Emmy Race Analysis: Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series

In today's second post, I'll be analyzing the male companion in the guest acting in the drama categories. The nominees for Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series excel, above all else, at revealing darker shades to their characters in their episode submissions, making for a juicy race.

Best Guest Actor in a Drama Series
Dylan Baker - The Good Wife (episode: "Tying the Knot")
Beau Bridges - Masters of Sex (episode: "Manhigh")
Reg E. Cathey - House of Cards (episode: "Chapter 22")
Paul Giamatti - Downton Abbey (episode: "Episode 4.8")
Robert Morse - Mad Men (episode: "Waterloo")
Joe Morton - Scandal (episode: "Guess Who's Coming to Dinner")

As the lone "TGW" guest nominee this year, Baker now ties Michael J. Fox as the most-nominated guest actor in the show's history with his third nomination. Baker came back for a memorable episode this past season in which his new wife was on trial for the fake suicide/murder of her friend at a party at the couple's home. Baker, as a result, takes a bit of a backseat in this episode, but he's excellent throughout. Especially viewers with the show, you'll find that Baker's portrayal is the right kind of unsettling, where he is still funny, even charming, although you do not exactly trust him. He doesn't really have any scenes that he steals, but he does leave an impact by episode's end. It's great, but brief, work by Baker, and I'm not sure if it'll win him an Emmy. Bridges, much like his on-screen wife Allison Janney, was a bright spot in the first season of "Masters of Sex," playing a closeted provost at a hospital. In his episode, he is in hot water after his protege Bill's presentation describing his sex study is met with distaste and outrage. He gets a number of great scenes with Michael Sheen and Janney, as he also deals with the repercussions of his crumbling marriage and his guilt over his homosexual desires. It's a great tape for Bridges, as he juggles multiple stories and has a strong presence in the episode. You can really see the heartbreak as he tries to save his sinking relationship with his wife and his position at the hospital. He confides in Sheen's character and really stands out throughout the episode. It's a really solid episode, and while Bridges doesn't get any big scenes, he delivers a quiet, heartbreaking performance comparable to Janney's that could also seal the deal. Cathey was a surprise nomination, but fans have always had a soft spot for his character, Freddy. Cathey's submission is Freddy's biggest episode to date, and gives the actor an opportunity to really give some dimension to the man behind the ribs. As Freddy's friend Frank Underwood's star rises in the political world due to his new position as Vice President, Freddy begins to cut a deal to make his rib shack a national chain. However, to do this, Freddy is forced to deal with some skeletons in his closet, including his distant and dangerous son. As he tries to make amends, Freddy actually finds himself in the public eye when his son pulls a gun on a reporter. Controversy surrounds Freddy and leads to Frank ending their friendship, at least in the public eye, for political reasons. It's a heartbreaking episode for a character who we've never learned much about, and it works that this episode is almost all exposition to Freddy's life. Cathey appears regularly throughout the episode, delivering solid work, and he definitely gets empathy from the audience in his final scenes with Kevin Spacey, as he realizes his possible future of getting rich and moving away from a bad neighborhood are crushed with his son's legal issues. Among brighter co-stars, Cathey does manage to stand out, and it could be enough to surprise and steal the gold, especially from much more recognizable co-stars.

Paul Giamatti guest-starred as an American in the British show "Downton Abbey" this past season, and as is one of many problems with the show, it is hard for a character to stand out in a ridiculously huge ensemble. Giamatti gets some extra attention as he shares scenes with Maggie Smith and Shirley MacLaine, but he doesn't get many scenes of depth and they are spaced so few and far between that there isn't much of an impact left. Of course, Giamatti is a fine actor as has been evidenced for the better half of a decade and longer, but since his nomination does feel like a name-check already, I don't think the tape does many favors to push him to the winner's circle. Robert Morse, a constant presence on "Mad Men" since the show's first season, racks up his fifth nomination, (SPOILERS) his final one for the show's run. Morse's character dies in his submission episode, but it's a unique scenario: his death does not end his appearance in the episode. Morse has some pedestrian scenes in the first half of the episode, and suddenly dies off-screen. He does, however, return at the end of the episode for (and I'm not making this up) a song-and-dance number. It's more of a tribute to the actor (Morse is a multiple Tony Award winner), and definitely outside of the realm of comfort for "Mad Men." This tape is really going to have mixed feelings among the voters. I can imagine there will be some that will love the tribute to the actor. Others, like myself, will be confused and underwhelmed. I think that general disharmony toward the episode might prevent Morse from winning the award, in addition to the "Mad Men" acting curse and stronger performances. He does have impact, but range and emotion aren't on display here. For a tape that got a lot of buzz, I didn't see anything too special. The final actor nominated is Morton, a standout in the third season of "Scandal," playing the murderous and untrustworthy father of main character Olivia Pope. This episode is not the first time we meet Morton's character, but it is the first time we get backstory on the man. He has flashbacks, as well as present day interaction, with his daughter that detail their tumultuous relationship built on distrust. He gets range from being sympathetic to evil, he has loud outbursts and quiet moments, but he definitely does not have the audience's trust. He is sympathetic in some flashbacks, but those moments are tarnished with reveals later in the episode. Still, a good villain turn can sometimes contrast the sympathy that most tapes need in order to get to a win. Morton's performance certainly qualifies as that and he is an extremely strong contender for the trophy.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Beau Bridges - Masters of Sex (episode: "Manhigh")
2. Joe Morton - Scandal (episode: "Guess Who's Coming to Dinner")
3. Reg E. Cathey - House of Cards (episode: "Chapter 22")
4. Robert Morse - Mad Men (episode: "Waterloo")
5. Dylan Baker - The Good Wife (episode: "Tying the Knot")
6. Paul Giamatti - Downton Abbey (episode: "Episode 4.8")

Bridges has the strongest tape and makes the biggest impact out of all of his competitors. He gets different storylines and delivers many great monologues. Morton, on the other hand, has the benefit of flashbacks above his competitors, and is a morally gray character, making for some interesting contrast in his performance. Cathey is heartbreaking as Freddy's world goes from being full of hope to having lost many of the most meaningful things in his life, as a result of his friend's rise to the top. Morse gets the most unique showcase, but whether or not it is the best performance will not be something voters easily agree on. Baker is deliciously perfect in his role, but a small dosage of his charm and creepiness doesn't help his odds. Finally, Giamatti doesn't stick out from the rest of the ensemble barring the fact that he is Paul Giamatti, and his character (and performance) don't make the impact necessary for a win.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Dylan Baker - The Good Wife
5. Paul Giamatti - Downton Abbey
4. Robert Morse - Mad Men
3. Reg E. Cathey - House of Cards
2. Joe Morton - Scandal
1. Beau Bridges - Masters of Sex

Baker and Giamatti are most likely not going to win this category, and they'd have to rely on general goodwill for their shows and themselves as actors to garner the votes for a win. Morse's tape is too divisive, and I don't see this being the performance that finally breaks the "Mad Men" curse. I considered ranking him above Cathey, but I just don't see Morse winning with an episode like this that only has one standout moment that some people may not even like (like yours truly). Cathey, on the other hand, is less known, but at least has a good, substantial episode. Cathey may not be able to prevail over more well-known actors. Morton has a diverse, great submission episode, and "Scandal" is the defending champion here. He has range and impact, but the lack of empathy may hurt him (although it has also helped others win here in the past). That's why I'm sticking with Bridges for the win. It's a great tape that has him juggling multiple stories, each culminating in the portrait of a man whose life is falling down around him. Predicting a "Masters of Sex" actor to win both guest acting categories may seem outrageous, but it's also a testament to the standout performances from Bridges and Janney this season. Coincidentally, there are also two "Scandal" actors nipping at the bud in both categories. I would expect, if Bridges and/or Janney don't win, "Scandal" to steal the spotlight. For now, I'll say that the Scullys (Bridges and Janney's characters on the show) will go home with matching Emmy gold.

