Best Drama Series
1. Breaking Bad (=)
2. True Detective (=)
3. Game of Thrones (+1)
4. House of Cards (-1)
5. The Good Wife (=)
6. Mad Men (=)
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7. Masters of Sex (+2)
8. Homeland (=)
9. The Americans (NEW)
10. Downton Abbey (-3)
FALLING OUT: Scandal
Not a whole lot of change in the top tier as the top six stays in tact, minus a minor switch-a-roo for Game of Thrones and House of Cards. Game of Thrones hit its mark at all the right awards shows and with watercooler moments in recent episodes (with more to come as the season pushes toward the finish line), the all-important buzz is on the rise. On the contrast, House of Cards didn't have a great week with nominations after only gaining one nomination for each awards group: Best Achievement in Drama at TCAs and Best Actress in a Drama Series at Critics' Choice. I still wouldn't put them lower than top four, especially considering the tight competition at TCAs and the "out there" choices by Critics' Choice. The other four shows in the top ten remain in good standing. Breaking Bad and True Detective dominated, as expected, while The Good Wife made a strong presence that would normally knock it up a few spots, but because of the show's recent Emmy history, I don't feel confident putting it much higher than the #5 slot...for now. And while Mad Men did not score a single nomination last week, I don't feel confident dropping it. Outside the top six, Masters of Sex makes a big push after being one of the top nominated programs at Critics' Choice. Homeland and Downton Abbey were completely snubbed last week, much like Mad Men, but that hurts Downton more than Homeland. The Americans had a very good showing with two TCA noms and 4 Critics' Choice nods, but at this point, if any show breaks into the current top six, it would be Masters of Sex.
Best Comedy Series
1. Modern Family (=)
2. Veep (+1)
3. The Big Bang Theory (-1)
4. Orange Is the New Black (+1)
5. Louie (-1)
6. Brooklyn Nine-Nine (+1)
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7. Girls (-1)
8. Parks and Recreation (+1)
9. Silicon Valley (-1)
10. Shameless (=)
It looks like there is a lot of activity in this category, but every show largely remains in the same region as last week. Modern Family still stays on top, and I say that even after being completely ignored last week. Veep bumps up one spot while The Big Bang Theory falls, but I still think these two shows and Modern Family are in the race for the #1 spot. Veep and Big Bang both grabbed two TCA nominations, while Big Bang earned five CC nods, compared to Veep's three. Still, Veep has buzz going for it, and the margin between the two shows is minimal. Orange Is the New Black and Louie also switch spots. Orange Is the New Black had a weird week. The TCAs did not nominate it for Individual Achievement in Drama nor Comedy, yet the show was one of five nominees in the crucial Program of the Year category. It grabbed 4 CC nods the next day. Louie had the same count, minus one CC nomination. Still, Louie isn't making the waves it did last season when it was in serious contention for the title, but OITNB is. It's gearing up for a big press push when the second season premieres this Friday, while Louie is about to silently wrap up the season. One big change that knocks one show into the upper tier and another out is Brooklyn Nine-Nine jumping over Girls. Right now would be a good time to talk about the Academy's new 2% rule, which says that if, after the nomination votes are tallied, any show after the sixth nominee is within 2% of all votes cast, that show will also be nominated. This basically helps out shows that are right on the bubble, and that's a great thing in the case of these shows. Girls had nothing to show this week, when it really needed buzz to safely land a spot. But Brooklyn didn't have a very impressive week either, only landing one nomination per group. Still, these shows are the ones fighting it out for the last spot, and in a race this close, there's a chance that one of these shows could become the seventh nominee. I'll make that final call in my very last set of predictions before nominations are revealed. The other three shows on the list have an outside shot, with Parks and Rec preceding Silicon Valley, since the latter's buzz has sped downhill and won't get a nomination.
