for below, if you want to check it out. In my opinion, I think Dinklage has the next best chance, but they really all have the same odds at this point.
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
SECOND CHOICE: Christine Baranski for The Good Wife
Another category that seems to have a clear-cut frontrunner. Gunn won her first Emmy last year, and her odds look just as good this year. She's got "Breaking Bad" momentum on her side, in addition to an absolutely killer tape. It's a brave, shocking, and heartbreaking performance, and she should easily take away her second Emmy. The other contenders have a bit of a shot. Lena Headey, Christina Hendricks and Maggie Smith have an outside shot at the win, but they don't have a combo of buzz + great tape. Joanne Froggatt could potentially spoil with a shocking tape, but she doesn't really have any buzz on her side. If anyone's going to trump Gunn, it's Baranski, an Emmy favorite with her fifth nomination for "The Good Wife" with no wins. As explained above, her victory could make up for "TGW" snubs elsewhere this year, and although she's good in her tape, it's brief and not as memorable as Gunn. That's why I think Gunn will take the award this year.
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
SECOND CHOICE: Jesse Tyler Ferguson for Modern Family
After Hale surprised last year, it's apparent that this category can definitely hold some surprises. That's why we shouldn't count out anybody. Fred Armisen is a real wild card because we don't know how the Academy will react to a variety performance in this race, but given the unsuccessful history of his "SNL" co-stars, we can guess and say he won't win. Also, his tape is not good. Adam Driver is a rising star in Hollywood, and he's excellent on "Girls," but his tape does not show it off well. He only gets one really good scene, and he's not that funny in the episode. Andre Braugher is an Emmy favorite who could definitely win with a better tape, but he doesn't have a very good episode. That'll hurt his chances, and the fact that the Emmys didn't respond to the show as expected means they won't feel compelled to give this trophy to him. Ty Burrell has a very good episode that gives him range, physical comedy, and cross-dressing. It could be just enough to secure Burrell's second Emmy. He, however, doesn't have the buzz of his "Modern Family" co-star, Ferguson, who came off his strongest season ever with a big tape that has dramatic impact and range. For the winless Ferguson, it'll probably be now or never for the Emmy win. However, I'm going with defending champion Hale. With no clear frontrunner in the race, voters may fall back on their previous victor whose tape is very good and has the most memorable and funniest moment of the entire category. Ferguson can upset, but I'm choosing Hale.
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
SECOND CHOICE: Kate Mulgrew for Orange Is the New Black
This is a much closer race than you'd be led to believe. I'm confident Janney or Mulgrew will win the race. Mayim Bialik, Julie Bowen, Anna Chlumsky, and Kate McKinnon don't have anywhere close to the same amount of buzz or comparable outstanding episodes to compete with the older actresses of this category. Mulgrew's tape is a little more dramatic, but with big range and memorable moments. Janney is balls-to-the-wall in her tape, with laugh-out-loud moments, and she dominates the episode. Again, it's a matter of what Emmy voters want. I think they'll go in the direction of Janney, but "OITNB" momentum can carry Mulgrew. Plus, Janney already has one Emmy win this year, so it's not like she'd be robbed.
Best Writing for a Drama Series
SECOND CHOICE: "Felina" for Breaking Bad
The three non-"Breaking Bad" nominees are great episodes, don't get me wrong. "The Children" is the most effective episode of "Game of Thrones" to move from storyline to storyline and satisfying all the different stories being told. "Chapter 14" is my favorite episode of "House of Cards," with shocking storytelling and a seamless transition from seasons one to two. And "The Secret Fate of All Life" is a standout episode of "True Detective," most impressive for blending three timelines in one episode. However, I think this race will be between the two "Breaking Bad" episodes. "Felina" is the series finale, and that could win for obvious reasons, tying together all the loose ends into a completely satisfying end, while also giving fans an outstanding episode of television. But anyone who has seen "Ozymandias" will tell you it's the superior episode. Known as the episode where everything finally comes apart, "Ozymandias" is what viewers have been waiting for since the show's beginning. Tense, terrifying, emotionally-draining, daunting, heartbreaking...these are just a few of the words to define the season's third-to-last episode, and the one that will hopefully walk away with the Emmy come Sunday night.
Best Directing for a Drama Series
SECOND CHOICE: "Felina" for Breaking Bad
"Breaking Bad" could win here, too. "Felina" is a very well-directed episode, but there are also other achievements in this category that are equally impressive. "The Watchers on the Wall" from "Game of Thrones" is the most cinematic episode in the show's history, revolving around a single battle like it had a $100 million budget for a big-screen release. It's a true directorial effort that should be rewarded. "Chapter 14" is beautifully directed, nearly matching the efforts of last year's directing nominee (and eventual winner) David Fincher for "House of Cards." But "Felina" has the buzz, and it's got great direction from the show's creator, a last-ditch effort to give him a solo award. However, the most impressive directing feat of this category is Cary Joji Fukunaga's "Who Goes There" for "True Detective," also known as the episode with the ten-minute tracking shot through a ghetto shootout. It's nearly jaw-dropping how flawlessly it comes together and leaves you in awe of Fukunaga's efforts. This is the easiest place to reward "True Detective," and since the entire first season was directed by Fukunaga, it'd be a reward for his efforts over the entire season, which I don't think voters can resist. This should be a major win for "True Detective."
Best Writing for a Comedy Series
SECOND CHOICE: "So Did the Fat Lady" for Louie
In my original analysis, I picked "So Did the Fat Lady," creating the show's pattern of winning this category every other year. I then decided to switch my pick to "I Wasn't Ready" from "OITNB." Why? As I said in my analysis, "I Wasn't Ready" is a great introduction to the series, but it doesn't feel like outright exposition. We're meeting characters on the fly, but we aren't learning every shade of their personality right away, and while it is focused mainly on a single character and her surroundings, it does it without losing a bit of momentum. "So Did the Fat Lady" has a lot of important social commentary, which would be a great recognition of the episode's topic of weight in the dating world. However, those kinds of episodes aren't really rewarded here. Lately, the Emmys have been favoring episodes that balance the funny and the heartwarming, a true sitcom blend. None of this year's nominees really have that, but "OITNB" comes closest, I say, and that's why I'm changing my prediction.
Best Directing for a Comedy Series
SECOND CHOICE: "Lesbian Request Denied" for Orange Is the New Black
A lot of people think "Lesbian Request Denied" for "OITNB" can win because of the big-name director behind the episode, Jodie Foster. Yes, it's true that well-known directors have Emmy success including last year's victory for Best Directing for a Drama Series by David Fincher and previous winners like Martin Scorsese and JJ Abrams. However, there have been plenty of recognizable directors to lose the Emmy including Steven Spielberg, Quentin Tarantino, Paul Feig and Beth McCarthy-Miller. Clearly, being well-known doesn't improve your chances. That's why I'm not confident that Foster will claim this award, especially considering the directing itself is good, but not outstanding. History, however, does come into play in this category when considering the death grip "Modern Family" has had on this category during its run. It won every season except the first season, and last year's winner, Gail Mancuso, directed their nominee this year, "Las Vegas." It's a technically exceptional episode, balancing intertwining storylines with sight gags and physical comedy. It takes a lot of choreographing to pull off an episode like "Las Vegas" and I think Mancuso can be rewarded for that. At least it's better than the episode she won this category with last year. I'm not sure who else stands as a threat in this category, but that could also mean a surprise winner is brewing. We'll just have to wait until tonight to find out...
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