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series

With the Creative Arts Emmys approaching this weekend, I'm planning on knocking out the last two guest categories, whose winners will be announced at the ceremony this Saturday. First, let's begin with Guest Actress in a Drama Series, a race with a big frontrunner who might get snubbed in favor of showier performances.

Best Guest Actress in a Drama Series
Kate Burton - Scandal (episode: "A Door Marked Exit")
Jane Fonda - The Newsroom (episode: "Red Team III")
Allison Janney - Masters of Sex (episode: "Brave New World")
Kate Mara - House of Cards (episode: "Chapter 14")
Margo Martindale - The Americans (episode: "Behind the Red Door")
Diana Rigg - Game of Thrones (episode: "The Lion and the Rose")

Burton has been a utility player on "Scandal" in the first two seasons, but the third season let her shine and collect her first nomination for the show (but her third for a Shonda Rhimes show -- she was nominated in this category twice for earlier seasons of "Grey's Anatomy"). She certainly has a very bait-y tape (SPOILERS) as we dive right into the beginning of the episode with a manic monologue delivered to her deceiving and closeted husband, building up to Burton taking a pair of scissors and murdering him in her office. It's a scene that grabs your attention immediately and a beautiful, over-the-top acting showcase for Burton. She's powerful, but delicately balances her character's desires of being in power and feeling heartbroken by her husband's betrayal. She is sent into shock after committing the murder, as her character is heavily religious and this is mortal sin. She remains mute for much of the episode, but her silence speaks volumes. Her next big scene doesn't really come until the end, when she finally explodes (again) and says her husband deserved to die. It doesn't make as big an impact as the first scene, but it exposes her true colors. These are the kinds of scenes that win Emmys, and it could definitely do the job for Burton, who easily gets the showiest tape of the category. Her only competition in that title is Fonda, whose tape doesn't have her showing up until the final five minutes of the episode, where she essentially chews up and spits out every character on screen. It does hurt that she doesn't make an appearance until the very end of the episode, but her performance is the last thing voters will remember. In her five minutes, Fonda is, like Burton, manic and angry, but it also grabs your attention. Burton has the upper hand in this battle of scene-chewery, but Fonda is a legend and that could help her chances. Janney had a banner year on television, stealing the show on two brand new series that couldn't be more different; she is nominated for Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series for "Mom," a traditional sitcom that allows her to be raunchy, loud, and crazy. Yet, her turn on "Masters of Sex" is the total opposite, opting for a quiet, subdued, but powerful performance. It's a testament to how great Janney is, and her two Emmy nominations make it quite obvious that she is worthy of praise. In her submission episode, we are introduced to Janney's character for the first time, knowing only that she is married to a closeted gay man. Unlike Burton's wrath against her secretly gay husband, Janney's character has a hint that something is wrong, but doesn't confront the situation. The episode instead sees Janney taking control of her own sexuality, exploring the study done by the series' main characters, Bill and Virginia. She has great moments throughout the episode that aren't over-the-top, but feel human and you certainly gain sympathy for a woman who has struggled to identify herself. She confesses to have never had an orgasm, and by episode's end, that is no longer the case. She finds satisfaction in a man who is not her husband, yet you feel happy for her, knowing that she is finally realizing what she missed out on all along. It feels like a complete arc in one episode for the character, full of self-realization and demanding empathy from the audience. Complete with Janney's history with the Emmys (hint: they really really love her) and a great tape, Janney is a frontrunner, for sure.

Mara submitted, well, her only option (MAJOR SPOILERS) as this is the episode where her character dies. Mara, whose character broke out in season one as a gritty journalist getting the inside scoop, meets her fate in the first episode of the second season when she is pushed in front of a moving train. It's not exactly an acting showcase, but Mara is found at the center of the major action of the episode. It finds her character continuing to dig for the truth about the corruption of her mole, Francis Underwood, before he ultimately kills her. She gets some good scenes, but nothing that really steals the show, and again, her biggest moment gets more notice for the shock factor instead of anything Mara does, particularly. It's still a good performance, and the impact is definitely there, but I'm not sure this will win Mara an Emmy. Martindale scores a second nomination in this category for the same show, but it's quite obvious that this is a case of name-checking. Martindale barely makes an appearance in her episode, but unlike Fonda, she has no impact in her short screentime. She has tiny, thirty second scenes scattered throughout the episode, but her only scene of impact comes at the end, but it doesn't make a big impression at all. This won't win an Emmy, and Martindale already has an award, so there's no need to award her for being overdue. It's a low impact performance in a category that has much stronger competitors. The same could almost be said for the category's final performer, Rigg. She appears much more frequently in her tape, but is nowhere near central to the story. She appears in the background of many scenes, but only speaks on a few occasions. She doesn't get many lines of great substance, but she is enjoyable when she's put front and center. Still, this is another performance that's not winning any Emmys.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Allison Janney - Masters of Sex (episode: "Brave New World")
2. Kate Burton - Scandal (episode: "A Door Marked Exit")
3. Jane Fonda - The Newsroom (episode: "Red Team III")
4. Kate Mara - House of Cards (episode: "Chapter 14")
5. Diana Rigg - Game of Thrones (episode: "The Lion and the Rose")
6. Margo Martindale - The Americans (episode: "Behind the Red Door")

This race, as seems to be the case with many of this year's categories, can be split right down the middle. Janney, Burton and Fonda have the best tapes. Janney has the total package: she is likable, sympathetic, but powerful although subdued. She gets a total arc and has great impact. Burton gets the showiest tape of the bunch (and from a show like "Scandal," that's no shock), and she definitely gets to show the widest range of emotions. She gets two big scenes that bookend an episode that gives a difficult and, at many times, dialogue-less performance. She's a huge threat to win the trophy. Fonda only has five minutes at the very end of her episode, but she milks them for what they're worth. She steals the show and has a big impact. It's not as great as Burton's, but it still works in her favor. Mara is less flashy in her role, but she still gets impact because of the episode's twists and turns. She is good as usual, but no better than what she's done in the past. Rigg provides some good moments in this big episode from "Game of Thrones," but ultimately doesn't do enough to warrant an Emmy. And if possible, Martindale does even less than that. She's not touching this award.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Margo Martindale - The Americans
5. Diana Rigg - Game of Thrones
4. Kate Mara - House of Cards
3. Jane Fonda - The Newsroom
2. Kate Burton - Scandal
1. Allison Janney - Masters of Sex

