1. Aaron Paul - Breaking Bad
2. Peter Dinklage - Game of Thrones
3. Mandy Patinkin - Homeland
4. Dean Norris - Breaking Bad
5. Josh Charles - The Good Wife
6. Jeff Perry - Scandal
----------
7. Jon Voight - Ray Donovan
8. Jeffrey Wright - Boardwalk Empire
9. Jim Carter - Downton Abbey
10. Charles Dance - Game of Thrones
This is a tough category to predict. After last year's win for Bobby Cannavale on Boardwalk Empire, I've learned my lesson that, truly, anything can happen in the Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series race. That's why I'm predicting we'll get at least one major "WTF" nominee this year considering the number of bonafide contenders. Who should consider themselves safe? Aaron Paul, a three-time nominee and two-time winner, will likely make it in one last time for Breaking Bad, and I slot him in the #1 spot just because this is an easy category for voters to reward the show. It faces stiffer competition in the Drama Series and Drama Actor categories, but here, there are few actors biting at Paul's ankles. Sure, his performance in the last season was great, but I think the earlier seasons for which he was rewarded were better. That might change especially considering my #2 pick has yet to complete his season. Peter Dinklage will get the nomination since I'm expecting Game of Thrones to continue to make a bigger splash at these awards. His storyline is really starting to pick up now, so he might move to the #1 spot soon, but it's too soon to judge. He has an Emmy already for season one, and as the show's most memorable character, I wouldn't be surprised to see him snag another one, potentially even this year. Mandy Patinkin should honestly be in the lead acting category because he really stepped up this year due to the large absence of Damian Lewis for a good chunk of the season. Alas, he is here, and while he does have heft and screentime that can contribute to a win, there's just a lack of love for Homeland in general anymore and that might cost him. Also remember that Patinkin couldn't get a nomination during the show's freshman season, for which it won Best Drama Series. It could've just been a regretful snub, but now that the show is getting less love, let's hope that Patinkin's performance, one of the bright spots of the season, isn't forgotten. It's always crazy to hypothesize two actors or actresses from the same show getting nominated in the same category, but when it's a show like Breaking Bad, it's no big deal. Breaking Bad has had two nominated actors in this category twice (Giancarlo Esposito and Jonathan Banks), and this year, it looks like Dean Norris might fit the bill. He had a breakout season (ironically during the show's final stretch), his character is easily the most likable (sure, you can like Walter White, but Hank is the actual good guy on the show), and another factor that plays into Norris' favor is that his other show, Under the Dome, airs during the summer when Emmy voters are casting their ballots. That kind of presence (and Under the Dome has a big presence as last summer's biggest hit) shouldn't be forgotten or ignored. Josh Charles, nominated for season two of The Good Wife, had an absolutely stellar season. The Emmy buzz for Charles kicked off early in the season, but his place in the race was nearly solidified after That Thing That Happened In The Middle of The Season (again, no spoilers). Charles is just as deserving for love as Margulies and the series itself, and a second nomination would be a fantastic reward. However, returning to the category three years later is a tough task, so there are obstacles to overcome. Beyond those five contenders, it is truly a toss-up for the final slot. Again, this is not the strongest year for this category, so who might slither on in? It could be Charles Dance if Emmy voters wanna drop some more love to their favorite fantasy series, but his character hasn't done as much as last year when he was snubbed in the guest category. Jim Carter surprised everyone with a second nomination last year, but buzz for Downton Abbey is near non-existent, and this category needs a shake-up. Jeffrey Wright has gained some buzz for his performance on Boardwalk Empire, and the show did win for a different actor in this category last year, but if you thought Downton Abbey had little buzz, Boardwalk Empire has even less. Jon Voight won this category at the Golden Globes, although I view that win more as a "biggest name in the category" victory than actual performance. Still, there's a good chance he could get in because of name and the fact that Ray Donovan's second season airs this summer (see my above explanation with Norris and Under the Dome). But I'm not confident in picking Voight yet, so I'm going out on a very long, unstable limb and giving the sixth slot (for now) to Jeff Perry for Scandal. This is an actor's show, and while the performances are over-the-top, they are attention getters. Scandal is huge right now, and after last year's win in the guest category for Dan Bucatinsky, it's now known that voters recognize actors other than Kerry Washington. With no real sixth option, Perry could surprise, especially after a baity season and being a fan favorite.
