Best Comedy Series
30 Rock
Arrested Development
The Big Bang Theory
Girls
Modern Family
Veep
This is a hard race for me to predict, mostly because I really love all of these shows and some other ones that didn't make the cut, and one other series that I think has a real shot at a nomination. I'm almost sure we can count 30 Rock and Modern Family as absolute locks. MF is the three-time defending champ, and 30 Rock is an Emmy perennial, and this is it's last dance with the golden statuette. Arrested Development's return was heralded by fans and critics, and while some may have been disappointed, the overwhelming consensus was that it was great. The only thing that has me hesitant here is that AD is now a Netflix show, and this is Netflix's first time campaigning original series for the Emmys (it also has House of Cards in the drama races). I think support for AD in general is strong that, Netflix or no, it'll get the nomination. The Big Bang Theory is the biggest comedy on television right now, and with audiences flirting just under 20 million, it's the first real callback we've gotten to 1990s-early 2000s comedies like Friends and Seinfeld, to name a few. The show has already been nominated here before, but it's chances are much better this year, and I even think it has a shot at winning the whole darn thing. But it's too soon to talk like that, this is just a nomination analysis for Pete's sake! My final two predictions are wildcards. When the season began airing earlier this winter, everyone was loving Girls. Buzz was sky-high and some, at least I, thought it was an improvement over the first season. Since then, the buzz has kind of died and Girls' detractors have come out to play. However, this is just reminding me of what happened last season, but look what happened: Girls got a Series nomination, and other nominations for Actress, Writing, and Directing. I'm a little worried about it's chances, but I think Girls will get in. Veep is one I'm a little more hesitant about. It does have a Series nomination from last year, and most, including myself, say the show was extremely better this season, but I'm still not entirely confident it will get in. Some still view this as The Julia Louis-Dreyfus Show, which can hurt. Additionally, it's got some strong competition. New Girl is coming off a hot season, Louie is very popular with Emmy voters as evidenced by the sheer amount of love for creator and star Louis CK at last year's awards, and Parks and Recreation could be a surprise nominee after being snubbed last season for what many claimed was it's best season to date. But I'm going with Veep.
Best Drama Series
Breaking Bad
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
The Good Wife
Homeland
Mad Men
Another hard race because of the amount of competitors and the amount of slots available. Shoo-ins should be Breaking Bad and Homeland. Breaking Bad is arguably the hottest drama on television right now, and with many awaiting its Emmy justice in this race (I personally do not watch the show), you can bet the support is monstrous. Additionally, Homeland is last year's surprise winner, but certainly well-deserved. The second season was a massive pop culture event last fall, and while there is some debate about the quality of the show, there is no doubt that it's one of the best six drama series of the year. I personally have never been a fan of Downton Abbey, but I know it has it's support and while it made a surprisingly strong showing for last year's nominations, I anticipate a drop this year, and I wouldn't even be entirely shocked to see it out of this race. But I'll say it's in. Game of Thrones is coming off its hottest season yet, with everyone (including yours truly) still reeling from the Red Wedding. It's absolutely in the race, and could make an exceptional run for the finish line. The Good Wife is my wildcard pick for this race. After nominated for it's first two seasons, it was left out last season for an all-cable lineup. The show rebounded this year after a bit of a rough start, and is totally deserving of recognition. The only hurdle is getting back into the race after being snubbed, no easy feat. I'm gonna take a crazy leap of faith and say that it can happen. My last nominee, Mad Men, is certainly the show to watch at this year's nomination announcement. Once an Emmy favorite, the show went 0 for 17 last year, and many think the show is nowhere as good as it was in it's heyday. I think it can still pull out momentum for a nomination here, but a snub would be a watercooler moment and maybe some justification for shows that deserve the slot here. Speaking of, contenders to watch out for include House of Cards, The Americans, and Boardwalk Empire.