As I've said, Martindale isn't winning an Emmy for this episode which relegates her to popping up to deliver some directions and a few pieces of advice. It seems like a severe case of name-checking, which is unfortunate because there are better performances that should've gained recognition. Rigg is always fun on "Game of Thrones," but she's not central enough to the story to get the screentime or story to warrant an Emmy. The impact of her tape (as "Thrones" fans know) doesn't really settle in until a few episodes later. Mara's nomination surprised me a little bit, as I didn't think she would get an award for her brief appearance this season, but her episode isn't great enough to steal away from the category's other titans. Fonda's biggest drawback is that she's not in the episode until nearly fifty minutes in, then has one scene, and the episode finishes. However, it's a big scene where she is at the forefront, and that impact might be enough. Impact also works in the favor of Burton, who has a winning tape, for sure. She's got it all in one episode, not to mention that she's well-liked and "Scandal" won Guest Actor in a Drama Series last year, so we know voters do like these kinds of episodes and performances. However, I wouldn't bet against Janney, who has a great episode that showcases just how good of an actress she is. She gets major points for gaining the audience's sympathy and having a big moment at the end of the episode that'll have voters checking off her name. Janney is an Emmy powerhouse and her performance, while more subdued against flashier roles, has the best shot of winning this award on Saturday, but I would only be a little surprised if Burton happened to walk away with the award instead. It's a real subtlety vs. scene-chewery battle, but I'm picking Janney in the end.

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

In today's installment of Emmy Race Analysis, we're looking the Supporting Actor in a Comedy category, which is seeing some major turnover and welcoming some new contenders that could shake up the winner's circle. Let's examine their submission tapes and chances of winning below...

NOTE: There are mild episode spoilers, so if you are in the process of watching any of these series or do not want to be spoiled about character arcs, episode details, etc., proceed with caution.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Fred Armisen - Portlandia (episode: "Pull-Out King")
Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (episode: "Christmas")
Ty Burrell - Modern Family (episode: "Spring a Ding Fling")
Adam Driver - Girls (episode: "Two Plane Rides")
Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family (episode: "Message Received")
Tony Hale - Veep (episode: "Crate")

Armisen's nomination here is still very very confusing to me, and some of that may just come from my general distaste for Armisen. I didn't love him on "Saturday Night Live" although he did have some funny characters, but by the end of his run, I thought he was stale. I didn't expect a nomination for him here for his variety show, "Portlandia," but I thought I would maybe be pleasantly surprised when watching his submission. Unfortunately, this didn't do the trick at all. The way "Portlandia" is set up is that there are a few unrelated stories weaving in and out of every episode, with a focus on one main story. The main story has Armisen in drag and his female co-star, Carrie Brownstein, dressed up as a guy. That's really the length of the joke for Armisen's character, since the focus in the main story is really on Brownstein's character, the episode's titular "Pull-Out King." Brownstein is more impressive than Armisen, whose shtick doesn't hold up throughout the episode. If he expected dressing up in drag to get him votes, he shouldn't count on winning this award. In the smaller stories throughout the episode, he's fine, but he doesn't stand out. Not a good submission episode, especially if a large chunk of voters are unfamiliar with "Portlandia." Braugher was expected to be nominated here, but many (myself included) also thought his show, "Brooklyn Nine-Nine," would get a lot more Emmy love than it did. Instead, he is the show's only nomination, but he is an Emmy favorite, so it's not surprising to see him nominated here. With that previous Emmy status in mind, it was definitely possible that Braugher could still pull out a win even though the Emmys weren't too high on his show. Unfortunately, Braugher's submission doesn't do him many favors. On the plus side, he is involved in the story's main storyline, as opposed to a subplot, but sometimes smaller doses of his character, Captain Ray Holt, work better. In this episode, he shares most of his screentime with Andy Samberg, who gets the majority of the jokes and Braugher plays the straight man. He doesn't get a lot of laughs and overall, it's not his best showcase. With a better episode, he could've been a threat for the award, but that's not the case with this weak episode. Burrell is easily the standout cast member of "Modern Family," and it's episodes like his submission, "Spring a Ding Fling" that remind us why that is. Burrell's character, Phil, is hosting an awards ceremony for realtors and gets to fire off some funny and cheesy jokes, but his childish charm pulls it off. He gets to do an opening musical number which has multiple costume changes, including drag (which he effectively fumbles through, as opposed to Armisen). He gets some emotional moments and triumph in his final moments in the episode, when he wins Realtor of the Year and his daughter delivers the jokes he is unable to perform due to an injury (and yep, that's a moment of physical comedy). I think sometimes people underestimate Burrell because they've just come to expect greatness of him on this show, and an understated performance like this reminds people why Burrell is the "MF" standout. In this field, he could definitely pick up a second Emmy.

Driver is a rising star in Hollywood, as he is landing roles in major projects including the new "Star Wars" film. It's important to remember his character really started with his portrayal of misunderstood Adam on "Girls," a performance that was easily the highlight of the show's latest season. His submission is not his best episode of the season, but it's still good. He doesn't have a huge amount of screentime, but it's effective when he's on-screen, especially his last scene which has a big emotional impact that sticks through the end of the episode. That said, it's a largely dramatic performance. In fact, he really doesn't deliver a single joke in this episode. It's a good performance, but if you're going to give a dramatic performance an award in a comedy category, it'll need to be a great performance. If Driver had gone with an episode like "Incidentals," where he was the main focus and has some great moments, he'd be a bigger factor here. Now, he'll need to hope that an upset works out in his favor for the win. Ferguson, five years into his run on "Modern Family," had his breakout season as he faced a big storyline, preparing for his marriage and getting back into the corporate world. His episode is easily his strongest of the season as he deals with pre-wedding ceremony stress. It provides some laughs, but the episode's big moment comes toward the end when he confronts his father's discomfort with his marriage to another man. It allows a dramatic moment that audiences don't usually see on "Modern Family," and Ferguson plays it perfectly. As Mitchell, he has always faced disapproval from his father with his homosexuality, and this is the moment in the series when he finally fights back, conveniently right before his wedding. With an episode ending monologue, his character has the biggest impact. Is that one moment big enough to win him an Emmy? Well, there are a few factors to consider. One: this was a big moment for fans of the series, but voters in this category change every year, so some may not be familiar with the story. However, the moment still works even if you're just watching this episode as your first "MF" experience. Two: Ferguson is not laugh-out-loud funny on the show, and he often plays the straight man. However, because his co-star Burrell is nominated, he has the benefit of getting two tapes, and in Burrell's tape, he does get a funny storyline where he starts a new job. Burrell, however, also gets a very funny storyline where his kids play a joke and him, and his revenge (as plotted by his wife) goes horribly wrong. Both episodes help both actors, but Ferguson might be seen as more overdue. Of the three nominated cast members this year, he's the only one without a win. These factors could propel a fourth "MF" cast member to an Emmy win. But standing in his way is last year's victor, Tony Hale. Hale's win came as a surprise last year, but his scene-stealing performance as Gary is universally loved. Gary actually took a step back this season, but Hale's best episode is his submission, where Gary has a great moment with Selina when she finds out that she is going to be the next President of the United States. If you haven't seen this scene, find it on YouTube. You're guaranteed to laugh out loud. It's easily the funniest moment in any of these six episodes and Hale just knocks it out of the park. However, in the rest of the episode, Gary has funny moments but isn't the central focus. Then again, the same thing happened in his tape last year and he's now an Emmy winner. "Veep" is hotter than ever, and in a year with no frontrunner, Hale might be the de facto leader in the category and become a back-to-back winner.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Tony Hale - Veep (episode: "Crate")
2. Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family (episode: "Message Received")
3. Ty Burrell - Modern Family (episode: "Spring a Ding Fling")
4. Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine-Nine (episode: "Christmas")
5. Adam Driver - Girls (episode: "Two Plane Rides")
6. Fred Armisen - Portlandia (episode: "Pull-Out King")