1. Anna Gunn - Breaking Bad
2. Christine Baranski - The Good Wife
3. Maggie Smith - Downton Abbey
4. Emilia Clarke - Game of Thrones
5. Christina Hendricks - Mad Men
6. Michelle Monahan - True Detective
--------
7. Bellamy Young - Scandal
8. Monica Potter - Parenthood
9. Lena Headey - Game of Thrones
10. Archie Panjabi - The Good Wife
Here is a pool of contenders with a lot of returning nominees. The first five contenders are all previous nominees and look to be solidly back in the race this year. Anna Gunn had another sensational season on Breaking Bad and I'd say she's good for a second win, but she faces a few threats. Christine Baranski had another fantastic season on The Good Wife, her strongest in a while, and tasked with multiple baity storylines this season, she has no shortage of episodes to pick for a tape. While she isn't as explosive as Gunn, her understated performance and piercing gaze contrasts enough to attract votes her way. Of course, Maggie Smith will probably be back in the race (whether or not you consider that fair is a personal opinion), but she won't win another award for this performance, I think. Emilia Clarke plays probably the most popular character on Game of Thrones, but she faces the major problem of lack of screentime. Although Danaerys is well-liked by most viewers, she usually only gets one or two scenes an episode, and while that was enough for a nomination last year, Clarke is going to need something similar to the big moment in her tape from last year to solidify her place in the race. I still think she's in. Christina Hendricks hasn't received any high notices so far this season on Mad Men, and support for the show is waning, so she's at risk to be dropped, but I have her in for now. In the final slot, I have Michelle Monahan for True Detective, who made an easy task of filling the final slot once True Detective moved to the Drama race. Monahan was a likely nominee for Miniseries/TV Movie Supporting Actress, so I think she'll appear here too, which would be well deserved since Monahan was usually hidden by her bigger and better co-stars Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson. Still, if there's one category where there is guaranteed to be a shock nominee, it's here. In the past four years, no more than four nominees in this category have returned the next year (and of those four nominees, Christine Baranski and Christina Hendricks were nominated each of the past four years). With that in mind, it's possible that one of my top five won't make it back next year to keep with tradition. But since I'm not ready to take that risk yet, I'll list the contenders with the best chance of sneaking in. Bellamy Young is a breakout star on Scandal, and while she's usually hidden by the love for Kerry Washington, she's been building up praise during these past two seasons. Her role allows her to be dirty, sneaky, funny, and boozy, a perfect Emmy concoction. She's got a great shot of sneaking in. Monica Potter was egregiously snubbed last season for the performance of the 2012-2013 TV season, and while her storyline this year was not as great as her cancer storyline last year, Potter is consistently the MVP of the large Parenthood ensemble, and after accumulating a Golden Globe nod, the Emmys might nominate her this year as an apology for being late to the party. While Emilia Clarke looks to be nominated for Game of Thrones, her co-star with much more screentime could sneak in and steal her thunder: Lena Headey. No spoilers, of course, but Headey has been outstanding this season and is the epitome of the character you love to hate. To round out the top ten contenders, I'm going with Archie Panjabi for The Good Wife. A winner in the show's first season and then nominated twice afterward, Panjabi was dropped last year, and for good reason; her character's story nosedived last year, but a rebound might help Panjabi. She's not as fun or essential to the show as she was for her win, but she'd still be a deserving nominee.
