Dot-Marie Jones for Glee
Melissa Leo for Louie
Melissa McCarthy for Saturday Night Live
Molly Shannon for Enlightened
Elaine Stritch for 30 Rock
Kristen Wiig for Saturday Night Live
Jones returns for a third time for her role on Glee, and this year, she isn't a strong contender, in my opinion. Her episode doesn't have a lot to do with her, as it focuses on a misunderstood crisis situation. She gets one pretty good scene early in the episode, and it's pretty sad, but the story is kind of dropped once the "crisis" takes over the middle of the episode. She is present during the middle part, but her acting isn't too showy and it doesn't make a case for her to win an Emmy. It's a powerful episode, but not because of Jones' performance. I am someone who championed a win for Jones in the past, but I would be disappointed if she won this year.
Leo's performance seems the most authentic in the category, and she does a really great job with it. She has a charm in her early scenes, but her final scene is quite...shocking. It really will take viewers by surprise and, as it did with me, not in a good way. Her character becomes aggressive, crazy, and disturbing, and I don't think I'm the only one that cringed at the events of the end of the episode. I think that could certainly turn some voters off, but could also get Leo an extra push to reward an edgy comedic performance.
Melissa McCarthy, who was robbed of a victory in this category last year, returns with another funny episode of Saturday Night Live. Unfortunately, it is not as good as her debut hosting gig. It is still a funny episode and there is no denying that McCarthy is one of the most talented comediennes of the moment, but it would stink to see McCarthy win this Emmy as opposed to one last year for a superior episode. Still, with that in mind, voters might check her name off because she didn't win last year, when she was the odds-on favorite. Don't count McCarthy out.
Shannon is an actress known for her outrageous and hysterical roles, which is why it is shocking to see her so reserved in this episode of Enlightened. She doesn't show off her trademark crazy eyes, and she helps move the story along, but there isn't anything downright hysterical about the performance. I just don't think she'll win here, and given that she was nominated for a show that only few people know (but love intensely), I don't think she's a threat for the win.
Elaine Stritch, with her fifth Emmy nomination for 30 Rock, becomes the most-nominated guest actor/actress in the show's history (Will Arnett follows closely behind with four nominations). It is easy to see why Stritch gets this Emmy love over and over again. She's just perfect for her character. She escapes right into the judgmental, sassy, and crude mother of Jack Donaghy. Stritch won this award during the first season of the show, but don't discredit her for a victory lap this time around. Her story is especially baity and she discusses death with her son, and even shows some compassion. It's a well-rounded tape with plenty of different emotions, and the heartiest out-loud laughs of all the nominees.
The final nominee, Wiig, has the overdue factor in her favor. Her sixth nomination, Wiig is now in the Guest Actress category after receiving four consecutive Supporting Actress nominations for SNL. As a host, Wiig looked like she was right back at home, and voters who followed the show all season know that her episode definitely stood out, and the actress didn't miss a beat. I wanted Wiig to win the Emmy so bad last season, and a win here would be very much deserved. This comedienne definitely deserves attention one day, and maybe this year's ceremony will provide that.
So, my rankings are:
1) Elaine Stritch for 30 Rock
2) Kristen Wiig for Saturday Night Live
3) Melissa Leo for Louie
4) Melissa McCarthy for Saturday Night Live
5) Dot-Marie Jones for Glee
6) Molly Shannon for Enlightened
I don't see Shannon or Jones winning. Their tapes aren't that funny, and don't stack up to some of the hysterical performances on display. McCarthy could take the award, but if voters compare Wiig's episode vs. her's, I think there will be more support for the overdue actress (McCarthy won an Emmy for Mike and Molly in 2011). Leo's episode could be seen as too strange to some voters, but it could also catapult her to a surprise win. But I think the two big contenders for the Emmy are Wiig and Stritch. Wiig is overdue and her episode shows that, even after a year gone, Wiig is still a star. But Stritch has a tape that is equally gut-bustingly funny and emotional, and I think that'll push her to the win.
Evan
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