This episode has three "okay" tapes and three "great" tapes. Armisen's episode just makes me question how he even landed this nomination (name-checking seems likely). Driver is a great actor, but his performance isn't comedic and doesn't have an important enough impact. Braugher is great in his role, but this is not the showcase episode for him. Burrell runs the gamut in his episode with genuine laughs, physical comedy, empathy, and emotion. Ferguson gets nearly the same treatment except with a "bigger" performance with a larger impact. But Hale has the moment that will stick out in Emmy voters minds as the most genuinely funny, and this is a category that loves rewarding the funniest performances.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Fred Armisen - Portlandia
5. Adam Driver - Girls
4. Andre Braugher - Brooklyn Nine-Nine
3. Ty Burrell - Modern Family
2. Jesse Tyler Ferguson - Modern Family
1. Tony Hale - Veep

It's the same ranking as above, but for good reason. Armisen's nomination is unmerited and the tape proves it. His show can't compete with some of these other nominees, and there is absolutely nothing special about his performance. On the other hand, Driver is turning in a fantastic performance on "Girls," but it's not the kind of thing I see winning this award. Voters will have to be in tune with this season of "Girls" to know that he is really worthy of his nomination, but his submission episode doesn't show that off very well. Still, there's a chance he could really surprise. Really, him and everyone ranked above him have at least a decent shot at winning. I want to rank Braugher higher because the Emmys love him and could easily give it to him for that reason alone, but his episode is too weak and he has stronger competitors that also have proven Emmy track records. Burrell has a great shot at winning this, and his being ranked in third is based purely on competition. It's just hard to pick between these three, and I'm putting him in third because I think general buzz is on the side of the other two contenders, but Burrell's tape is your stereotypical winning tape and he's a beloved character. He can easily win his second Emmy. Ferguson is the most overdue in this category and has the buzziest episode with a dramatic moment mixed in with comedic elements, not to mention the empathy that sticks with you after the episode has finished. I just don't think voters love the character as much as they do others so I'm not sure he can really go all the way and win. That's why I'm sticking with, at least for now, last year's winner Hale. He's got a great episode, maybe even better than his winning submission last year, and his character is lovable and downright hysterical. But this race is definitely wide, wide open.

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Writing for a Comedy Series

Today's installment of Emmy Race Analysis looks at the Writing for a Comedy Series category, where modern half-hour comedies are facing off against the hottest "comedy" in the race for the gold. Who will win? Let's look at the nominated shows and episodes...

Best Writing for a Comedy Series
"Episode 305" for Episodes (written by David Crane and Jeffery Klarik)
"So Did the Fat Lady" for Louie (written by Louis CK)
"I Wasn't Ready" for Orange Is the New Black (written by Liz Friedman and Jenji Kohan)
"Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency" for Silicon Valley (written by Alec Berg)
"Special Relationship" for Veep (written by Simon Blackwell, Tony Roche, and Armando Iannucci)

"Episodes" is a show that the Emmys seem to like even though, uh, no one else really does. That sounds kind of harsh, but do you know anyone that watches this show? I don't. Anyway, it's about the television industry, so that probably plays a big part of why the Emmys like this show so much. Still,  I was expecting something a little more substantial or special, but this seemed to be a pretty typical episode of "Episodes." The most impressive part (if impressive is the word you want to use) was the sex therapy session between the show's main couple, which had a few dramatic moments, but it wasn't really anything to write home about. Overall, the episode had some funny moments, my personal favorite probably being the conversation between the head of the network and his assistant where there was clear misunderstanding about the use of the word "hard" (think about it). Still, this is not the kind of episode worthy of an Emmy. Ever since "So Did the Fat Lady" aired, I'd heard a lot of buzz about this episode of "Louie" which dealt with weight issues, and I assumed this would be a surefire contender for the writing Emmy. When I watched the episode, I thought it was a usual quality episode of "Louie," but I didn't see anything that made it stand out until the final eight minutes of the episode, largely taking place in a single shot and a single monologue by guest star Sarah Baker, where she dissected society's attitude towards overweight women in the dating world. It's a very impressive scene and a lot of what Louis CK writes for his scene's co-star is brutal and honest, and although not particularly funny, it is very enlightening. The scene alone could grab the Emmy for CK, and the fact that the episode overall is very good and the Emmys love him in general spells out good things for the future.

"Orange Is the New Black" is a show that is probably less defined by its episodes, but more by its moments. Because of the large ensemble, a lot of stories are shoved into one episode and focus is always changing. There may be standout scenes or storylines, but the episodes are forced to jump around to cover the bases, so it makes sense that the show submitted (and got nominated for) its pilot episode. This is the episode from the first season that mainly focuses on one story as we begin the journey with Piper as she heads to prison. We also get flashbacks that chop up the story and we're introduced to some supporting players whose roles are more defined in subsequent episodes. The central focus certainly helps, and we know that Emmy voters really loved the show since it led all comedies in nominations this year. The writing categories have been friendly to pilot episodes, although not as friendly as the directing categories (where, surprisingly, the third episode of the first season of "OITNB" is nominated). Still, this episode has a good balance of laughs, drama, heart...it's certainly in the race for the win. I wasn't expecting a nomination for "Silicon Valley," a show I did not find particularly funny, but luckily, Emmy voters nominated the standout episode of the show's first season, their season finale. This is definitely the best episode of "Silicon Valley" thus far, but in my opinion, that's not saying a whole lot. Still, I could be underestimating a show that surprised everyone and got nods for Comedy Series, Writing, and Directing. But the competition is a little too stiff here for a victory, at least this year. That stiff competition includes a show that, like "OITNB," is making a real threat to the Comedy Series gold this year, "Veep." They've garnered their first writing nomination this year (how they missed the past two years, I'm still confused), and they'd surely be the frontrunner to win, but they submitted an episode that (and I say this as a fan of the show) was not among the best episodes of the season. It's still a great episode as Selina and her staff travel to London, and it brings that biting humor that "Veep" is excelling at above any other show on TV. But episodes like "The Choice," "Alicia," "Debate," or "Crate" would've been much better nominees and definitely could've had a greater shot at taking home the gold. Those are writerly episodes, with "The Choice" tackling a hot button issue in abortion and "Debate" satirizing political debates and the behind-the-scenes jackassery of political staffs. Still, "Veep" is only getting more love from the Emmys and could surprise even though their nominated episode isn't their best display of what makes "Veep" downright hysterical.

