Emmy Nomination Analysis: Best Actress in a Comedy Series

CATEGORY: Best Actress in a Comedy Series

NOMINEES: Zooey Deschanel for New Girl, Lena Dunham for Girls, Edie Falco for Nurse Jackie, Tina Fey for 30 Rock, Julia Louis-Dreyfus for Veep, Melissa McCarthy for Mike and Molly, Amy Poehler for Parks and Recreation

ANALYSIS: Previously, I had seen Deschanel's, Dunham's, Fey's, Louis-Dreyfus', and Poehler's tapes. With seven nominees, this is definitely a huge race, and every actress has a chance at actually winning. Falco's tape deals with her character going to rehab, which is a good storyline, but not necessarily for the Comedy categories. Falco gives a really good performance, but it's not that funny; in fact, it's very heavy. It still gives Falco some great acting moments, but I'm not sure if it's going to win her the award. Like everyone else in the world, I loved Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids, but I've never really watched Mike and Molly. From watching this episode, I could instantly tell she was the best part of the entire thing, and I understood how she was nominated, despite all the flack she's gotten for her nominations and win last year (which a lot of people think was just because of Bridesmaids). In this episode, her character, Molly, is freaking out over loosing six pounds for her wedding. McCarthy gets to show huge range: she's a lunatic, she's sweet, she's crazy, she's emotional. She gets funny physical comedy and she is definitely the bright spot of the episode. Having won this category last year, she stands a great chance at making a return to the stage. A lot of people think Fey's time has passed for 30 Rock, and having won an acting Emmy for the show already, she's not owed anything, but here she is again. She picked one of her better episodes for her Emmy tape, where she tries to embrace the New York way of life she often fought against. She gets great physical comedy, witty and funny delivery, and it's a funny storyline. With next season already being announced as 30 Rock's last, I anticipate Fey and the writing staff will provide a lot of great material for the cast member's last Emmy chances, and I think Emmy voters know that, so they may hold off on rewarding her this year. Lena Dunham had a huge breakout year with her new series Girls. She's got a nomination as an actress, a writer, a producer, and a director for the show, so a lot of people could assume that she's likely to win at least one of those, right? So will it be here in the acting category? It's certainly possible. In Dunham's tape, she fights with her boyfriend when he wants to move forward in their relationship but she hesitates, even though all season she had complained about his lack of commitment. She's very very good, and has a few good strong moments including a fight in the middle of the street that has a great line about being thirteen pounds overweight. While I think she's definitely got a shot at winning, I think she's got a much better shot at being rewarded as a writer or director. All four of these actresses (Falco, McCarthy, Fey, and Dunham) all have a shot at this award. But, truly, this award is between the final three contenders. Deschanel's Emmy prospects have been tracked since New Girl was first picked up by Fox over a year ago. As one of Hollywood's brightest new stars, Deschanel looked good for a nomination, and she got it. Her submission tape deals with her having sex with her new boyfriend. It's probably the funniest tape out of every submission, and she has so many good moments, it's hard to count. She's strangely hilarious and heartwarming, and you really fall in love with the character instantly. She is hilarious and she's got a fantastic shot at taking the Emmy home for her first season. Louis-Dreyfus is an Emmy favorite, as indicated by her previous wins for Seinfeld and The New Adventures of Old Christine, and she's back with Veep. While the entire ensemble is hilarious, Louis-Dreyfus is truly amazing. She's outrageously funny on this show, and her submission tape is really funny. She uses crying as a tool to improve her public image, but it easily goes overboard, but it's a treat for the audience. With such a good tape and general love for the actress, she has a pretty great shot at taking home an Emmy for a third show, a milestone that has not been reached by any actress ever. But standing in her way is Amy Poehler, the star of Parks and Recreation. When I first saw this episode, I begged that Poehler use it as her Emmy submission because it is perfect. She's funny and emotional, witty and raw, honest and personal. She's running for city council and she's dealing with a roller coaster of emotions. When she learns her final fate, she's not just acting, she's really feeling the character. In that moment, she's not Amy Poehler. She is Leslie Knope. It brought a tear to my eye when I first saw the episode, and it did again upon rewatching. She absolutely deserves this award, and since the Academy egregiously snubbed Parks and Recreation for a Best Comedy Series nom, this can be their peace offering. While some say that snub may actually hurt Poehler's chances, I say they make them better. So...

WHO SHOULD WIN: ...it's safe to say this award probably will not go to Falco, McCarthy, Fey or Dunham (although surprises do happen and no one ever really has a 0% chance). This race really comes down to Zooey Deschanel, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, and Amy Poehler. Honestly, either of the three of them could win and this would be a satisfactory result, they are each so deserving of a win. If we can have seven nominees, let's just have three winners. But, there must always be one, and I think, this year, the winner will be...

WHO WILL WIN: ...Amy Poehler. She's undeniably fantastic, and her consistent work deserves to be lauded by the Academy.

RANKINGS: 
1. Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation
2. Julia Louis-Dreyfus - Veep
3. Zooey Deschanel - New Girl
4. Lena Dunham - Girls
5. Tina Fey - 30 Rock
6. Melissa McCarthy - Mike and Molly
7. Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie

What do you think? Does Poehler deserve this award, or should it go to an Academy favorite like Louis-Dreyfus or the "It" girl of the moment, Deschanel? Or am I not giving enough credit to Girls aficionado Dunham, 30 Rock powerhouse Fey, big and small screen star McCarthy, or genre-bending extraordinaire Falco? Let me know what you think in the comments!

Evan