Emmy Nomination Analysis: Best Writing for a Drama Series

Hello everyone! Sorry it's been a few days, I've been working a lot and fitting in a lot of last-minute things before school starts again, and in my down time, I've been binge-watching Netflix's fantastic new show Orange is the New Black. But I'm back with another Emmy nomination analysis so let's get to it!

The nominees for Best Writing for a Drama Series are...

Dead Freight for Breaking Bad (written by George Mastras)
Say My Name for Breaking Bad (written by Thomas Schnauz)
Episode 3.04 for Downton Abbey (written by Julian Fellowes)
The Rains of Castamere for Game of Thrones (written by David Benioff and DB Weiss)
Q&A for Homeland (written by Henry Bromell)

Breaking Bad has been able to crack almost every major category except this one, and this year, in a turn of events that isn't too shocking, Breaking Bad picked up two writing nominations while perennial nominee of this category, Mad Men, didn't get anything. That's good news for people like me who think the age of Mad Men is long gone. So how do these Breaking Bad episodes stack up? Well, they're good, let's just get that out of the way. There's no doubt Breaking Bad is a good television show, but compared to these other nominees which could be classified as "event" episodes, the Breaking Bad episodes come up small, even though they each feature significant deaths. "Dead Freight" is a great episode, and it definitely has a chance at the award with that last train robbing sequence. The rest of the episode is pretty dull in comparison, and the final moments of the episode (which I won't spoil here) seem random and a bit frightening, so I'm not sure if that would garner votes. "Say My Name" has a handful of very good scenes, but nothing that is completely as awesome as the final sequence of "Dead Freight," and while a major character is killed at the end of "Say My Name," I would give the edge to "Dead Freight." The only possibility here is that Breaking Bad suffers from vote-splitting and neither episode wins, which is completely possible.

As I stated for the directing analysis, I actually liked this episode of Downton Abbey, and if it is going to win an Emmy, I'd rather it be for the writing, which at least is risky, compared to the directing, which is pretty standard. It juggles the cast of hundreds very well, and every scene feels connected to the major storyline, which kills off a main character in a very tragic way that will definitely pull at voter's heartstrings. I just think it has tougher competition to pull out a win here, and I don't see it winning an Emmy.

Even if you don't watch Game of Thrones, you heard about the episode "The Rains of Castamere," or as it is more commonly known, the episode of the Red Wedding. Without spoiling anything, the last scene of the episode turns the entire series on its head and leaves you with your jaw hitting the floor. When I first watched the episode, I was so sick to my stomach that I couldn't watch the next episode until the following day. A lot of people will question if the rest of the episode is as good, and while nothing will match the epic-ness of the final scene, the rest of the episode is good. Do I think it can win an Emmy? Surely. The buzz is with this one, above all others, and it would be a greatly-deserved win, but I think a lot of votes would come purely from the last scene. If you have no intention of watching Game of Thrones, I suggest you Google the Red Wedding scene and see for yourself (note: not for the queasy).

But the big contender here is Homeland, after having won this award last year, and coming in with another buzzed-about episode. This same episode is nominated in the directing category, and in that analysis, I said that I imagined it had a better shot here. That is definitely still the case. The episode has multiple storylines, but the heart of it comes in the middle during a twenty-minute scene that many have defined as "the scene of the series." It is a fantastic episode, and to add to the possibility of this episode winning, it's writer passed away earlier this year. If Emmy voters are looking to honor Henry Bromell, Homeland, and just plain great television, then there's no reason "Q&A" couldn't win this Emmy.

So, my predictions...
1) Q&A for Homeland
2) The Rains of Castamere for Game of Thrones
3) Dead Freight for Breaking Bad
4) Episode 3.04 for Downton Abbey
5) Say My Name for Breaking Bad

I hate to discredit anyone in an Emmy race, but the two Breaking Bad episodes and the Downton Abbey tape don't have a good shot of taking this one. I really don't think they are the strongest in the field, and there aren't too many other factors feeding into that. Downton Abbey has a better shot in other categories, and Breaking Bad may not win writing, but it has a great shot at directing. But I think this is a two-horse race between GoT and Homeland, arguably the two hottest dramas on television. It is very close to a toss-up, but I'm giving the edge to Homeland. As the reigning winner, this award would also serve as a tribute to a deceased, Emmy-award winning writer, and that can certainly go a long way. Game of Thrones can very likely take this award as a reward for writing the most challenging, shocking, and revolutionary scene of television in the past few years, but Bromell's final piece should take the Emmy.

Evan