Rankings based on strength of episodes:
1. "So Did the Fat Lady" for Louie (written by Louis CK)
2. "I Wasn't Ready" for Orange Is the New Black (written by Liz Friedman and Jenji Kohan)
3. "Special Relationship" for Veep (written by Simon Blackwell, Tony Roche, and Armando Iannucci)
4. "Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency" for Silicon Valley (written by Alec Berg)
5. "Episode 305" for Episodes (written by David Crane and Jeffrey Klarik)

"So Did the Fat Lady" is an excellent episode of television that has its strongest impact at episode's end, so that impression will stick in voter's minds. It also contains an important social message that the Emmys may wish to celebrate. "I Wasn't Ready" isn't a great example of the ensemble show that "OITNB" is now recognized as, but it's a well-written episode that really establishes the tone and charm that had audiences loving this show from the start. "Special Relationship" is not the best episode of season three of "Veep," but this show is the most consistently funny comedy on television and Emmy voters may know that, even if this episode isn't the best display of it. "Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency," by comparison, is the strongest episode of "Silicon Valley," but the competition is just too stiff and the show just isn't Emmy worthy...yet. Finally, "Episode 305" is an average episode of television, but in my mind, I can think of plenty of episodes from other shows that could easily take their spot in this category (like "Beach House" from "Girls," "The Quarterback" from "Glee," and "The Wedding" from "Modern Family", in addition to several other "Veep" and "OITNB" episodes).

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
5. "Episode 305 for Episodes
4. "Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficiency" for Silicon Valley
3. "Special Relationship" for Veep
2. "I Wasn't Ready" for Orange Is the New Black
1. "So Did the Fat Lady" for Louie

This is a very hard race for me to call. I think it's down to the top two, although I see a threat from #3-4. "Episodes" isn't winning this award. There is absolutely nothing special about that episode and it is not deserving of an Emmy. "Optimal" is a very good episode, and I think that if the competition were weaker, it would have a better chance. Unfortunately, it just doesn't stand up to the top three. I've already expressed my disappointment with the "Veep" submission in this category, but it's still a great episode and voters could reward it based on their knowledge of how regularly hilarious "Veep" is anyway. But I had the hardest time deciding where to slot "I Wasn't Ready" and "Fat Lady." I see the arguments for both scripts winning. "OITNB" is a new show with an easily accessible episode that is easy to follow, has comedy, exudes sympathy, and is charming, despite the show's setting. "Fat Lady" is impressive in its final act, makes the audience really think, and sticks with you long after it has ended. I think, in the end, that's the kind of writing that is celebrated: something that changes the way you'd previously thought. That's what good writing does, and that's why (for now) I'm going with Louis CK for a second win here, but that prediction might change before the envelope is opened.

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

In this installment of the Emmy Race Analysis, we'll be looking at the Guest Actress in a Comedy race, where half of the nominees hail from the same show, tapes overlap, and voter preference over comedic vs. dramatic will certainly determine the winner. But first, the nominees and their submitted tapes...

Best Guest Actress in a Comedy Series
Uzo Aduba - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
Laverne Cox - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
Joan Cusack - Shameless (episode: "Liver, I Hardly Know Her")
Tina Fey - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Tina Fey")
Natasha Lyonne - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "WAC Pack")
Melissa McCarthy - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Melissa McCarthy")

There is something to be noted about the episode submission process. In some categories, there are situations where more than one actor from a show is nominated in a single category. As a result, voters sometimes watch multiple episodes of the same show when voting in a single category. As a result, the nominated actors from the same show in that category appear in each other's episodes, giving what some may call an unfair advantage. In the heyday of "Modern Family"'s Emmy success, all four men of the adult ensemble (Ty Burrell, Eric Stonestreet, Jesse Tyler Ferguson and Ed O'Neill) were nominated, so each actor had their own tape, plus three others. Although their own submitted episode was specifically theirs, it certainly helped if they made an impact in their co-star's tapes as well. For example, when Ty Burrell won his Emmy for season two of "Modern Family," he submitted a great episode for himself, but also had equally good performances in his co-star's episodes that certainly helped voters realize he was the most deserving nominee. Is it fair that stars who have co-stars nominated get multiple chances to make an impression? Maybe not. But does it make a difference? I'd say yes.

This year, with "Modern Family" only having two men nominated in Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series, another series took the category dominance award, with "Orange Is the New Black" taking up half of the six nominees for Guest Actress in a Comedy Series. However, in a rare instance, two of the "OITNB" ladies in this category actually submitted the same episode. This, however, is not a fault of their own, but rather a result of the Emmy voting system. Nominated actors in the lead and supporting categories submit episodes after they have been nominated, but guest actors must submit episodes for consideration prior to nomination voting. In this case, co-stars from each other's shows cannot rely on each other to submit episodes that make each other look good, but rather focus on themselves. In this case, Uzo Aduba and Laverne Cox both submitted the episode "Lesbian Request Denied," which is each actress' strongest episode of season one. By a stroke of luck, they were both nominated (I only predicted Aduba to get nominated from "OITNB" in this category), and they cannot change their submission, so each woman is getting analyzed for the same episode. So which actress shines brightest in this episode? That depends certainly on who you ask. "OITNB" episodes are structured to include flashbacks, and this episode highlights flashbacks of Cox's character and her transformation from a man to a woman. It's a baity storyline that allows raw emotion and challenging acting obstacles on Cox's behalf. It's not a particularly funny performance, but the performance sticks with you. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Aduba is hysterical in this episode. Her screen time isn't as lengthy as Cox's, but when she's on-screen, she is unstoppable. She has one memorable scene after another (for "OITNB" fans: this episode alone contains 1. "chocolate and vanilla swirl," 2. "I threw my pie for you," and 3. peeing outside Piper's bunk) and is truly laugh-out-loud funny in all of her appearances. Aduba's character, Crazy Eyes, was the breakout character of the show's first season, and although she didn't get an episode dedicated to herself, this was the closest thing to a showcase for her. It just so happened to also be Cox's showcase episode, so we're in a unique predicament with two actresses submitting the same episode. The question is which performance will voters prefer: the more dramatic but larger and emotionally effective showcase for Cox or the show-stopping, hysterically outrageous, but much shorter performance from Aduba?