Best Drama Actor
1. Bryan Cranston - Breaking Bad (=)
2. Matthew McConaughey - True Detective (+1)
3. Kevin Spacey – House of Cards (-1)
4. Jon Hamm - Mad Men (=)
5. James Spader - The Blacklist (=)
6. Woody Harrelson - True Detective (=)
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7. Michael Sheen - Masters of Sex (=)
8. Matthew Rhys – The Americans (+2)
9. Jeff Daniels - The Newsroom (-1)
10. Damian Lewis – Homeland (-1)
House of Cards' bad week, as foreshadowed earlier, reflected worst on Kevin Spacey, who didn't get a nomination from either organization despite being...ya know, Kevin Spacey. But being Mr. Spacey has its advantages, and he'll be fine. The news did help McConaughey jump one spot. He and Cranston were one of three actors in this category to be recognized by both groups. A lack of Mad Men love didn't do Jon Hamm any favors, and James Spader could've used a boost, but I'm not ready to move them yet. The week's news had its pros and cons, however, for Harrelson, whose show had a great, umm, showing, but did not land an individual nod. That's where Sheen might swoop in and steal a spot in this line-up since he was able to land a CC nomination. But let's talk more about Matthew Rhys, who made this race pretty darn interesting this week. In case you were unaware, the TCAs are highly competitive in the acting categories, only recognizing five performances and grouping together lead and supporting acting, as well as actors and actresses. That Matthew Rhys was able to land a TCA nomination in the company of Cranston and McConaughey, as well as two actress frontrunners (see more below) is impressive. The fact that he received a second nomination the following day for Critics' Choice? Game changer. That would basically make Rhys a bonafide contender, but the problem here is his show, which was basically completely ignored last year by the Emmys. A second year push is possible, but it's not like this is a show with buzz equivalent to any of the drama frontrunners. That's what makes predicting a Rhys nomination risky. Still, he certainly has a better shot than Daniels and Lewis, who really are here because they are previous winners, but shouldn't be coming back for another nomination, let alone win.
Best Drama Actress
1. Robin Wright - House of Cards (=)
2. Claire Danes – Homeland (=)
3. Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife (+1)
4. Kerry Washington – Scandal (-1)
5. Tatiana Maslany – Orphan Black (+1)
6. Elisabeth Moss – Mad Men (-1)
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7. Lizzy Caplan - Masters of Sex (+1)
8. Vera Farmiga – Bates Motel (-1)
9. Keri Russell - The Americans (=)
10. Michelle Dockery - Downton Abbey (=)
Robin Wright grabbed House of Cards' only CC nomination, and although she was not one of two drama actresses recognized by TCA, she still remains on top. Danes, as well as her show, was shut out, but I'm not ready to push her down further than #2, especially when there are other factors to consider. Such as? Well, Julianna Margulies had a killer week with The Good Wife leading the nominations for both groups and Margulies getting the double nomination. There's still concern about her position in this race after the Emmys dropped her last year, but she's undoubtedly on solid footing now. Kerry Washington, meanwhile, received no such boost, but she's still a frontrunner. Tatiana Maslany also joins Margulies as the only other female double nominee in the drama categories, a task Maslany also pulled off last year (not to mention winning both awards!) before being snubbed at the Emmys. This time around, the buzz is simply too much, and I really think Maslany has put herself in a good place for a nomination. The sixth spot is currently slotted for Moss, but she could easily be replaced by #7 and #8, Caplan and Farmiga. I'm going with Moss because I think voters will be lazy, especially if they can jump over one hurdle and nominate Maslany. However, nominations for Caplan and Farmiga are likely. Caplan got the CC bump, while Farmiga returned for a second consecutive nomination. Overall, buzz for Masters of Sex outweighs the buzz for Bates Motel, which is why I have Caplan ranked higher, but there's a good enough case for both women to be nominated. The last two spots remained unchanged, even as Russell earns a CC nom over Danes, Washington and Moss.