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin for 30 Rock
Jason Bateman for Arrested Development
Jim Parsons for The Big Bang Theory
Louis CK for Louie
Jake Johnson for New Girl
Jon Cryer for Two and a Half Men
The locks here are Baldwin and Parsons. Baldwin has been universally praised in this role, and at the very least, a final nomination is no stretch of the imagination. Parsons, meanwhile, is a two-time winner and is definitely in. Last year's winner was Jon Cryer, one of the biggest shocks of Emmy night, and while I think that had a lot to do with the behind-the-scenes drama with Charlie Sheen and the "reboot" with Ashton Kutcher, I don't see him going away in this year's race, whether or not you think he deserves to be there. Jason Bateman was nominated only once during AD's original three-season run, but has become a much bigger name since then after starring in multiple hit films. I expect him to get a second nomination here, especially if the Emmys really turn up the love for the Netflix show. Louis CK is regarded as one of the funniest men on television (even if I don't necessarily agree) and I think he'll turn up here again, and maybe even make a run for the win. The wildcard, and another surprise pick for me, is Jake Johnson. After a good first season, Johnson's character Nick became the big breakout character of the season. As his romance with the titular New Girl bumped his story, Johnson decided to submit lead, and it might've actually worked out to be his best shot. The supporting categories can get very crowded, and there is actually room for him to make it this year. His only other serious contender, that I can think of, is Don Cheadle for House of Lies, and maybe it's because I didn't think he deserved the nomination last year, but I think Cheadle is out and Johnson is in.
Best Actress in a Comedy Series
Tina Fey for 30 Rock
Lena Dunham for Girls
Melissa McCarthy for Mike and Molly
Zooey Deschanel for New Girl
Amy Poehler for Parks and Recreation
Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Veep
It would almost be fair to say every actress here is a lock because they have all be nominated at least once before and all are very serious contenders. Last year's winner was Louis-Dreyfus and she's definitely back. Previous winners include Fey and McCarthy, and while I think Fey will certainly make a return for the final season, I'm a little less sure about McCarthy, but I think she'll ride her sudden star status to another nomination, even if some may say it's undeserved. Dunham went home empty-handed last year, but has since picked up Golden Globes for this category and Best Comedy Series. One thing that can be agreed on is Dunham's acting this season was exceptionally better than last year's, and I think even if Girls is snubbed in the Series race, Dunham will be here. Deschanel had a great year on New Girl, and I think she'll still be here this year. And of course, Amy Poehler, who has yet to win an Emmy (I know, I wanna punch myself in the face too). While I thought Poehler's best shot at a win was last year, I think she's still a contender this year and she'll claim a spot. Only contender to really watch out for is Edie Falco for Nurse Jackie, but methinks this is the lineup.
Best Actor in a Drama Series
Matthew Rhys for The Americans
Steve Buscemi for Boardwalk Empire
Bryan Cranston for Breaking Bad
Damian Lewis for Homeland
Kevin Spacey for House of Cards
Jon Hamm for Mad Men
The two locks are Lewis and Cranston. Both previous winners, with Lewis being the surprise victor last year, and with an even stronger second season, he's the one to beat. Hamm and Spacey also look to be here, as Hamm is a perennial nominee (and only that), while Spacey is believed to be House of Cards' best shot at a nomination. The last two spots are a little tricky. Buscemi has been nominated twice before for BE, and while the show's buzz has definitely dwindled, I think Buscemi in general is well-liked and will return for a third time. The wildcard pick is the last spot and I'm giving it to Matthew Rhys. Some will argue Jeff Daniels could get the nomination for The Newsroom, but I just don't think there's enough love there for the show, and especially because of the intense disagreement about the show's quality in the public eye. Another possibility is last year's nominee Hugh Bonneville for Downton Abbey, but I have a feeling his nomination is one of those more likely to suffer from DA fatigue. Rhys is on a new show that has a lot of critical support, and the performances of him and his on-screen wife (more on her later) are most likely to get the show some Emmy lovin'.