Joan Cusack's show, "Shameless," made the switch from drama to comedy categories this year, and as  a result, she retains her nomination in the guest acting categories, but now as a comedic actress. Thankfully, this does wonders for Cusack because her character has always been comedic on a show that rides the boundary from time to time. When competing in the dramatic categories, Cusack always was a quirky nominee, with her performances always being more obviously comedic than dramatic, but now she fits right in. This could definitely propel her to a win, especially now that she's on her fourth nomination for "Shameless." Her episode is great, in which she plays a manic bride-to-be who arranges an underground liver transplant for her barely conscious soon-to-be husband (yep, you read that right). It's about as ridiculous as it sounds, and only an actress like Cusack could pull of the utter insanity of it all while retaining moments of empathy for her character and delivering some killer one-liners. To call Cusack the dark horse in this race would be putting it lightly; she is fully in this for the win. Tina Fey hosted the season premiere of "SNL," and while she is always delightful, there was not a whole lot that was memorable about this appearance, especially weighed against Fey's previous victory in this category for her uncanny impersonation of Sarah Palin. Yes, that was one skit and now she has a whole episode, but nothing is as memorable as that performance. The highlight is probably the spoof of the comedy series "Girls" in which Fey plays a new girl named Blerta from Albania, but beyond that, Fey doesn't shine brighter than some of the other cast members. She's good, yes, but it feels like she's just one of the regular cast members, and that's probably because she used to be one of them. I just don't see Fey winning an Emmy for a performance that's good, but not great.

Referring back to the "OITNB" situation, Natasha Lyonne rounds out the trio from the series nominated in this category, but her presence does less for Cox and Aduba than their tape does for her. Neither episode really helps the actresses out, because while "Lesbian Request Denied" puts a focus on Cox and Aduba, they are barely present in Lyonne's tape, "WAC Pack." This is where things get interesting: Cox gets a mostly dramatic story, whereas Aduba is all about the laughs. Lyonne falls somewhere in between. She gets very funny lines, but her story also elicits empathy from the audience and allows for some more dramatic moments. If voters are torn between Cox and Aduba, Lyonne might end up being a happy medium. The focus on the "OITNB" ladies might be on Cox and Aduba, but Lyonne cold be a surprise winner. Finally, Melissa McCarthy is nominated again for hosting "SNL," but as I've said before, her appearance this time, while funny, is not as good as her last stint, which I really thought she'd win an Emmy for. That did not happen, which makes me doubt that a weaker episode like this could do the trick. Yes, stranger things have happened, but McCarthy's episode puts a focus on her strength in playing weirdos, and that doesn't give a lot of room for range, which voters look for. Yes, she can definitely still win because she is funny, even hysterical at points in this episode, but she's got stronger competitors.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Laverne Cox - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
2. Uzo Aduba - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "Lesbian Request Denied")
3. Joan Cusack - Shameless (episode: "Liver, I Hardly Know Her")
4. Melissa McCarthy - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Melissa McCarthy")
5. Natasha Lyonne - Orange Is the New Black (episode: "WAC Pack")
6. Tina Fey - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Tina Fey")

Cox delivers the overall most impressive performance, but Aduba's portrayal certainly requires a specific skill that she absolutely nails, so that cannot be discredited. Cusack is nuts in her tape, but she gets the all-important range and empathy. McCarthy is very funny, but doesn't travel too far out of her comfort zone. Lyonne is a dark horse, bringing in an understated but funny performance. Fey has the weakest tape of all the nominees.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Tina Fey - Saturday Night Live
5. Natasha Lyonne - Orange Is the New Black
4. Melissa McCarthy - Saturday Night Live
3. Joan Cusack - Shameless
2. Laverne Cox - Orange Is the New Black
1. Uzo Aduba - Orange Is the New Black

The only one I would say has close to no chance of winning is Fey. It's not like she's in dire need of an Emmy win, her tape is just okay, and the competition is honestly just too strong. Any of the rest of the five, though, I can see winning. Lyonne is the dark horse that we really should be watching out for, but I can't rank her any higher because her competitors are just too strong. Still, she can definitely win this. She has the right balance of range and empathy, plus she's downright funny. McCarthy is great in her episode, and with voters nominating her again this year for "Mike and Molly" in the Lead Actress in a Comedy Series category, it's possible that Emmy voters are falling back in love with her. Cusack is finally where she belongs, and she can be welcomed to the comedy categories with a win. She's the most overdue of all the contestants, has a very baity storyline, and she's a well-respected actress. But interestingly enough, this race comes down to the two "OITNB" ladies with the same tape. Cox's win would be historical: she's already the first transgender nominated for an Emmy, and a victory would make her the first transgender winner. She's got a tape that almost has it all, including a transformation, raw emotion, laughs, and a central focus. Her largest obstacle, though, and the one that I think will win, is her co-star Aduba. The Emmy voters clearly loved "OITNB," and anyone that watched the first season instantly loved Aduba's performance as Crazy Eyes. She's the most recognizable character from the show, she delivered memorable moments in almost every episode she appeared, and she's portrayed by a fresh actress in her first major role. It's a story that seems tailor made for an Emmy win, and I think her flashier moments will overall lead to a victory in this category.

Emmy Race Analysis: Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Starting today, it's time for the Emmy Race Analysis -- analyzing individual races based on episodes submitted by the nominated actors and actresses, ranking the actors based on strength of tapes, and concluded by ranking the nominees in likelihood of winning. Today, we will begin with the guest acting categories for comedy.

NOTE: There are mild episode spoilers, so if you are in the process of watching any of these series or do not want to be spoiled about character arcs, episode details, etc., proceed with caution.

Best Guest Actor in a Comedy Series
Steve Buscemi - Portlandia (episode: "Celery")
Louis CK - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Louis CK)
Gary Cole - Veep (episode: "Crate")
Jimmy Fallon - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Jimmy Fallon")
Nathan Lane - Modern Family (episode: "The Wedding, Part 2")
Bob Newhart - The Big Bang Theory (episode: "The Proton Transmogrification")

Buscemi is probably the biggest surprise nominee here, mostly because "Portlandia" was ignored in the acting categories before this year (Fred Armisen grabbed a supporting nomination for the first time this year). The show itself is a variety show with a unique setup; there is one major story per episode with a few smaller, unrelated stories interweaving. In Buscemi's episode, he takes on the lead story as the main character, an advertising agent assigned with "redefining celery." It's a ridiculous plot that only gets weirder (he meets with an adviser who agrees to help him but only if Buscemi's wife sleeps with him), but Buscemi is strong throughout. He's over-the-top without playing it too hammy. It certainly could have its supporters, but I just don't think its strong enough to win an Emmy. Louis CK returned to host "SNL" and won another Emmy nomination for it, but his effort this time around is nowhere close to his first episode. There are no standout skits, and CK, while solid, doesn't get a chance to shine and steal the show. The most memorable moment of the episode is his monologue, which comes early in the hour and basically is a Louis CK ten-minute stand-up special. That's won him awards in the variety categories previously, but it won't win him an acting Emmy. Gary Cole plays one of the straight man roles on "Veep," but he is very well respected in the industry and has earned his first Emmy nomination with this role. In his submitted episode, he doesn't have a lot to do, but he is integral to the two main plots of the episode: he provides Selina with the titular crate that she stands on during her campaign, and he is the character that delivers news to Selina that she is going to be the next President of the United States. Beyond that, though, he's largely absent and doesn't do anything stellar in the episode, so he won't have much to contribute to the race.