Best Comedy Actor
1. Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory (=)
2. Louis CK – Louie (=)
3. Andy Samberg - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (=)
4. Don Cheadle - House of Lies (=)
5. Johnny Galecki – The Big Bang Theory (+1)
6. Matt LeBlanc – Episodes (+2)
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7. Robin Williams - The Crazy Ones (=)
8. Thomas Middleditch – Silicon Valley (-3)
9. William H. Macy – Shameless (=)
10. Michael J. Fox - The Michael J. Fox Show (=)
I'm beginning to fear the worst about this category. It is clearly the weakest category in this main bunch ads evidenced by not only the number of returning contenders, but contenders that shouldn't even be considered (here's looking at you, Cheadle, LeBlanc, and Fox). Still, I'm hoping there's a little bit of a shakeup, which is why I have two new nominees to the category. To start, the two greatest competitors for the title, at the moment, are Parsons and CK, and both received dual nominations this week, so nothing changes. Hot on their tail is probably Andy Samberg, who I'm starting to think could really win this if he submits a great tape, gets buzz on his side, and (but most importantly,) voters are tired of rewarding Parsons and don't want to give CK the acting win. I personally don't think Louis CK will win an acting award for this show, but I could be proven wrong. But Samberg is the bright new spot of this line-up, and I wouldn't mind him winning the award. Cheadle will most likely be back, but he won't get near the trophy because no one cares about his show and his nomination is purely for lack of competition. I have Johnny Galecki at #5 even though I'm still highly unconfident he'll get a nomination, but at this point, even if all of last year's nominees return and Samberg is included, there's still an empty spot which I think has a good shot of being filled by Galecki. And speaking of returning nominees, I've put LeBlanc into the top tier even though he really shouldn't be there. I would love to be proven wrong, but voter laziness and no big competition means I'm bound to be rolling my eyes. Robin Williams could still sneak in, but his show's cancellation really ruined his Emmy chances. I had Middleditch in my predictions just last week, but I've realized now, with Silicon Valley's season freshly finished, the buzz I had thought would grow later in the season never arrived and I'm not liking the show nor Middleditch's chances at all. The bottom two remain, and although Macy would be a deserving and worthy nominee, I don't think it can happen. At least Macy is a veteran and his show is returning, especially of its hottest season. Hmm, did I just convince myself that Macy may have a better chance than predicted? Check back next week on that one...
Best Comedy Actress
1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Veep (=)
2. Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation (=)
3. Lena Dunham – Girls (=)
4. Taylor Schilling - Orange Is The New Black (=)
5. Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie (=)
6. Anna Faris – Mom (=)
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7. Mindy Kaling – The Mindy Project (NEW)
8. Emmy Rossum – Shameless (+1)
9. Melissa McCarthy - Mike and Molly (-1)
10. Zooey Deschanel – New Girl (-2)
FALLING OUT: Laurie Metcalf - Getting On
Well, not much movement here, but some important notes. Louis-Dreyfus and Poehler are definitely still at the top of the list, getting the dual nomination and generally being the faces of funny women on TV. They're definite locks. At this point, I think a state would self-implode if one of these two were snubbed (which means I'll definitely be proven wrong and Poehler will be snubbed). Things get hairy from here. None of my remaining "nominees" was nominated this week by either group, however, the nominees from CC, which has its own Actress in a Comedy Series category, was made up of some interesting choices including a Broad City actress (a show that will not be Emmy recognized despite, what I hear, the idea that it totally should be) and Amy Schumer from the variety show Inside Amy Schumer (and fun tidbit here: she'll be competing in Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series anyway because Emmy rules dictate that all actors in a variety show must compete in supporting categories). So while it was shocking that people like Dunham and Schilling didn't get a nomination, it's clear CC went for inspired choices that wouldn't otherwise get the recognition. That's why I kept #3-#6 in tact. However, this week's awards did inspire some changes down below. Mindy Kaling, who I didn't even rank last week, now sits squarely in the "just outside" position after snagging impressive nominations at TCA for Achievement in Comedy for her show The Mindy Project (which she created, produces, and writes), as well as an Individual Achievement in Comedy nomination alongside powerhouses like CK, Parsons, Louis-Dreyfus and Poehler. It was a much needed boost for the show and the actress, and as she's its likeliest nominee, she has an opportunity to steal a spot. I also gave a boost to Emmy Rossum, who was nominated for her Shameless performance in the Drama categories at the CC a few years ago, but is now nominated for Actress in a Comedy Series, coordinating with the show's switch from drama to comedy categories at the Emmys. She could find new support on this side, and it would be entirely deserving (sidebar: I just finished my bingewatch of Shameless and it is criminal she doesn't have any Emmy nominations for this role, let alone a win). However, this means that two big stars who many thought would be right on the skirt of getting in no longer have great odds. Deschanel's show is falling off the radar fast, and McCarthy's film success has worked just fine without her presence at the Emmys.
