1. American Hustle
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Gravity
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Captain Phillips
6. Dallas Buyers Club
7. Her
8. Philomena
9. Nebraska
Essentially, this is a three-way race. The race for Best Picture has essentially narrowed down to American Hustle, Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. Each film has received universal praise and a great number of precursor awards from critics groups. American Hustle took the Golden Globe for Best Comedy, while 12 Years a Slave took Best Drama at the same ceremony. Less than a week later, the Screen Actors Guild award gave its' Best Ensemble reward (their equivalent to Best Picture) to American Hustle, further launching that movie's status as frontrunner after a strong showing days earlier at the Academy Awards nomination announcement, leading all films with 10 nominations (Gravity and Slave, by comparison, had one less nomination with 9). Many thought that sealed the deal for AH, but then the Producers Guild of America handed out their yearly honors and threw everyone for a loop when they announced their Best Picture award ended in a tie between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. Now the race is wide open, the first time that has happened in quite some time. Personally, I'm thrilled. With all of these precursor awards and predictability being the way it is nowadays, I am looking forward to an Oscar night where the big award is really up in the air. For now, I'm giving the edge to AH because it seems like the Academy just really loved that movie (it awarded it four acting nominations, only the fifteenth film in history to do so). 12 Years a Slave still has a great chance, as does Gravity (a little less likely because a space film has never won Best Picture, but there's a first for everything, right?). The next big precursor is the Directors Guild of America awards, which are being handed out this weekend. Alfonso Cuaron is expected to win for his (excuse the pun) out-of-this-world work on Gravity, but if David O. Russell for American Hustle or Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave takes the award, either film could experience a huge push. As for the rest of the films in the category, there's a very minimal chance of any of them winning, but if I had to rank them, that's where they'd go. The Wolf of Wall Street had some early controversy, but that seems to be setting aside, plus the Academy really liked the movie given a surprise nomination for Best Supporting Actor. Captain Phillips and Dallas Buyers Club were also both well-liked, but have better shots at being rewarded elsewhere. Her, an early-season frontrunner, will need a lot more buzz in the coming weeks to get anywhere near the top. Philomena was a movie that was really well-recieved by voters, but probably not enough to get it a victory. Same for Nebraska, but Philomena was definitely a less-divise film so it has a slightly better chance. Regardless, this race is definitely down to the top three, and it is the most exciting Best Picture race in recent history.
1. Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
2. Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
3. David O. Russell for American Hustle
4. Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Alexander Payne for Nebraska
Again, this race seems to be down to the top three contenders. As I stated above, Cuaron seems very likely to win the DGA award this weekend which would solidify his frontrunner status. Cuaron had such a huge hand in getting this movie made, developing the technology to make it possible, and even with the technical achievements, he still made a realistically human film that puts him ahead of McQueen and Russell. Still, it's possible those other two can take the Best Director prize, especially since Best Picture and Best Director have not matched only 23 times (out of 85 years). I'll give the edge to McQueen, mostly because Russell has been praised for being an "actor's director," so I imagine his work would have a better chance of being celebrated in the acting categories via one of AH's four nominated actors and actresses. Scorsese and Payne don't have a really great chance, and again, that probably has to do with less overall buzz for their films. I have Scorsese ahead of Payne because Scorsese's film is just a little more exciting, and that helps over a film like Nebraska.
1. Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
2. Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street
3. Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave
4. Bruce Dern for Nebraska
5. Christian Bale for American Hustle
I called way back in November that McConaughey could be a dark horse in this race, but now he has assumed the role of frontrunner. After picking up the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild award, McConaughey is on a hot streak, and with buzz for his film picking up, his chances are only bettered. It would seem that McConaughey is a good bet for the award, although he is definitely not a lock. In fact, this race is pretty close. DiCaprio is second for me, just because his performance (from what I've heard) really makes the movie the powerhouse it is, and Lord knows DiCaprio is overdue for some recognition, so maybe this is his year. Then again, Ejiofor had a lot of early buzz in this category, and there is a very good chance that if 12 Years makes a resurgence in the Best Picture and Best Director categories, that could help Ejiofor out tremendously. Dern's performance has been triumphed for months now, and many liked to think he was a frontrunner, but I never thought that performance would compare to the showier ones in this category. Still, it is hard to deny Dern's likability and his legacy in the industry can earn him votes. Bale snuck into this competitive category over other likelier nominees like Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips and Robert Redford for All Is Lost, but Bale obviously has a heck of a performance on his hands, but in a tough category like this, he needed precursor wins and more buzz to get to the top, so he probably won't prevail here.
1. Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock for Gravity
3. Judi Dench for Philomena
4. Amy Adams for American Hustle
5. Meryl Streep for August: Osage County
Unlike Best Actor, this race seems to have a pretty clear frontrunner who will likely win on Oscar night. Blanchett has collected almost every single precursor award and this category has never been out of her grip since the beginning of the season, so she seems to be a very likely win here. Her closest competitor is Bullock, who could see some residual love thrown her way if Gravity picks up Best Picture and/or Best Director. Bullock's performance, it should also be reminded, is the most physical of any performance here, and the most demanding performance (physically and emotionally) this year. I can totally see the Academy going for that (although her lack of precursor love won't help). Dench seems to be placed solidly in third, but again, I don't see her winning. She is Philomena's best shot at a win, but I'm not confident she'll get anywhere close. A lot of people think Adams is a threat to take the statue, I guess because of her Globes victory of Streep, but this was a performance many were not sure would even get nominated (RIP Emma Thompson's should-been-guaranteed Oscar nom for Saving Mr. Banks). So I wouldn't place her in the top tier. Maybe some residual love for American Hustle, but for now, I'm keeping here in fourth. And Streep is another nominee who many weren't sure if she would make it, and since the movie has the least amount of buzz here, she's at the bottom of the barrel (I'm sure her three previous Oscars will comfort her).
1. Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave
3. Bradley Cooper for American Hustle
4. Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips
5. Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street
The closest thing to a guarantee for this year's Oscars. Leto has dominated the awards scene and I don't see him stopping here. It's the bravest performance, the most transformative, and the most important. Next in line is Fassbender, who was seen as Leto's main competitor, but since Leto has won every award, Fassbender's buzz has likewise fallen. In addition to his public announcement that he would not campaign for this award, I don't see him overthrowing Leto at the last second. Cooper is riding the wave of love for AH, but his nomination was definitely one of the more expected nominations for the film (as opposed to Bale and Adams). He could also ride the wave of buzz to move higher on the list, but not over Leto. Abdi is nominated for his feature film debut, a huge accomplishment, and as Captain's sole acting nomination, it is quite a feat. He definitely has a big arc in the movie, but I don't think he'll get past these other guys. Finally, Hill was this year's WTF nominee after getting nearly no pre-Oscars nomination recognition. This may show that the Academy really does like his film, but I don't think it proves that he's a frontrunner. Leto all the way.
1. Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave
2. Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle
3. Julia Roberts for August: Osage County
4. June Squibb for Nebraska
5. Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine
Probably the bardest acting category to predict, this one is Nyong'o vs. Lawrence. There are a lot of factors going into this race. Nyong'o is the fresh new face. She is nominated for her feature film debut, a bright young African American actress who has a fearless performance in a major contender for Best Picture. She is primarily going up against Jennifer Lawrence, last year's winner for Best Actress for her performance in Silver Linings Playbook. Lawrence is still Hollywood's "It" girl, following the success of The Hunger Games sequel, Catching Fire, and her turn in American Hustle, the highlight of the film for many moviegoers. Lawrence is still extremely big, so a win here would attract a lot of attention, especially if it is a second win for an actress who is only 23 and who won her first Oscar just last year. Those factors could easily work against Lawrence. To put things into even more perspective, the performances are polar opposites. Nyong'o is silent and triumphant, using her moments of weakness to let her talent shine. Lawrence is the kind of scene-chewer that you'd expect to rack up awards. Lawrence took the Golden Globe, Nyong'o took the SAG. This one still doesn't have a clear conclusion. This is the nail-bitter of the season. I'm giving the edge to Nyong'o for now, just because I think there might be a stigma against Lawrence for voters who'd want to reward this young actress two years in a row. There are three other actresses in this race. The only one semi-close to Nyong'o and Lawrence is Roberts, whose fearless performance is her grand return to the Academy Awards (her last nomination came in 2000 when she won Best Actress for Erin Brockovich). She'll need a little more buzz if she wants a shot at the win. Squibb is the veteran here; much like her co-star Dern, she's getting buzz late in life for this spirited performance. Unlike Dern, she has less buzz and less of a chance against two younger stars. Hawkins was a bit of a surprise nominee (although yours truly picked her), and she's not strong enough to take the award.
Check back next week for more Oscar buzz-tracking ahead of Hollywood's biggest night!!
Evan
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