1. Ty Burrell - Modern Family
2. Tony Hale - Veep
3. Eric Stonestreet - Modern Family
4. Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family
5. Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine-Nine
6. Adam Driver - Girls
----------
7. Ed O'Neill - Modern Family
8. Timothy Simons - Veep
9. Taran Killam - Saturday Night Live
10. Christopher Evan Welch - Silicon Valley
This one is a bit of a tough category, if only because it's possible there will be no change in last year's line-up. I have Burrell in first, but only because it's basically guaranteed Modern Family will, at the very least, get one nomination in this category and he's the most likely. I don't know if he'll grab a win this year, though. Hot on his tail is last year's victor, Tony Hale, who continues to shine on Veep, but has actually taken a backseat to some of his other co-stars this season. But the Emmys very rarely change the stars they nominate from a series from year to year, so unless they add another Veep actor to the crowded line-up, Hale will most likely be the sole representative for the series in this category again. Eric Stonestreet's snub last year was a bit of a shocker, considering he's the Modern Family actor with the best track record for the show, but I have a feeling voters just assumed he would get in and thus didn't vote for him in order to throw support behind other actors. I don't think the same mistake will be made this year, but if it is and Stonestreet isn't nominated again, that would be an indicator that Emmy voters are not only moving past him, but possibly the show as a whole, even if they snag the lion's share of nominations in this category. But if anyone from Modern Family is deserving of the nomination this year, it is undoubtedly Jesse Tyler Ferguson who has had a great season. He's kind of the straight man of the show (ironically, his character is gay), but he had a few breakout moments this season that would make him deserving of the win. With the right combination of tapes from him and other actors from his show nominated, he could be the third Modern Family actor to win this category. The best shot at a new nominee in this category is Andre Braugher, who, although not considered by fans as one of the strongest characters on the show, is undoubtedly one of the most well-known and also has a history of Emmy love with seven nominations, two of which he garnered wins. Brooklyn Nine-Nine is also the season's hottest new comedy, so that has a lot going for Braugher, who isn't really known for his comedic work, so this would be a change of pace. The final slot, currently, is going to Adam Driver, who would be returning for a second nomination. Although the buzz for Girls has undoubtedly died down, I still think Driver was the strongest part of this season and he can still get a nomination, and it may seem like reaching, but name recognition after coming off being cast in the newest Star Wars movie might work in his favor. But that might be pushing it. There are some other actors fighting for a slot. I have Ed O'Neill outside the ring currently because last year proved voters aren't afraid to drop a Modern Family actor, and if I'm being honest, O'Neill, despite his veteran status, seems like an easy drop. His character is probably the least flashy, and I didn't think he was entirely impressive this season, although he did have his moments. I have a feeling he'll still get in, but I'm not ready to pull the trigger. As discussed earlier, Tony Hale will probably be the only nominee in this category for Veep, but if voters are paying attention to this season, they'd see that nominations would also be warranted for Matt Walsh and Reid Scott, but above them all is Timothy Simons who really has had a breakout season with his love-to-hate-him character's change of job. Simons probably can't break into the crowded category and overcome his co-star, but if he did, it would show that voters are really paying attention to Veep and overall buzz for the actor. I didn't realize until a few weeks ago that, after a rule change that allowed Saturday Night Live actors to be eligible in the Comedy categories despite the show competing for Best Variety Series, an SNL cast member has been nominated in one of the two supporting categories. While the ladies dominated with nominations for Amy Poehler from 2008 to 2009 and Kristen Wiig from 2009 to 2012, Bill Hader grabbed two nominations from 2012 to 2013. Now that Hader is off the show, there's a chance a SNL male cast member could take his spot (although the same thing did not happen last year when Wiig's spot was up for grabs). However, if any male SNL cast member is taking that spot, it's Taran Killam, undoubtedly the strongest male actor in a cast currently dominated by ladies like Kate McKinnon, Cecily Strong, Aidy Bryant and Vanessa Bayer. But Killam still isn't a huge star in the likes of Hader, Poehler, and Wiig, so while he might one day land a nomination, he still has time to go. The final slot goes to a bit of a wildcard. Christopher Evan Welch is easily my favorite part of Silicon Valley, but tragically, he died after only shooting five episodes of the series. However, due to his billing, Welch must compete here rather than in the guest acting category. Because the show doesn't have a lot of buzz and the lack of Welch's presence in the second half of the season, he probably can't get a nomination, but a show of support for an actor's untimely passing could do tricky things and land the biggest surprise nomination of the year.