Jimmy Fallon had a huge year with becoming the newest host of "The Tonight Show" and a lauded return to "SNL," where he hosted the Christmas episode. Fallon's episode was definitely one of (if not the) best of the year, and his presence is a large contributing factor. There are plenty of standout sketches where Fallon is front and center, and the episode does have a lot of celebrity guests (notably Justin Timberlake, who guest-starred alongside Fallon in multiple skits), but he is not overshadowed once. Fallon has won this category before and he can definitely do it again. Nathan Lane really stole the show during this year's "Modern Family" finale. The final episodes center around the wedding of Cam and Mitch, and Lane plays their friend/wedding planner, who is in an eternal emotional downward spiral as things go from bad to worse to chaotic. Lane gets some killer one-liners, and in an episode that focuses heavily on the ensemble, even in the presence of the marriage of two main characters, Lane is still a standout. He might be the downright funniest of the nominees, but because he has to split screen time with the large ensemble, he may suffer from not sticking out enough. Finally, last year's winner Bob Newhart comes to defend his title with an episode that almost seems like Emmy bait. However, things go backward: within the first few minutes of the episode's opening, we find out Newhart's character has passed away. Newhart's performance is actually as a ghost, a figment of Sheldon's imagination. He has some humorous moments and even gets to have a heartfelt moment or two, a good mix of range. Of course, the sight of Newhart in "Star Wars" garb is funny in and of itself. He can definitely repeat.

Rankings based on strength of tapes:
1. Jimmy Fallon - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Jimmy Fallon")
2. Bob Newhart - The Big Bang Theory (episode: "The Proton Transmogrification")
3. Nathan Lane - Modern Family (episode: "The Wedding, Part 2")
4. Steve Buscemi - Portlandia (episode: "Celery")
5. Louis CK - Saturday Night Live (episode: "Host: Louis CK")
6. Gary Cole - Veep (episode: "Crate")

Fallon and Newhart definitely have the best episodes, with Lane coming in close behind in a true scene-stealing performance. Buscemi's performance is good, but not great, with CK and Cole having okay episodes. I personally think the race is down to the top three. Fallon gives a great comedic performance, playing multiple characters and showing off a new side in every skit. Newhart is a beloved actor giving a unique performance in a role that has already won him an Emmy. Lane is a scene-stealer that should have voters laughing out loud.

Rankings based on likelihood of winning:
6. Gary Cole - Veep
5. Steve Buscemi - Portlandia
4. Louis CK - Saturday Night Live
3. Nathan Lane - Modern Family
2. Bob Newhart - The Big Bang Theory
1. Jimmy Fallon - Saturday Night Live

I'm predicting Fallon for the win. He has a lot of buzz thanks to "The Tonight Show" gig, and his episode is the best showcase of the nominees. Newhart is a previous winner, yes, but a lot of that might have to do with the fact that Emmys wanted to give him an award since he is a celebrated television actor who had previously never won an Emmy. If he wins again this year, it's proof that the Emmys just really enjoy his performance on the show. However, this episode isn't Newhart's strongest appearance on "TBBT" this season (his appearance earlier in the season was much funnier, but did lack the emotional impact that this episode provides). Still, his character has a big influence over the tone of this episode that strikes heartstrings the other nominees cannot. Nathan Lane could definitely trump these two if voters are looking to reward a laugh-out-loud, true comedic performance. This is a perfect example of loud, sarcastic, over-the-top acting, but the Emmys haven't rewarded that kind of performance here in a while. Still, tides can change. CK definitely has name recognition going for him; if voters had actually watched his episode of "SNL" before voting for him to be a nominee, they'd see that he probably isn't worthy this year. Still, the Emmys just love this guy, and that alone can earn him votes. "Portlandia" is unestablished in the acting categories, and while another variety series, "SNL," has had immense success in these categories, their hosts dominate episodes. Buscemi doesn't exactly dominate, and combined with the lack of a track record for "Portlandia," I don't think Buscemi will win the trophy. Finally, although Cole is well respected and has a shot at an Emmy for the first time in his lengthy career, I don't see him getting a win based on that alone. Even last year, Newhart had a lot of buzz, a good performance, and he was much more overdue for an Emmy. Cole's performance is the weakest of the bunch, and I don't see the desire to award "Veep" being enough for Cole to win. This race is definitely Fallon v. Newhart, with Lane as the dark horse.

State of the Race (Emmys): July 24th

Here is part two of this week's "State of the Race" featuring the comedy guest acting, writing, and directing categories. Next week, I'll be covering the drama categories and beginning individual category rundowns including tape analysis! But for now, here's part two of the comedy categories "State of the Race":

Best Comedy Guest Actor

1. Jimmy Fallon – Saturday Night Live

2. Bob Newhart – The Big Bang Theory

3. Nathan Lane – Modern Family

4. Louis CK – Saturday Night Live

5. Gary Cole – Veep

6. Steve Buscemi – Portlandia

This one is a fun battle between an old comedic legend and the hottest one of the moment. Bob Newhart is the reigning winner here, winning his first ever Emmy last year for his appearance on "The Big Bang Theory." This year, he's nominated again after appearing twice more this season. There's obviously still some Newhart love in Emmy voters hearts since they sometimes reward performances and move on the following year despite the actor's appearance, but they've nominated Newhart again. Could another Emmy be brewing? Or was last year's win more of a makeup for snubbing Newhart throughout his legendary career? Indeed, you might remember that when he presented at the Emmys last year and co-presenter (and "TBBT" co-star) Jim Parsons mentioned Newhart had won his first Emmy ever, the crowd gave him a standing ovation. The award might've been more of a "thanks for your legendary career, here's an Emmy finally" kind of deal than an actual award of performance. That's not to discredit the performance, I actually prefer Newhart's appearances this season to the one that got him the Emmy. And if more voters think like me, that might indicate a second win for this character. However, he's got major competition in Jimmy Fallon, who has also won this award for the same show he's nominated for this year, "Saturday Night Live." This time around, Fallon's star is bigger as he's now the prolific host of "The Tonight Show" and arguably one of the most famous comedians around. Additionally, he has another knockout episode that could easily win him the Emmy. This award could probably go in either actor's favor, but I think Fallon will win and add the award as another milestone in an already fantastic year. Still, an upset could brew below. Nathan Lane has been nominated three times now for his "Modern Family" role, but this is arguably the best the character has ever been. As a crazed wedding planner, Lane got to shine brighter than ever this year and had many laugh-out-loud moments this season. That overdue status added could make him an upset in this category. Louis CK is nominated again for hosting "Saturday Night Live," but this appears to be more of a case of name-checking because his episode is really nothing special, so he won't make it to the podium. Gary Cole is just fine on "Veep," but not as impressive as his other nominated co-stars, and in an understated (and sometimes very small) role, he doesn't have the winning formula. Finally, Steve Buscemi racked up a surprise nomination, but with voters really only embracing "Portlandia" this year and an unproven track record for this type of show, I can't pull the trigger on a win just yet.