Best Drama Supporting Actor
1. Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones (+1)
2. Aaron Paul – Breaking Bad (-1)
3. Dean Norris – Breaking Bad (+1)
4. Josh Charles – The Good Wife (+1)
5. Mandy Patinkin – Homeland (-2)
6. Jon Voight – Ray Donovan (+1)
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7. Jeff Perry – Scandal (-1)
8. Charles Dance – Game of Thrones (+2)
9. Jeffrey Wright - Boardwalk Empire (-1)
10. Jim Carter - Downton Abbey (-1)
Movement everywhere in this category. To start, I've moved Dinklage up to the top spot. He seems like a more certain frontrunner vs. previous #1, Aaron Paul. Dinklage's show is airing now as opposed to Paul's airing early last fall. Dinklage has been getting meaty material, whereas the final season of Breaking Bad didn't have a great focus on Jesse. I'm not saying I think Dinklage will win, I just think he has the best odds of a nomination and would make the most sense, right now, for the win. I have moved both Norris and Charles up one spot each and moved Patinkin down two spots. It is obvious the love for Patinkin's show will shrink this year, and he might be a victim as a result. Although he is easily the best part of the third season, he will be hurt by lack of love for Homeland. On the flip side, Breaking Bad is the current Emmy darling and The Good Wife will hopefully encounter bounteous praise, giving a bump to each show's actors. In the bottom spot, I've moved up Jon Voight, who might just get in based on a deadly concoction of star power and no strong opponents. The lack of Scandal love this week has made me reconsider my "out there" Perry pick from last week. Someone who might be better suited for the last spot? Dance, who is turning in a great performance this season on Game of Thrones, and has a veteran status on an Emmy-adored show that could triumph Voight. Wright and Carter still have an outside shot, but at this point, so does everybody else. This category could end up bringing the most shocks, whether pleasant or not, come nomination morning.
Best Drama Supporting Actress
1. Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad (=)
2. Christine Baranski - The Good Wife (=)
3. Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey (=)
4. Emilia Clarke - Game of Thrones (=)
5. Christina Hendricks - Mad Men (=)
6. Michelle Monahan - True Detective (=)
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7. Bellamy Young – Scandal (=)
8. Monica Potter – Parenthood (=)
9. Lena Headey - Game of Thrones (=)
10. Archie Panjabi - The Good Wife (=)
This one doesn't require much explanation, does it? I've kept everyone where they are for now after this week's nominations were carried out in the exact same fashion as the Actress in a Comedy Series category (top two frontrunners nominated, unexpected choices fill the other slots). Maggie Smith will get her "Maggie Smith nomination". Undeserved or not? That's for you to say, since I don't watch the show. Clarke hasn't been handed a hell of a lot this season on Thrones, but she's still a fan favorite and previous nominee, so I won't shift her out. Hendricks will probably get in...ya know, just because. And while TCA and CC showed their love for True Detective this week, Michelle Monahan saw no love in a similar fashion to her co-star Woody Harrelson. Dare I say it but might McConaughey end up the only nominated actor in the cast? Bellamy Young is making a strong case for Monahan's spot after landing a CC nom this week. Monica Potter, winner of the CC in this category last year, didn't return for a nomination, which was to be expected since her storyline was not as strong or, in Emmy terms, baity. But the Emmys could still recognize her a year later, which, while weird, would still be incredibly deserving. Headey and Panjabi keep their spots toward the bottom because I'm not sure that any of the CC nominated ladies not in this shortlist have an actual shot (sorry, Melissa McBride of The Walking Dead!).