Best Actress in a Drama Series
Keri Russell for The Americans
Michelle Dockery for Downton Abbey
Julianna Margulies for The Good Wife
Claire Danes for Homeland
Tatiana Maslany for Orphan Black
Kerry Washington for Scandal
A juggernaut of a category. This is the race to watch this year. In addition to these nominees, there are viable cases to be made for recognition of Elisabeth Moss for Mad Men, Vera Farmiga for Bates Motel, Robin Wright for House of Cards and even Connie Britton for Nashville. But I'm picking these six ladies. Danes and Margulies are the only ones really assured a comeback, as Danes is the defending champ and her performance is as great as last year, and Margulies had another fantastic season, and is a previous winner. Things get dicey now. I'm gonna say the next most likely nominee is Keri Russell, which is shocking because I don't think she has the third best likely chance to win, but I think the general consensus is that she is the best part of her show (I agree), and if the show is getting only one major nomination, it's here. Michelle Dockery can end up being one of Downton Abbey's only acting nominations this year, since I think the show will take a hit. Dockery appears to be the one most likely to return after Maggie Smith (for my comments on her, check the Supporting categories below). Kerry Washington's buzz has been growing all season as Scandal has become one of the hottest shows on television. Washington made headlines last year as she became the first African-American woman to headline a primetime drama since 1974, and combined with her movie-star status after a memorable turn in last year's awards magnet Django Unchained, Washington seems like a good bet for a nomination. My absolute wildcard pick of the year is Tatiana Maslany. For fans of the show and critics who've heralded her performance, it's no shock. Maslany's show, without getting too into detail, is about clones, and Maslany plays them. Every one of them. It's a demanding role, and Maslany does it so freaking well. She's gotten some major pre-Emmy nominations buzz which could get her a slot, but generally, sci-fi shows, let alone their actors/actresses, do not do well at the Emmys. Maslany could be the game-changer, and I'm going out on a limb and predicting her. But Moss and Farmiga are hot on the heels of these ladies. Definitely check out this race tomorrow, it could be a big one.
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Arnett for Arrested Development
Simon Helberg for The Big Bang Theory
Ty Burell for Modern Family
Ed O'Neill for Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet for Modern Family
Max Greenfield for New Girl
Another race to watch, and not because the competition is tight. The only lock here is Burell, a previous winner and the quite-obvious standout of Modern Family. I'm predicting he'll be joined by Stonestreet, a two-time winner for this role, and O'Neill, but their co-star Jesse Tyler Ferguson will be out. Personally, I think Ferguson should make it in before O'Neill but name recognition plays a big role, especially in the supporting categories. Last year, all four MF men made it in with Max Greenfield and Bill Hader of Saturday Night Live taking the last two spots. I'm expecting Greenfield to make it back again, but even though Hader just wrapped his last season on SNL, I don't think he'll get back in this year. For the final two spots, I'm going with a previous nominee and an Emmy virgin. Will Arnett, having previously been nominated four times for Guest Actor in a Comedy Series for 30 Rock, was also nominated for the third season of AD, and I think he'll return again this year. Just like Bateman, Arnett has become a household name in the seven years since the show left the air, and he was easily the standout of the new season. For the final slot, I'm picking Helberg, another surprise. I think the Emmys will really fall for TBBT because it's the first big broad comedy hit in years (unless you count Modern Family, which never reached TBBT heights), and many agree that Helberg had a great year. Hader, Ferguson, and other potential nominees like Jeffrey Tambor for Arrested Development and Adam Driver for Girls have a definite shot, but I'm picking these six.
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Jane Krakowski for 30 Rock
Jessica Walter for Arrested Development
Mayim Bialik for The Big Bang Theory
Allison Williams for Girls
Julie Bowen for Modern Family
Sofia Vergara for Modern Family
Another category with everything up in the air. Bowen, a two-time winner, will definitely be back, even if she had her weakest season to date. Krakowski, a three-time nominee for 30 Rock, was snubbed last year, but sentimentality should work in her favor. Jessica Walter was only nominated once for AD's original run, but the love for her character should make for a welcome return this year. Bialik got a nom last year, and as one of the standouts of TBBT's ensemble, she'll probably be back this year. I think Sofia Vergara will make it in this year, even though many do not agree she should be here, although that's not a diss to the actress, but rather the writers, who never gave Vergara outstanding material this year despite her big pregnancy storyline. The final nomination I'm predicting will go to Allison Williams. Girls got big buzz this winter, and a lot came from Williams and the storyline of her character Marnie. Of the three supporting Girls, Williams is the most deserving, and while some may say Zosia Mamet is the one to breakthrough, I'm going with Williams. Of course, other contenders could also get in like Bialik's co-star Kaley Cuoco, Williams' co-star Mamet, and last year's surprise nominee, Meritt Wever for Nurse Jackie.