Best Comedy Guest Actress

1. Uzo Aduba – Orange Is the New Black

2. Laverne Cox – Orange Is the New Black

3. Joan Cusack – Shameless

4. Melissa McCarthy – Saturday Night Live

5. Natasha Lyonne – Orange Is the New Black

6. Tina Fey – Saturday Night Live

Wow, talk about a dead heat. This is going to be a fun one to predict. Let's start with the three "OITNB" ladies: Uzo Aduba has the buzz on her side, Laverne Cox has history and compassion, and Natasha Lyonne has underdog status. Aduba is arguably the show's breakout star and her performance is scene-stealing without being too over-the-top and overbearing. Everyone loves Crazy Eyes and if voters are watching this show, they'll love her too and the award could easily be hers. But not so fast; Cox has the recipe for a history-making win. She is the first-ever transgender nominee at the Emmys, and could make that into a first-ever transgender win. That'd be a huge landmark in Emmy history, especially in an era of rewarding more LGBT characters/actors than ever before, and they might reward themselves by giving Cox the hardware. Additionally, Cox's performance has the most emotional depth of any other nominee, as she goes through her transformation on-screen and deals with the repercussions. That's something that'll stick with voters. Finally, Lyonne was the biggest surprise to see on this list out of the three "OITNB" ladies, but it's a very deserving nominee. Lyonne is hysterical on the show, and she gets a good balance of laughs and heart, often being the misunderstood voice of reason. If voters want to find a balance between Aduba's wild character and Cox's emotional portrayal, Lyonne's performance of Nicky could be the answer. But alas, there are three other nominees with a shot at gold. Two of them are previously-nominated "SNL" hosts: Tina Fey and Melissa McCarthy. Fey is a previous winner here from her Sarah Palin-impersonating days, and she is of course an Emmy favorite, thanks to "30 Rock." She hosted an okay episode of "SNL," and she's nominated again kind of for the same reason Louis CK got nominated for hosting "SNL." She's least likely to win of all the nominees. McCarthy stands a much better chance, since she has a much stronger episode than Fey. However, many of her characters seem repetitive and capitalize on her ability to play crazy goofballs (which is fine, but doesn't really help with the range Emmy voters look for). Still, McCarthy should've won this award for her last hosting effort, so voters could give it to her for that alone. Plus, there's just no denying she's funny. Finally, we have the dark horse of the race, Joan Cusack. Cusack was the only "Shameless" nominee in the show's run before it moved to the comedy races, and she made the move from Drama Guest Actress to Comedy Guest Actress seamlessly. This especially helps Cusack because her character definitely provides more of the comedic elements of "Shameless" with her neurotic habits and over-the-top ideas. She's crazy, but shows emotion and elicits empathy, a perfect Emmy combo. She's never won, so she's overdue and the category switch might be the thing that snatches the Emmy for her. Like I said, this is a crazy race and almost any of these ladies could win.

Best Writing for a Comedy Series

1. “So Did the Fat Lady” for Louie

2. “I Wasn’t Ready” for Orange Is the New Black

3. “Special Relationship” for Veep

4. “Optimal Tip-to-Tip Efficency” for Silicon Valley

5. “Episode 305” for Episodes

With no clear frontrunner, this race could be anyone's. Right now, it looks to be a race between the category veteran and the hot newcomer. "Louie" didn't have a very loud season, but one episode that did make waves was "So Did the Fat Lady," a brutally honest portrayal of weight discrimination in the dating world. That most of this comes from a woman rather than Louie himself is pretty impressive, and an episode-ending eight minute monologue that puts it all out there is compelling stuff. It's a tough subject, but Louis CK is the guy to make it work. On the flip side, "OITNB" is nominated for its pilot episode, which serves as a great introduction to the series and gets viewers interested in the show from the start. The writing categories have been good to pilots, but not as nice as the directing categories. Still, if "OITNB" love is loud, it can prevail here. "Veep" garnered its first nomination in the writing races this year, and with that as its strongest tool minus Julia Louis-Dreyfus, it could easily take a win here. However, the episode submitted is definitely not their strongest episode of the year. If an episode like "The Choice," "Alicia," "Debate," or "Crate" had been submitted and nominated, this might be a whole different race. However, "Special Relationship" is a great episode, but not "Veep"'s strongest. On the reverse, "Silicon Valley" did submit its strongest episode in addition to the weaker pilot, but the writers rightly nominated the better episode. Still, better in "Silicon Valley" terms doesn't mean a lot, so unless the show has a lot of surprise adoration, it probably can't win here. Finally, "Episodes" returns for its third nomination in the writing races as a  show flying under the radar. Personally, I don't get the buzz about the show, but it might be considered the most overdue show in the race and surprise with a win, but I don't think it's strong enough to claim a victory.

Best Directing for a Comedy Series

1. “Las Vegas” for Modern Family

2. “Lesbian Request Denied” for Orange Is the New Black

3. “Elevator (Part 6)” for Louie

4. “100” for Glee

5. “Minimum Viable Product” for Silicon Valley

6. “Episode 309” for Episodes

For a category that has rewarded so many pilot episodes over the past few years (7 of the past 14 victories), there is only one pilot nominated here, but two new series. "Silicon Valley" is nominated for its first episode, although that isn't very unforgivable because the directing in the first episode isn't any better than the directing in another episode. However, it is interesting to note that "OITNB" did not get nominated for it's pilot episode, but rather the third episode of the season, which was directed by Jodie Foster, who is kind of famous, ya know? Of the two new series, "OITNB" is the likelier to win with a bigger name in its director, more love for the show, plus it is a bit showier with flashbacks and merging shots. However, it'll have to trump the three-time defending champion in this race, "Modern Family." This year, the show is nominated for "Las Vegas," directed by last year's champion, Gail Mancuso. I think this episode is more flashy than her win last year, so she can easily win this award. The last ten minutes of the episode are manic with many cuts and merging storylines, but it is handled expertly so it doesn't get confusing for the audience. This is a "Modern Family" win I would definitely support. "Louie" grabs another nomination, but without having seen the episode yet, I can't judge too much. Paris Barclay is the President of the Directors Guild of America, so there is probably some pressure to nominate him when he is eligible, which probably explains why he's grabbed a second consecutive nomination for "Glee," a show the Emmys have moved on from. Still, his stature in the community and the fact that it's probably one of the few standout episodes of this season means he could snatch a victory. Finally, it's the same old with "Episodes," although this is their first directing nomination. Is support spreading for this show that seemingly no one watches? Could that boost a victory? Eh...probably not.