This one is a bit of a tough category, if only because it's possible there will be no change in last year's line-up. I have Burrell in first, but only because it's basically guaranteed Modern Family will, at the very least, get one nomination in this category and he's the most likely. I don't know if he'll grab a win this year, though. Hot on his tail is last year's victor, Tony Hale, who continues to shine on Veep, but has actually taken a backseat to some of his other co-stars this season. But the Emmys very rarely change the stars they nominate from a series from year to year, so unless they add another Veep actor to the crowded line-up, Hale will most likely be the sole representative for the series in this category again. Eric Stonestreet's snub last year was a bit of a shocker, considering he's the Modern Family actor with the best track record for the show, but I have a feeling voters just assumed he would get in and thus didn't vote for him in order to throw support behind other actors. I don't think the same mistake will be made this year, but if it is and Stonestreet isn't nominated again, that would be an indicator that Emmy voters are not only moving past him, but possibly the show as a whole, even if they snag the lion's share of nominations in this category. But if anyone from Modern Family is deserving of the nomination this year, it is undoubtedly Jesse Tyler Ferguson who has had a great season. He's kind of the straight man of the show (ironically, his character is gay), but he had a few breakout moments this season that would make him deserving of the win. With the right combination of tapes from him and other actors from his show nominated, he could be the third Modern Family actor to win this category. The best shot at a new nominee in this category is Andre Braugher, who, although not considered by fans as one of the strongest characters on the show, is undoubtedly one of the most well-known and also has a history of Emmy love with seven nominations, two of which he garnered wins. Brooklyn Nine-Nine is also the season's hottest new comedy, so that has a lot going for Braugher, who isn't really known for his comedic work, so this would be a change of pace. The final slot, currently, is going to Adam Driver, who would be returning for a second nomination. Although the buzz for Girls has undoubtedly died down, I still think Driver was the strongest part of this season and he can still get a nomination, and it may seem like reaching, but name recognition after coming off being cast in the newest Star Wars movie might work in his favor. But that might be pushing it. There are some other actors fighting for a slot. I have Ed O'Neill outside the ring currently because last year proved voters aren't afraid to drop a Modern Family actor, and if I'm being honest, O'Neill, despite his veteran status, seems like an easy drop. His character is probably the least flashy, and I didn't think he was entirely impressive this season, although he did have his moments. I have a feeling he'll still get in, but I'm not ready to pull the trigger. As discussed earlier, Tony Hale will probably be the only nominee in this category for Veep, but if voters are paying attention to this season, they'd see that nominations would also be warranted for Matt Walsh and Reid Scott, but above them all is Timothy Simons who really has had a breakout season with his love-to-hate-him character's change of job. Simons probably can't break into the crowded category and overcome his co-star, but if he did, it would show that voters are really paying attention to Veep and overall buzz for the actor. I didn't realize until a few weeks ago that, after a rule change that allowed Saturday Night Live actors to be eligible in the Comedy categories despite the show competing for Best Variety Series, an SNL cast member has been nominated in one of the two supporting categories. While the ladies dominated with nominations for Amy Poehler from 2008 to 2009 and Kristen Wiig from 2009 to 2012, Bill Hader grabbed two nominations from 2012 to 2013. Now that Hader is off the show, there's a chance a SNL male cast member could take his spot (although the same thing did not happen last year when Wiig's spot was up for grabs). However, if any male SNL cast member is taking that spot, it's Taran Killam, undoubtedly the strongest male actor in a cast currently dominated by ladies like Kate McKinnon, Cecily Strong, Aidy Bryant and Vanessa Bayer. But Killam still isn't a huge star in the likes of Hader, Poehler, and Wiig, so while he might one day land a nomination, he still has time to go. The final slot goes to a bit of a wildcard. Christopher Evan Welch is easily my favorite part of Silicon Valley, but tragically, he died after only shooting five episodes of the series. However, due to his billing, Welch must compete here rather than in the guest acting category. Because the show doesn't have a lot of buzz and the lack of Welch's presence in the second half of the season, he probably can't get a nomination, but a show of support for an actor's untimely passing could do tricky things and land the biggest surprise nomination of the year.