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jonathan Banks for Breaking Bad
Aaron Paul for Breaking Bad
Peter Dinklage for Game of Thrones
Mandy Pantinkin for Homeland
Corey Stoll for House of Cards
Sam Waterston for The Newsroom
Another category that doesn't quite have a clear-cut destiny. The only one really safe here is Paul, a two-time winner. Next is Pantinkin, who isn't a lock because he was snubbed last year, but he should absolutely make it in this time around. Banks is Paul's co-star and just like with Giancarlo Esposito, there is a lot of buzz for a nom here for BB's baddie. The problem is the buzz is not as deafening for Banks as it was for Esposito, so I think Banks will get in, but wouldn't be totally surprised if he was left out. Dinklage is a previous winner, and while a bright spot of Thrones' large ensemble, had a rather useless season. He still definitely has potential, and I think GoT is so hot right now that it'll definitely help solidify the nomination. The last two nominees could go either way for me. Personally, I think Corey Stoll is the highlight of HoC, and a nomination would be well-deserved. It will be interesting to see how warm the Emmys react to the Netflix show and if that'll help or hurt Stoll's nomination chances. Waterston is the best chance for a nomination for The Newsroom, and I think his Emmy history (five-time Actor in a Drama Series nominee) along with the opportunity to award this Aaron Sorkin show could make Waterson an upset nomination. Other potential nominees include Dinklage's on-screen brother Nickolaj Coster-Waldau and Noah Emmerich for The Americans.
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Anna Gunn for Breaking Bad
Maggie Smith for Downton Abbey
Christine Baranski for The Good Wife
Morena Baccarin for Homeland
Christina Hendricks for Mad Men
Monica Potter for Parenthood
This category has always been a little out there and home to many surprises, so I'm not expecting this to be the exact line-up at all, but it's my best guess. Smith was last year's winner and continues to be the dominating force of DA awards talk, so she's probably a lock to be back. The rest of the field is pretty even. Gunn earned her first nomination last year, but supposedly had a better season this year, and I think the support for Breaking Bad is strong, so I think she's in. Baranski had a great season on The Good Wife, and while I think people have always just kind of accepted her as a nominee, this year proved she's a real contender. To a lesser extent than Mandy Pantinkin, I think Morena Baccarin will benefit from Homeland love, although I don't know if it'll be enough to get her in this race, and she'd definitely be the surprise nominee here. Christina Hendricks has always been lauded for Mad Men (a show I never really cared for, though I must admit her tape from last year was great). However, from my understanding, she had little to do this year, so while I think she'll make it in, I almost wouldn't be surprised if she didn't. That's okay, as long as Monica Potter makes it into the race. She's just gotta. For anyone who watched Parenthood this season, they'll tell you she had the performance of her career, and I think an Emmy nomination will be a result, especially with such high praise and crucial buzz. As far as who else could get in, certainly look out for Archie Panjabi, a three-time nominee and one-time winner, for The Good Wife, who I'm not predicting because of a weak season. Two other DA ladies could also sneak in, Elizabeth McGovern and Joanne Froggatt (who snagged a shocking nom here last year). But this is the category for total surprises, so if you don't see one of tomorrow's nominees listed here, even I wouldn't be shocked.
Just some opinions. Like 'em or hate 'em (and trust me, I don't like some of these nominees), this could be a good indication of things to come tomorrow. Check in tomorrow afternoon for a post on my reaction to the Emmy nominees. I can promise you laughter and tears, but I can't promise I'll 100% love the nominees. But that's what awards shows are all about. Until then...
Evan
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