Bobby Cannavale for Nurse Jackie
Louis CK for Saturday Night Live
Will Forte for 30 Rock
Nathan Lane for Modern Family
Bob Newhart for The Big Bang Theory
Justin Timberlake for Saturday Night Live
Cannavale was nominated for Nurse Jackie last year, and this year, he is a double nominee here and in the Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series race for Boardwalk Empire. Whether or not he'll have a shot at the win in the other race has yet to be seen (by me), but here, Cannavale shouldn't pose a major threat. He appeared in two episodes of Jackie this season, and I was more interested in the one-minute recap of his first episode than I was in his performance here. He's good, yes, but it's definitely more of a dramatic episode for him, and he isn't a major part of the story. He just kind of broods and talks with Edie Falco, and there isn't any major story or character development, and I don't see him winning here.
CK, a multiple nominee as well, definitely rode the wave of Emmy love he annually receives to earn his spot in this lineup. That is not to say that he isn't deserving of the award. He's very funny during his first hosting gig on SNL, and it helps that a lot of the skits play to his strengths: his stand-up skills, his awkwardness, and his relatability. As with a lot of SNL episodes there are highs here (the standouts include the monologue and the Lincoln sketch) but they are matched by lows (watch the skit where CK spends five minutes blowing a giant horn...it's a huge mess). CK definitely has a chance, but I don't think he'll be rewarded here because this isn't his own material, which I think Emmy voters are more in favor of rewarding.
Forte's nomination is okay in theory. He appeared throughout the season, and was often pretty funny. But submitting one episode doesn't do Forte any wonders, and he picked a rather bad episode for himself while he was at it. Forte has maybe three minutes of screentime and is an ultimate non-factor. He has a few funny jokes, but his turn is not Emmy-worthy at all, at least not in this episode. It's a shame because watching the tape, it seems like such a waste that Forte is nominated when there are more deserving nominees including guest actors from 30 Rock, the show he was nominated for. Don't expect Forte to take the gold.
This is Nathan Lane's second nomination for the role of Pepper on Modern Family, and his fourth/fifth Emmy nomination (he has two nominations this year, the other being in the Drama equivalent of this category for The Good Wife). Lane's original turn as Pepper was definitely worthy of the Emmy nomination, and possibly even the win, but here, there is nothing exciting about Lane's performance once again. He has some funny lines, but overall, his story is pretty boring and he doesn't get to do a whole lot except encourage Mitchell to get angry. I suppose Lane has a chance because he is well-liked, but I don't see him winning for this performance.
Bob Newhart, a TV legend in every sense of the word, has been nominated for six Emmys, and he has lost six Emmys. It is hard to believe that one of television's major comedy stars of the 1980s has never won an Emmy award, but perhaps that can change this year with a guest performance on The Big Bang Theory. In the episode, Newhart plays a TV scientist that Leonard and Sheldon were obsessed with as teenagers, and his performance is quite funny. I think part of the charm of the performance comes from seeing Newhart just be natural and funny, and nothing feels forced. It's a really great performance and the episode itself is really funny. Add in the idea that this award would almost serve as a "tribute" award to Bob Newhart, and there is no doubt that he's a frontrunner for the award.
But perhaps his biggest competition is music superstar Justin Timberlake, who is looking to continue his perfect streak in this category. This year was Timberlake's fifth time hosting SNL, for which he earned his third Emmy nomination in the guest acting category. Timberlake won both times he was nominated here in the past (2009 and 2011), so he seems like a strong contender to make it a three-peat and leave his track record perfect. However, I don't think the episode was as funny as previous episodes from Timberlake, even though he is very funny. His performance is perhaps the most versatile because Justin is also the musical guest, so part of his performance comes from the musical performances, which could factor into the voting situation. He's definitely in the race and can't be discounted.
My predictions are:
1) Bob Newhart for The Big Bang Theory
2) Justin Timberlake for Saturday Night Live
3) Louis CK for Saturday Night Live
4) Nathan Lane for Modern Family
5) Bobby Cannavale for Nurse Jackie
6) Will Forte for 30 Rock
Forte's out of the race, and Cannavale isn't too far behind. Lane would win the award based purely on admiration from the voters of the actor as a person, and not a reflection of the performance. The same could be said for CK, who has a better shot winning for his own show than as a guest host on SNL. But really, this is a two-horse race: the young (Timberlake) vs. the old (Newhart). Timberlake is easily the most versatile performer here, and he has the Emmy history that points to a win. But I really think voters will know that Newhart deserves the recognition for the first time ever, so I'm picking him for the win!
Evan
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