1. Julie Bowen - Modern Family
2. Allison Janney - Mom
3. Mayim Bialik - The Big Bang Theory
4. Sofia Vergara - Modern Family
5. Anna Chlumsky - Veep
6. Kate Mulgrew - Orange Is The New Black
----------
7. Merritt Wever - Nurse Jackie
8. Haley Cuoco-Sweeting - The Big Bang Theory
9. Jane Lynch - Glee
10. Chelsea Peretti - Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Much like its male counterpart, this category might see very little overturn, but a few shocks in terms of who doesn't return for a nomination. Much like putting Ty Burrell in first place in the male race, I have Julie Bowen in first because I don't see her losing her nomination. But this was not a great season for Bowen, in that she didn't have that many great storylines that would be worthy of an Emmy win. But a nomination still seems likely. A win might be in the cards, however, for a new nominee on a freshman show, but far from an Emmy stranger. Allison Janney has been making a splash in comedic series and movies the past few years, but she's never been nominated for a comedic work, which could change due to her standout role on Mom. In six nominations for The West Wing, Janney won four times, but can she return for a nomination on a new show, let alone a win? We'll have to wait and see, but I think yes. Her competition, likely, is Mayim Bialik, who would be going on her third nomination for The Big Bang Theory, and with buzz for the show at an all-time high, and no clear-cut winner, Bialik might claim the trophy this year as the show's strongest female voice. Sofia Vergara was really shortchanged on an Emmy last year, not at the fault of voters, but the show's writers who did not Vergara the shining material a pregnancy, like the one her character experienced last year, would have warranted. That said, Vergara is still doing a fine job on the show and would be deserving of the nomination, but her time to win an Emmy for Modern Family is running out. Anna Chlumsky, the straight man of Veep, surprised with a nomination last year, and she'll probably return this year. She isn't the wacky, outrageous character that is often rewarded here, but she does distinctly stand out in the Veep ensemble, and with no other female supporting players making a play for the win (Veep writers: give Sufe Bradshaw more material!!), she'll be back. For the final spot, name recognition and a hot new show could land Kate Mulgrew a nomination. Although there are other actresses who might be more worthy of a nomination in this large ensemble, the easiest to pick out is likely Mulgrew, whose claim to fame is a stint in the late 1990s on Star Trek: Voyager. The show's large female ensemble is competing in either supporting or guest categories (minus Taylor Schilling), and the staggering number of actresses might make it hard for any one to make it in. Still, I'm taking Mulgrew in the top tier. Just missing out? Meritt Wever was last year's biggest surprise winner (I seriously had her ranked last), but that non-speech was the most memorable bit of the Emmys. After a win like that for a role on a show no one is really praising anymore, I wouldn't be surprised to see her get her win and get dropped. It's happened before, and with so many deserving actresses, I think it's entirely likely. I've said it multiple times in my past two posts, but I think there might be a swell of praise for The Big Bang Theory, and in this category, that might be good news for Haley Cuoco-Sweeting, who would be getting her first Emmy nomination. I'll personally say that Cuoco-Sweeting has only gotten better as the show has gone on, so a nomination would be very welcome. Jane Lynch, a previous winner in this category, took everyone by surprise last year with a nomination for Glee, a show most people thought the Emmys were over, and after this year, I'd say that's still the case. But Lynch is well-liked and very popular, and weirder things have happened. But it would be robbing a more deserving actress, say...Chelsea Peretti of Brooklyn Nine-Nine. The breakout character of Brooklyn Nine-Nine is Peretti's Gina, who is extremely weird and divisive, almost in the vein of Jane Krakowski's Jenna Maroney on 30 Rock. Peretti would be following a great path in that comparison, as Krakowski earned four nominations for that role over 30 Rock's run. But even Krakowski missed out on a nomination in her first year, so maybe it's better luck next year, Peretti.