Best Comedy Supporting Actor
1. Ty Burrell - Modern Family (=)
2. Tony Hale – Veep (=)
3. Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family (+1)
4. Eric Stonestreet – Modern Family (-1)
5. Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (=)
6. Adam Driver – Girls (=)
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7. Ed O'Neill - Modern Family (=)
8. Timothy Simons - Veep (=)
9. Simon Helberg – The Big Bang Theory (NEW)
10. Pablo Schrieber – Orange Is the New Black (NEW)
If voters are paying attention, this year's lineup would be extremely deserving, but I won't hold my breath on that one. Burrell keeps the top spot, and will probably stay there until we see what he (and any other fellow Modern Family nominees in this category) submit. Hale will also stay still even though he may not even be the most deserving nominee from his show. If the Emmys had to select only one actor from MF to nominate, I would hope it's Ferguson who had a stellar season with a great emotional arc at the end. He's got great buzz from his wedding, which puts him just ahead of the man he married (onscreen), Stonestreet. Hale was only one of two in this top six to get a CC nom this week. The other? Braugher, who seemingly solidified his chances of crossing over into comedy Emmy categories. I'm still holding onto Driver in the sixth spot since I think voters still like Girls and Driver's performance is certainly worthy of a nomination. O'Neill could get in, but I'm hoping voters realize it is okay for one MF actor to be left out. I made my case for Simons last week, but he'll need real buzz to break through the contenders above him. I've placed two new contenders at the bottom of the list replacing Killam and Welch (who did get a CC nom, but I'm still not confident of his chances). Helberg received critical praise last season and even won a CC award, and although he wasn't nominated this year, this could be another Monica Potter case. I've also already talked, at length, about the possible Big Bang love fest this year. Finally, Schrieber would seem an unlikely nominee for a show all about a female prison, but he's a breakout character with a memorable performance among a large ensemble, and hey, stranger things have happened.
Best Comedy Supporting Actress
1. Allison Janney – Mom (+1)
2. Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory (+1)
3. Julie Bowen – Modern Family (-2)
4. Sofia Vergara - Modern Family (=)
5. Anna Chlumsky – Veep (=)
6. Kate Mulgrew - Orange Is The New Black (=)
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7. Merritt Wever - Nurse Jackie (=)
8. Haley Cuoco-Sweeting - The Big Bang Theory (=)
9. Jane Lynch – Glee (=)
10. Chelsea Peretti - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (=)
It might seem surprising to list a supporting actress on a new show in the top spot, but I'm confident in Allison Janney's chances as of now. She's got the most buzz going into this category, and after a subpar season for Bowen, who has always seemed like a frontrunner, it may be someone else's chance to shine. That's also good news for Bialik, who could win an Emmy with the right tape and buzz. Vergara stays put, as does basically the rest of the lineup. Bialik, Janney, and Mulgrew earned CC noms, as did Wever and Cuoco-Sweeting. It's still hard to say what Emmys will do about Wever, so I don't want to move her up or down. I think it's still pretty possible for Cuoco-Sweeting to get a nomination. I think the race is kind of down to the top eight, but never count out Lynch and if the Emmys should happen to really love Brooklyn Nine-Nine, they'd know that Peretti is entirely deserving of a nomination.
Check back next week to see what has changed in the race, and start preparing yourself for cheers and tears on nomination morning. Got any thoughts on this year's races? Let me know down in the comments section!
Evan
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