Much like its male counterpart, this category might see very little overturn, but a few shocks in terms of who doesn't return for a nomination. Much like putting Ty Burrell in first place in the male race, I have Julie Bowen in first because I don't see her losing her nomination. But this was not a great season for Bowen, in that she didn't have that many great storylines that would be worthy of an Emmy win. But a nomination still seems likely. A win might be in the cards, however, for a new nominee on a freshman show, but far from an Emmy stranger. Allison Janney has been making a splash in comedic series and movies the past few years, but she's never been nominated for a comedic work, which could change due to her standout role on Mom. In six nominations for The West Wing, Janney won four times, but can she return for a nomination on a new show, let alone a win? We'll have to wait and see, but I think yes. Her competition, likely, is Mayim Bialik, who would be going on her third nomination for The Big Bang Theory, and with buzz for the show at an all-time high, and no clear-cut winner, Bialik might claim the trophy this year as the show's strongest female voice. Sofia Vergara was really shortchanged on an Emmy last year, not at the fault of voters, but the show's writers who did not Vergara the shining material a pregnancy, like the one her character experienced last year, would have warranted. That said, Vergara is still doing a fine job on the show and would be deserving of the nomination, but her time to win an Emmy for Modern Family is running out. Anna Chlumsky, the straight man of Veep, surprised with a nomination last year, and she'll probably return this year. She isn't the wacky, outrageous character that is often rewarded here, but she does distinctly stand out in the Veep ensemble, and with no other female supporting players making a play for the win (Veep writers: give Sufe Bradshaw more material!!), she'll be back. For the final spot, name recognition and a hot new show could land Kate Mulgrew a nomination. Although there are other actresses who might be more worthy of a nomination in this large ensemble, the easiest to pick out is likely Mulgrew, whose claim to fame is a stint in the late 1990s on Star Trek: Voyager. The show's large female ensemble is competing in either supporting or guest categories (minus Taylor Schilling), and the staggering number of actresses might make it hard for any one to make it in. Still, I'm taking Mulgrew in the top tier. Just missing out? Meritt Wever was last year's biggest surprise winner (I seriously had her ranked last), but that non-speech was the most memorable bit of the Emmys. After a win like that for a role on a show no one is really praising anymore, I wouldn't be surprised to see her get her win and get dropped. It's happened before, and with so many deserving actresses, I think it's entirely likely. I've said it multiple times in my past two posts, but I think there might be a swell of praise for The Big Bang Theory, and in this category, that might be good news for Haley Cuoco-Sweeting, who would be getting her first Emmy nomination. I'll personally say that Cuoco-Sweeting has only gotten better as the show has gone on, so a nomination would be very welcome. Jane Lynch, a previous winner in this category, took everyone by surprise last year with a nomination for Glee, a show most people thought the Emmys were over, and after this year, I'd say that's still the case. But Lynch is well-liked and very popular, and weirder things have happened. But it would be robbing a more deserving actress, say...Chelsea Peretti of Brooklyn Nine-Nine. The breakout character of Brooklyn Nine-Nine is Peretti's Gina, who is extremely weird and divisive, almost in the vein of Jane Krakowski's Jenna Maroney on 30 Rock. Peretti would be following a great path in that comparison, as Krakowski earned four nominations for that role over 30 Rock's run. But even Krakowski missed out on a nomination in her first year, so maybe it's better luck next year, Peretti.
No comments:
Post a Comment